Sunday, December 27, 2009

Sarah Palin's certain path to election 2012-Update

In my earlier posting I set out Sarah Palin's path to election as president in 2012 via the electoral college based on the most recent projections of population shifts.

On December 23rd the Census Bureau detailed these shifts and a demographic and political research firm "Polidata" set out their analysis (as reported in National Journal.com) of the new electoral college shifts based on the Census Bureau's statistics.

This resulted in the following changes for my view of the 2012 result;

Texas will now gain 4 electoral votes instead of the projected 3
Utah will gain 1 electoral vote instead of none
Louisiana will lose 1 (this loss was a matter of conjecture)
Missouri will not lose an electoral vote (this was considered a possiblity).

The end result is that, based on my analysis, Palin will gain 2 further electoral votes (1 Texas and 1 Utah) and lose 1 (Louisiana) for a final gain of 1 electoral vote.

This takes her projected total to 266 electoral votes-4 short of victory. As before this could come from Colorado's 9 electoral votes
or Iowa's 6 electoral votes (Iowa loses 1 electoral vote from 7 but winning it still gives her a 2 electoral vote margin).As before she would have 28 states-well above half which gives added credibility.

The winning structure is as before;

Retain all 22 states electoral votes won in 2008 plus their additional electoral votes from the population shift.Win the states lost by less than 2.5%-North Carolina, Indiana, Florida and Nebraska's 1 lost EV.
Win Ohio,Virginia and either Colorado or Iowa.

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