Sunday, May 31, 2020

WashPost/ABC Trump/ Biden Poll-Toplines


Likely Voters  Biden 51%  Trump 46%

D/R/I Split not given

Trump Approval 45% Registered Voters; May 25-28

Trump Approval Blacks 8% (Favorability 9%) Hispanics 41%

GOP Approval  93% (+7)  Independents   40%

Male Approval 53%   Female  36%

Approval of handling the economy 53%

Biden Favorabilty Blacks 72%  Hispanics  56% Overall 46%


Without the Dem/Rep/Indie split it is impossible to judge these results with confidence. One can surmise there is a Dem respondent bias with confidence though.

Given that Trump's 45% is 1% below his 2016 actual with Blacks at exactly his 2016 support and a considerable rise in Hispanic support (41% compared to 29% 2016 actual) which number has been reflected on other polling this can be viewed as a positive result.

The 53% approval of handling of the economy is remarkable under the present circumstances and bodes well for November when a recovery should be under way.  Trump approval with women is his sore point at present, however in 2016 it was also under water but on election day the gap tightened strongly. 

Trump's approval with the GOP base is rock solid and up 7 points since March-if anything the media antagonism and bias is making his base support stronger even during an economic, medical and social crisis.

1 comment:

David said...

Keep posting please. I love your analysis