LINK
Likely Voters Biden 51% Trump 46%
D/R/I Split not given
Trump Approval 45% Registered Voters; May 25-28
Trump Approval Blacks 8% (Favorability 9%) Hispanics 41%
GOP Approval 93% (+7) Independents 40%
Male Approval 53% Female 36%
Approval of handling the economy 53%
Biden Favorabilty Blacks 72% Hispanics 56% Overall 46%
Comment;
Without the Dem/Rep/Indie split it is impossible to judge these results with confidence. One can surmise there is a Dem respondent bias with confidence though.
Given that Trump's 45% is 1% below his 2016 actual with Blacks at exactly his 2016 support and a considerable rise in Hispanic support (41% compared to 29% 2016 actual) which number has been reflected on other polling this can be viewed as a positive result.
The 53% approval of handling of the economy is remarkable under the present circumstances and bodes well for November when a recovery should be under way. Trump approval with women is his sore point at present, however in 2016 it was also under water but on election day the gap tightened strongly.
Trump's approval with the GOP base is rock solid and up 7 points since March-if anything the media antagonism and bias is making his base support stronger even during an economic, medical and social crisis.
Sunday, May 31, 2020
Saturday, May 30, 2020
Trump's Primary Turnout Mirrors Bush's 2004 Near Exactly As Loyalist Support Outstanding
G.W. Bush won his reelection narrowly in the Electoral College and comfortably in the popular vote. Sabato's "Crystal Ball" looked at the parallels between Bush's surprisingly large primary vote, even though he was running unopposed, and similarly Trump's basically unopposed 2020 primary vote. They found the turnout was nearly exactly the same, allowing for population growth and other factors.
This represented a solidly motivated base for Bush which carried over into the general election and indicates, although of course 2020 has major problems with the corona virus and racial disturbances, the strong possibility of a similar result for Trump.
Key Points ;
"In this respect, New Hampshire, where the Trump campaign made a relatively strong debut at the onset of the primary season, seems emblematic. Compared to 2004, Republican turnout more than doubled in 2020: going from 68,000 votes cast up to 154,000. Perhaps just as telling was that Trump received 84% of the vote in that primary, a sign that his standing with the party was solid."
They conclude, as would be expected from a leftists site, that these results are promising for Trump but in November he would have to do better than he did in 2016.
The charts and full analysis are worth a look, especially because of the striking similarities between 2016 and 2020 at the link above in the first paragraph of this post.
This represented a solidly motivated base for Bush which carried over into the general election and indicates, although of course 2020 has major problems with the corona virus and racial disturbances, the strong possibility of a similar result for Trump.
Key Points ;
"In this respect, New Hampshire, where the Trump campaign made a relatively strong debut at the onset of the primary season, seems emblematic. Compared to 2004, Republican turnout more than doubled in 2020: going from 68,000 votes cast up to 154,000. Perhaps just as telling was that Trump received 84% of the vote in that primary, a sign that his standing with the party was solid."
They conclude, as would be expected from a leftists site, that these results are promising for Trump but in November he would have to do better than he did in 2016.
The charts and full analysis are worth a look, especially because of the striking similarities between 2016 and 2020 at the link above in the first paragraph of this post.
Friday, May 29, 2020
The President Called Black Rioters And Looters "Thugs" And Refused To Back Down
President Obama doesn't regret using the term "thug" in describing the violent rioters in Baltimore this week, spokesman Josh Earnest said Wednesday.
"Whether it's arson or, you know, the looting of a liquor store ... those were thuggish acts," Earnest said.
In discussing the riots Tuesday, Obama assailed the "criminals and thugs who tore up the place," and described them as a distraction from the real issues of police brutality.
Some critics ascribe racial connotations to the word "thug" -- Baltimore Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake walked back the term earlier this week -- but Obama doesn't agree, officials said.
The vast majority of the protesters of a recent police killing acted in a law-abiding way, Earnest said.
"At the same time, we saw a small minority of individuals engaged in other activity that was not responsible that is clearly a crime," Earnest said.
He added: "And when you're looting up a convenience store or you're throwing a cinder block at a police officer, you're engaging in thuggish behavior and that's why the President used that word."
Thursday, May 28, 2020
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Florida St.Pete's Polls Demographics D +R Even:
Blacks; Trump 7.4% (8%) Biden 84.3% (84%)
Hispanics: Trump 40.3% (35%) Biden 51.5% ( 62%)
Registered Voters; Trump 46.7 (48.6%) Biden 47.5% (47.1%) Biden has a 3.5% edge with women. Overall with the MOE this is effectively no change from 2016 with undecideds and turnout the key for Trump.
Comment; A substantial decline in Dem support by Hispanics and moderate swing to Trump. No change in Black support.
McLaughlin Poll May 2020
Trump Approval; Blacks 19% Hispanics 36%
Trump Approval 47% -2 D+3 Registered Voters