YouGov May 22nd (prior to Biden's "you ain't Black if you vote for Trump gaffe) in a D+7 Registered Voters poll
Democrat 33%
Republican 26%
Independent 29%
Other 3%
Not sure 9%
Trump versus Biden;
Blacks;
Biden 74%
Trump 18%
Third party 3%
Undecided 5%
Don't Know 2%
This, if it actually represents Black preference in November would be an utter disaster for Biden and the Dems. Trump received 8% of the 2016 black vote Hillary 88% which, along with Kerry, was the lowest for a Dem in a two party contest since 1988.
With 8% plus stay at homes in 2016 Trump won Michigan and Pennsylvania even though the Black turnout in Philadelphia was at near Obama levels. At 18%, or anywhere near that figure, Trump would, at least, repeat his 306 Electoral College victory and win those states by even bigger popular vote margins
In the same poll Hispanics were 36% Trump compared to his 29% in 2016.
In the head to head poll Biden leads 46% to 42% with 6% undecided 4% Third party 2% Would Not Vote. As usual it is Trump's support, or lack of it with women which is bringing his overall numbers down Trump 37% Biden 49% a 12 point margin which has been reflected in numerous polling.
Of the 10% up for grabs Trump only needs 4% to equal his 2016 popular vote tally. If the Black support is anywhere near what this polls says it would be more than enough given the Dems "wasted vote" in California and New York.
Trump Approval All Voters 43%
No comments:
Post a Comment