Thursday, January 9, 2014

"Christie Or Jeb's Name Recognition Guarantees Either The 2016 Nomination" Palin The Only Conservative Possibility

I reproduce below an overview on the 2016 Republican party nomination battle from an anonymous commentator "busybee at "Conservatives4Palin" whose views are their own.There are obvious valid points made regarding name recognition and eventual nomination as Republican candidate. 

On the other hand it may fairly be stated that Romney achieved the nomination through a combination of a divided conservative right e.g. Gingrich and Santorum splitting the vote. Further Romney's massive spend/attack on Gingrich in Florida, after Gingrich's big win in South Carolina was probably the deciding factor not name recognition per se.

However, if the article is accepted as valid in the most part then it would appear that only one person has higher name recognition than Christie/Bush and that is of course Governor Palin. What it further shows is that for Governor Palin to beat the Establishment/high name recognition candidates, four factors have to be in place;

1. Palin would have to declare very early, perhaps shortly after the 2014 mid-terms to build up a massive on the ground team. An early declaration, and rise in the opinion polls, could discourage other conservatives from splitting the vote which would potentially be disastrous. This poll, one of the only ones to include Palin says it all; Palin/Cruz 18% Christie 18% Jeb 10%

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2013/12/10/211208/hillary-clinton-dominates-early.html

2. Palin would have to build a massive "war chest' from the millions of dedicated followers and have them contribute regularly to ensure the substantial finds required for media spends/organizational set-up.

3. Palin would have create a team of seasoned and loyal professionals. An amateur ground-game would not be sufficient when having to take on both the media and the GOP establishment.

4. Palin would have to, as soon as possible, nominate a running mate who could counter both the Establishment candidate/s and show that her team could take on the probable Democrat Clinton. I suggest that Susana Martinez should be that person. LINK
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  • The fact is that the establishment holds all the aces in 2016. The establishment has 2 candidates who are capable of running national campaigns, Chris Christie and Jeb Bush. Republicans have no one that can do that.
    Why is having a candidate who can run a national campaign is borne out through history. The fact is that the people who have the name recognition to run a national campaign usually gets the nomination.
    Highest name recognition nominee
    1976 Reagan, Ford Ford
    1980 Reagan Reagan
    1988 Bush Bush
    1996 Dole Dole
    2000 George W Bush George W Bush
    2008 McCain McCain
    2012 Romney Romney
    Another reason for this is simple. take a look at the likely primary schedule in 2016.
    Jan 16 Iowa
    Jan 26 New Hampshire
    Feb 6 Nevada
    Frb 13 South Carolina
    Feb 23 Arizona, Michigan
    Mar 1 American Samoa Territorial Caucus, Colorado Precinct Caucus, Georgia, Massachusetts
    Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Vermont
    Essentially what you are doing is running for statewide office in each of these states. In Iowa, Ted Cruz gets a 45% don't know, Marco Rubio has 45% don't know, Rand Paul has a high 31% don't know, on the other hand Chris Christie has a 15% don't know. This means that even in Iowa, people know who Christie is while to varying degrees it is Ted who?, Rand who?, and Marco who? That means that Cruz and Rand Paul will have to stick exclusively to Iowa while Christie can go to Iow, NH, Arizona, and Michigan if he wanted. Cruz and Paul would have 10 days in NH, 10 in Nevada, 7 in South Carolina, and a maximum of 10 days to be divided between 2 states. Then a week later the schedule expands geometrically. What would be the odds of winning these states? Probably lower than ND's temperatures during the polar vertex.
    In addition, there are a number of things that have to be done between September and December of 2015. Such as filling delegate slates in Illinois, and gathering signatures in Virginia to get on the ballot to name a couple.
    This has to be done despite the lack of name recognition. In 2012, only Ron Paul and Mitt Romney got on the Virginia ballot. Bachmann, Perry, and Santorum failed. Only Romney got a full slate of delegates in Illinois. Another advantage for Jeb and Christie.
    The odds are that the Republican nominee will be Chris Christie or Jeb Bush. Palin will be on Fox saying only that they are better than Hillary. That's like asking which you would prefer,
    arsenic or cyanide? Both are fatal yet with one you have a little bit more time.

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