Tuesday, August 9, 2016

Poll Of Tracking Polls; First "Honest" Snapshot Of The Clinton/Trump Race

UPDATE Sept-25th. After 5 straight days of gains to get within 1 point Hillary has sharp drop to minus 4.1 points behind Trump. USC/LATimes. This reflects new ABC/Washinton Post  one off poll showing Trump tied (one off polls lag the trackers). Trump rise partly driven by sharp recovery among African Americans from a week low of 5% to now 15% after Charlotte and President Obama's "I will eb insulted" call effect diminishing

Update September 24th; 22 consecutive days of Trump being in the lead in the aggregate of the polls (presuming UPI/C doesn't go off the charts when they report next) 

I asked 'where to from here" after the tracking polls showed a substantial rise for Trump post 9/11 "pneumonia & deplorables" the answer is, so far, a slow decline in Trump's aggregate lead but not the quick return to the norm of Trump and Clinton being 1-2 points apart and changing lead from time to time.

This is positive for Trump as if he can sustain an aggregate lead he will be well placed for the more important state polls to catch up to this "new normal" if that is what it is.

The picture is not entirely clear as UPI/C is lagging even further behind than normal. Give UPI/C's Clinton bent it is reasonable to expect they will have her 1-2 points ahead by their 9/20 poll but that may drop the aggregate of the three polls below around +3 for Trump.

Although Trump peaked in the aggregate on 9/14 PPD and USC/LATimes are merging into the same at around +2  If Trump holds at that level it looks very good for him

Trump's decline commenced when President Obama made his "personal insult" call for Black support of Clinton especially in the USC poll where Trump's support went to 20% and has fallen back to 5%


September 16th; the bad news; Trump peak confirmed (see previous post).The good news, Trump's decline is minimal as is Hillary's rise.

As detailed below Trump rose sharply post "Deplorables/Pneumonia" to his highest ever aggregate of +4 on 9/14.

That appears to be his peak for now at least and the question is will he decline back to the previous dead heat norm or stay around this level? A question Nate Silver asks today, confirming my analysis of yesterday.

It is of course early days but the good news, so far, is that Trump's decline from peak is in half a percent on average with Hillary showing similar tiny rises across the polls. If around 3-4 point lead is Trump's "new normal" that will be good news indeed as the "one off" and state polls catch up.


September 15th;

Trump +4 aggregate to Sept 14th his highest too date (as usual UPI/C lags a day behind.) UPI/C trends to Clinton and even though PPD and USC show substantial Trump rises UPI/C has a Clinton rise-but such is aggregation.

On polls for the 14th Trump is at his all time high in the USC/LATimes poll at +5.9 and PPD poll at +5.2
This is also a higher figure Clinton received at any time in both polls.

Trump has led in the aggregate of all three polls for 13 straight days

Trump Opens up massive 6 point lead over Hillary after two days "Deplorables/"Pneumonia" USC/LATimes Poll

Trump at highest since July with 6.4 point lead over Clinton new USC/LATimes poll; 19.2 Black support

Politico's Edward-Isaac Doveret "Clinton’s bad weekend won’t rewrite the race' Hopeless "pundits"

Trump leads in every age demographic including  the 18-34 age group.Perhaps surprisingly opens a 7 point lead in the $75k income group while hitting over 50% in the middle income 35K-75K group.

In PPD Trump has gone from a tie on September 7th to a 5.2 lead September 14th

*********************************************** September 12th Week 5;

From "Techno" at C4P

For the first time Trump leads in all three tracking polls.

First post Hillary "deplorables/9/11 sickness poll USC/LATimes Trump jumps into 3 point lead 45.8 to 42.8 Trumps highest Hillary's lowest since July

Massive jump in African American support for Trump from 2.7% to 12.9%.

Trump now leads in all age groups including by four in the 18-34 year sector

Trump at his highest since records kept in the aggregate of the three tracking polls 

Trump has led in 13 of the last 14 days and has 
increased to 1.2 points (in green at far right of table) over week four at 0.7 

Trump has taken the lead in Real Clear Politics Florida poll aggregates which confirms the state poll
trend to Trump (state polls lag the tracking polls)

13% Black and 29% Hispanic support for Trump in PPD Poll

Tracking polls lead "one off polls" but even there the trend to Trump (and more pronounced decline of Hillary) is obvious. CNN

National CNN/ORC poll Head-2-Head: Trump 49% (+1) Clinton 48% A 10% shift toward Trump in 5 weeks

Clinton + 7.3 on 8/10 Now +2.4 on 9/6

Rasmussen Trump + 1 



The clear trend to Trump in these three tracking polls is mirrored in the "one off" polls and state polls which are  (more) slowly trending to  him.
New Reuters poll has them tied.

RCP Aggregate Clinton+5.5 on 8/21 now 


Clinton peaked in the trackers on 8/16 at +6.5% (UPI/C Poll) and has dropped sharply since as also indicated in the "one off" polls charts

​Given the nature of the "lag" between the one off polls (and especially the state polling aggregates)​ it could be well expected that over the next weeks the one off polls will reflect where the tracking polls are.

This reflects Nate Silver's complete misreading of Donald Trump's campaign right from the first days of the primary campaign Silver weighs in that Clinton's lead has stabilized "It's clear and steady" just as the tide has turned now.

Pat Caddell; "Tracking polls tend to be much closer than one offs."

Taking respected pollster Pat Caddell's advice regarding tracking polls it seems highly possible that the aggregate of major trackers would give the least biased/distorted snapshot of where the head to head polling is at any given time.

The various "one off" nationwide polls are showing ridiculous extremes which reflects the underlying bias/distortion caused by how they use demographics.
For example

Voters in 2012 Dem 38% GOP 32% Indie 29% New Dem 35% GOP 26% Indie 39% 18-24 year olds in 2012 19% Monmouth 25%

How polls are done "YouGov Clinton leads by 3 " Dem respondents 48% of those polled 33% were Republicans 14%

Further  proof that these polls are leftist driven for the MSM is that Quinippiac reports Trump and Clinton tied at 43% each in Florida while McClatchy/Marist has her ahead by 15 points nationwide-those results are irreconcilable of course. The aggregate of six non-tracking polls is 
Clinton +10 which gives a bias of +150% over "honest" Tracking polls.

NB; "PPD "The result of the People’s Pundit Daily U.S. Presidential Election Daily Tracking Poll released on Saturday July 30 marks the first time our internal polling data, which helped propel the PPD Election Projection Model to #1 in 2014, has been released for public consumption."

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