Also at Palin4President2016
Abandoning
Michigan in the heat of the election was seen by major
observers as presidential candidate John McCain effectively throwing
in the towel.It also marked a very severe break with the strategists
of McCain team ("McCain's tactically understandable but
strategically stupid decision to visibly abandon Michigan was made
without Palin.") by his running mate Governor Sarah Palin
who, very publicly, decried the move.
"Sarah
Palin questioned Republican presidential candidate John McCain's
decision to abandon efforts to win Michigan, a campaign move she said
she learned about Friday morning when she read it in the newspapers.
In
an interview with Fox News, the Alaska governor said she was
disappointed that the McCain campaign decided to stop competing in
Michigan. In an indication that the vice presidential candidate had
not been part of the decision, she said she had “read that this
morning, and I fired off a quick e-mail” questioning the move.
“Todd
and I, we'd be happy to get to Michigan and walk through those plants
of the car manufacturers,” Palin said. “We'd be so happy to get
to speak to the people in Michigan who are hurting because the
economy is hurting.”
Chuck
Yob, the Republican National Committee Member from Michigan for
nearly twenty years in an heartfelt plea also decried the
abandonment of Michigan which he expressed in an open
letter to Palin;
"Governor
Palin,I saw your comments on Fox News today and described in the
Detroit Free Press article below. I wholeheartedly agree with
you that the decision by the McCain campaign to pull out of Michigan
was the wrong decision."
Palin
continued to show her support for Michigan by, very symbolically,
kicking the tour off in Grand Rapids for the massive "Going
Rogue (with its echoes of Michigan in the title) book tour
launch and in her major
support ("Sarah
Palin says Republicans should have stayed in Michigan") of
the Republican candidates there in the 2010 mid-terms "My
heart goes out to you. The rest of us will not abandon Michigan."
So
who was right, the McCain team or Governor Palin if the
Electoral College future of the GOP is taken into consideration? The
subsequent electoral history and immediate prospects give
an indication.
The
now Governor Snyder won election in 2010 in a
landslide, succeeding a Democrat in a state that has gone solidly
for the Dem's, the last
six presidential elections in a row, with
58 percent of the vote. With
Snyder's election in 2010, Republicans gained a majority in the
Michigan House and increased the Republican majority held in the
Michigan Senate.
In
a result so unprecedented in its nature that the effects may
be profound, the city of Detroit elected its first White mayor
in four
decades. If Mayor Duggan helps turn around the terrible problems
the city faces the comment from one Black voter "It's
all about who can do the job. It's not about color" may
have statewide, and possibly nationwide, ramifications.
The
2014 mid-terms will be the next test of the possible changing
fortunes for the GOP in Michigan; It is significant that Americans
for Prosperity see it that way and
are providing substantial resources to
the campaign.
"The
Michigan Senate race was supposed to be an easy win for Democratic
Rep. Gary Peters, but former Republican Secretary of State Terri Lynn
Land has taken a commanding lead in the latest poll released Monday
over her Democratic counterpart." That
report was from the conservative leaning Harper Poll which
gave Land an eight point lead. On the other hand PPP
Polling, the well known Dem leaning outfit, in typical
PPP speak, has Land ahead by two (and Snyder also ahead in his bid
for re-election) "The
somewhat popular Terri Lynn Land edges Gary Peters for Senate, 42-40,
and still fairly unpopular Gov. Rick Snyder tops Mark Schauer,
44-40." If
we do an average as per the much vaunted 538.com methodology it gives
Land a five point lead.
If
Goveror Palin was right strategically in 2008, and in her remarks in
2010, and there is a marked swing to the Republicans in
Michigan what significant effect might that have on
the 2016 presidential elections? If there is a continued swing
and the previously monolithic Black support for the
Democrats eases then the result could be
very significant indeed.
If
it is assumed that the GOP wins Florida (if Florida is lost then
there is no possibility of a Republican win) and Ohio,
then even with the loss of Virginia, which even the most
sanguine Republic has to view as marginal given the
demographic changes in the state, if Michigan can be
won the path to Electoral College victory, albeit by the
slimmest of margins, is possible-an intriguing prospect.
Even
with the loss of Virginia/Colorado/Iowa/New Mexico/Nevada there would
be a tie in the Electoral College. At that point the GOP, with the
majority of state delegations in the House of Representatives would
have their candidate chosen as per the constitution. A win in
any of the four states from Iowa to Nevada assigned to the Dem's
in the map below would of course provide a clear win as would
Virginia.
It
might also be considered that given her long standing commitment
to Michigan both in the 2008 campaign and
subsequently Governor Palin might be the ideal candidate to
have the state move to the GOP-perhaps with Governor Snyder
as part of the team. The 2014 mid-terms in Michigan will
possibly be highly significant not only for possibly
providing the GOP with their majority in the senate but
also their subsequent majority in the Electoral College
in 2016 more than compensating for possible loss of Virginia.
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