History Of Winning GOP Senate Candidate Joni Ernst Poll Leap From 18% To 56% After Palin's Early Endorsement

Here is the full polling and endorsement history of Governor Palin's and Joni Ernst's triumph in Iowa. The early endorsement date belies the leftist myth that "Palin only endorses when the candidate is a sure thing" and the equally silly comment that "Palin endorses and doesn't follow up by campaign support. 

The final result-a landslide of epic proportions;

Iowa Senate - Republican Primary (June 3)

Poll	Date	Sample	Ernst	Jacobs	Clovis	Whitaker	Schaben	Spread
RCP Average	4/3 - 4/14	--	22.0	20.7	6.7	5.0	2.3	Ernst +1.3
WFB/The Polling Company (R)	4/13 - 4/14	223 RV	23	20	6	7	2	Ernst +3
Loras College	4/7 - 4/8	600 LV	18	19	7	4	4	Jacobs +1

Above is the previous polling from 
Real Clear Politics which tracks polls. 

Governor Palin endorsed Joni Ernst as candidate for the GOP nomination for senator from Iowa on
March 26th
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/03/26/Sarah-Palin-Endorses-Joni-Ernst-for-U-S-Senate-in-Iowa

As that endorsement worked its way through Ernst went from second place at 18% to first place at 23% a +3 point lead.

In this latest poll from Harper polling Ernst has extended her lead to + 10 points 33% to 23%
 Harper Polling on behalf of American Heartland PAC 

Harper Polling

Iowa Senate GOP Primary Poll on behalf of American Heartland PAC

TO:                 Interested Parties
FROM:           Brock McCleary, President
DATE:            May 2, 2014
RE:                 Key Findings – Iowa Senate Republican Primary Survey

In the Iowa Republican primary race for Senate, Joni Ernst holds a 10% lead over her nearest competitor, Mark Jacobs.  Ernst’s ballot strength is underscored by an image rating of 54% favorable-to-11% unfavorable.

Ernst runs strongest in the Des Moines media market where she leads by 30% over Jacobs (45%-15%).  In the Cedar Rapids market, Ernst leads by 7% (35%-28%).  Jacobs leads in the Davenport market by 22% over Ernst and Sam Clovis.  Clovis holds a 21% lead in the Sioux City market.

Ernst’s lead is nearly identical among both tea party (+9%) and non-tea party voters (+10%).

                   Tea Party       Non-Tea Party
Ernst              31%                 36%
Jacobs            22%                26%
Clovis             18%                 6%
Whitaker       3%                   6%
Schaben         2%                   0%


Self-identified “very conservative” and “somewhat conservative” voters hold overwhelmingly favorable opinions of Joni Ernst.

                                                            Ernst Favorable       Ernst Unfavorable
            Very Conservative              55%                             11%
            Somewhat Conservative    59%                             9%



In summary, with a month to go before the election, Joni Ernst is well-positioned to be the Republican nominee for Senate in Iowa.

Ballot Test

Q: If the Republican primary election for Senate were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for: Sam Clovis, Joni Ernst, Mark Jacobs, Scott Schaben or Matt Whitaker?

Q: If the Republican primary election for Senate were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for: Sam Clovis, Joni Ernst, Mark Jacobs, Scott Schaben or Matt Whitaker?

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RCP POLL TO MAY 19th Ernst extends lead to 16 points. This a 16 point increase from the 18% Ernst had prior to Gov.Palin's endorsement

FINAL POLL IN 'BELLWEATHER' DISTRICTS+20points

"Five-way GOP race in Iowa Suffolk poll:

Ernst led all four of her Republican opponents—businessmen Mark Jacobs and Scott Schaben, radio show host Sam Clovis and former U.S. attorney Matt Whitaker—by between 20 and 34 percent. The November election will pit the Republican nominee against Democratic Congressman Bruce Braley, who is unopposed in the Democratic primary, as well as independent and third-party candidates also vying for the Senate seat."

ERNST ENDORSEMENT DATES

PALIN MARCH 26TH

MARCO RUBIO MAY 7th

GARY BAUER MAY 8th

RICK SANTORUM ENDORSES CLOVIS MAY14th

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VIDEO; (cut and paste to link)

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/elections/2014/04/27/sarah-palin-joni-ernst-iowa/8311707/

DES MOINES REGISTER

Sarah Palin lends star power to Joni Ernst in Iowa

This is the 4th in a series of endorsements by Governor Palin, where she has made the endorsement well ahead of election day and has committed to campaigning, which has seen remarkable movements soon after-from last place to first and then in some instances to substantial leads.

Karen Handel for Georgia LINK  (400% surge)

Ben Sasse for Nebraska LINK   (15 point turnaround)

T W Shannon for Oklahoma LINK   (46 point leap!)

Update:Palin Hails Brave Handel Who Falls Short By 3.6 Points:Georgia Senate Candidate Handel Surges 400% From Last To Virtual Tie After Palin Endorsement

As Governor Palin stated in her Facebook post comments on Karen Handel's brave run she did remarkably well as set out below-going from dead last on 5% prior to Palin's endorsement to just missing out on the run off by 3.6 points at 22% on election day. Handel was massively outspent and the conservative vote was, once again, split. Both Handel and Palin can be very proud of their efforts.

"A special thanks tonight to Georgia senate candidate Karen Handel for having the courage to jump into the ring and fight for what is right. Our nation becomes a better nation when good candidates like Karen come forward and offer to serve for the right reasons. The party of Lincoln and Reagan needs more strong, confident conservative women like her. Teddy Roosevelt's quote about the man – or woman – “in the arena” is applicable here: God bless the candidate “who strives valiantly,” and “if [she] fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that [her] place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”


********************************************************************
Mirroring Governor Palin's previous endorsement success for Ben Sasse in Nebraska (LINK) and T W Shannon in Oklahoma, Georgia 2014 senate candidate Karen Handel's remarkable polling rise is yet another tribute to the "Power of Palin." 

Below is the remarkable, and undeniable history of Handel moving from a negative point position prior to Palin's endorsement, (which history I set out below) to, as of today, a virtual tie for the 16 lead-a point turnaround.

This is the next in a long line of "Palin effect" turnarounds coming fast on the heels of the almost miraculous 46 point! turnaround for Oklahoma senate candidate T W Shannon-you can read about it at this link; http://tinyurl.com/lj5hyhz

What makes the latest episode in Palin power particularly salient, is that it comes at the exact moment the "Lame Stream Media is trying desperately to, once again, take her down. Over the last week there have been stories from well known political commentators along the lines of "Palin is "diminished" a spent force, doesn't attract the crowds like she used to and etc. 

The photo below, of Palin addressing a massive crowd of 1000 in Tulsa for T W Shannon, after having attended a sold out $500 a table dinner in Alabama, shows how ludicrous that line of propaganda is.The facts speak for themselves, the leftist media speaks with forked tongues.

Karen Handel was in last place on 5% and 12 points behind leader David Purdue on March 23rd (See RCP Poll compilation below)

March 27th 

Sarah Palin endorses Karen Handel for U.S. Senate LINK

April 3rd

Palin campaigns for Handel in Ga. Senate race LINK

April 16th Handel jumps to 13% now  in third place 

April 27th Handel Jumps to 15% still in  third place

April 29th Handel Jumps to 21% now in second place 1 point behind
May 7th    Handel at 21% Purdue at 23.1% LINK
If this continues Handel will make the runoff as she is 6 points clear of third place.

GA: KAREN HANDEL SURGES TO VIRTUAL TIE FOR FIRST AFTER PALIN ENDORSEMENT LINK

Outstanding photo, with appreciation and permission, by Rachel Brewer  @theanswerwoman 

Update;Sasse wins by 27 Points:Palin Power;Endorsed Nebraska Candidate Sasse's 25 Point Turnaround Into Lead

Above is the final lot of polling for the Nebraska GOP senate nomination which does not include the Feb 28th poll which had Osborn 11 points ahead prior to Governor Palin's endorsement but it does include one with Osborn ahead. The remarkable turnaround for Sasse subsequent to her endorsement and her actively campaigning for him in Nebraska is set out in detail below.

What is also of significance is the early date of Palin's endorsement-which counters the left meme that "Palin only endorses late when the endorsee is sure of winning" which is of course nonsense.

NAME                  ENDORSEMENT DATE

SARAH PALIN                  MARCH 13

TED CRUZ                        APRIL     23

RICK SANTORUM          MAY          7

GARY BAUER                  MAY         8

PAT TOOMEY                  MAY          9

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Mirroring Governor Palin's previous endorsement success in Nebraska-that of assisting to propel now Senator Deb Fischer in to the senate from  a lagging campaign prior to endorsement, Nebraska 2014 candidate Ben Sasse is yet another tribute to the "power of Palin."

Below is the remarkable, and undeniable history of Sasse's moving from a negative 9 point position prior to Palin's endorsment, (which history I set out below) to, as of today, a 6 point  lead- a 15 point turnaround.

This is the next in a long line of "Palin effect" turnarounds coming fast on the heels of the almost miraculous 46 point! turnaround for Oklahoma senate candidate TW Shannon-you can read about it at this link; http://tinyurl.com/lj5hyhz

What makes the latest episode in Palin power particularly salient, is that it comes at the exact moment the "Lame Stream Media is trying desperately to, once again, take her down. Over the last week there have been stories from well known political commentators along the lines of "Palin is "diminished" a spent force, doesn't attract the crowds like she used to and etc. 

The photo below, of Palin addressing a massive crowd of 1000 in Tulsa for T W Shannon, after having attended a sold out $500 a table dinner in Alabama, shows how ludicrous that line of propaganda is. The facts speak for themselves, the leftist media speaks with forked tongues.

February 28th  TPC Polling;                              Shane Osborn                  Ben Sasse        Osborn +11

http://tinyurl.com/lgyaddo

                                                                                     35%                            24%

March 13th Governor Palin announces 

she has endorsed Sasse.

http://tinyurl.com/ljs3xyq

April 17th Palin announces she will 

campaign for Sasse

http://tinyurl.com/mlyouww

April 26th 1000 attend a Palin Rally 

for Sasse in North Platte Nebraska

with substantial local and national

 media coverage

http://tinyurl.com/mcck5yq

April 29th Ben Sasse takes a 6 point                   25%                             31%               Sasse+6

lead in the poll

http://tinyurl.com/kd2klg6

May 10th Sasse takes a 14 point lead LINK  38% to 24%

Outstanding photo, with appreciation and permission, by Rachel Brewer  @theanswerwoman 

Astonishing Power of Sarah Palin Illustrated:Endorsed Candidate T W Shannon Gains 46 Points

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Polling record: (Earliest: 1st Poll February 1)

Lankford  54% Shannon 18% Lankford +36 

(Palin endorses Shannon March 12th)

Lankford  37% Shannon 28% Lankford +  9

Shannon  42% Lankford 32% Shannon +10

Lankford  43% Shannon 33% Lankford +10

Lankford  33% Shannon 31% Lankford  +  2

Lankford  41% Shannon 34% Lankford   + 7

"Pro-Lankford Poll Showed 22% Lead" http://mccarvillereport.com/archives/22027

Shannon  39% Lankford 37% Shannon     +2 http://mccarvillereport.com/archives/22027
Lankford 41%   Shannon 38%  Lankford + 3


and the final poll before the election with neither candidate winning the 50%+1 to avoid a run-off:

*******************************************************************************************************************************

An early June internal poll from Lankford’s campaign showed him leading Shannon, 41 percent to 34 percent. That’s a slightly narrower lead than an internal poll from a month before, when Lankford led 43 percent to 33 percent.

The most recent surveys from Shannon’s supporters put him narrowly ahead of Lankford, 39 percent to 37 percent. But there’s a small shift from April, when a similar poll from the same pro-Shannon super PAC showed him ahead of Lankford, 42 percent to 32 percent.

Lankford was the beneficiary of contributions from several congressional colleagues

Rep. James Lankford headed into the final three weeks of the Oklahoma Republican Senate primary with more than double the cash on hand of his top opponent, state Speaker T.W. Shannon.

According to pre-primary reports filed last week with the Federal Election Commission, Lankford had $732,000 in cash on hand as of June 4, while Shannon had $330,000.

The two candidates’ fundraising totals in the pre-primary period, which covers April 1 through June 4, were closer. Lankford  raised $847,000 and Shannon brought in $626,000. Lankford also outspent Shannon over that two-month period, spending $1.1 million to Shannon’s $798,000.

http://atr.rollcall.com/lankford-led-shannon-oklahoma-senate-fundraising/?dcz=

*****************************************************************************
Breitbart:

SHANNON, LANKFORD NECK-AND-NECK HEADING INTO FINAL STRETCH OF OK SENATE PRIMARY"

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/06/13/T-W-Shannon-Emerges-As-Washington-Outsider-to-Watch-in-Oklahoma-GOP-Senate-Race

 Lankford entered the race when Coburn suddenly announced his retirement in January with a 37 point lead in the polls.

But Lankford's top challenger, former Oklahoma House Speaker T.W. Shannon, has made a surprisingly strong challenge, climbing from a huge deficit to run neck-and-neck with Lankford in polls from this spring.

Shannon served as the youngest Speaker of the Oklahoma House of Representatives ever from 2012 to 2014. While there, he established a strong conservative record as a fiscal hawk, supporting efforts to eliminate the state's debt by selling off unused state assets. He has continued in his Senate campaign to support classic conservative positions.

Shannon's limited government message has garnered the support of a host of national Tea Party groups--including the Senate Conservatives Fund--as well as some high profile Tea Party favorite politicians. Sarah Palin, Mike Lee, and Ted Cruz have all endorsed him.

Recent polls show Lanfkord and Shannon in a virtual tie--both poll in the mid thirties. Should neither candidate receive the 50 percent plus one required to win the June 24 primary outright, the top two candidates are expected to face off in an August runoff. A third candidate, former state Senator Randy Brogdon, is also on the ballot, but his support has dropped to single digits.

The Sooner Poll, conducted May 5 to May 8, showed Lankford leading Shannon by a 33 percent to 31 percent margin. With a sample size of 580 and a plus or minus four percent margin of error, the poll shows a virtual dead heat between the two.

On Wednesday, Sarah Palin said, "Grassroots commonsense conservatives can use this momentum [from the Dave Brat victory] to push good candidates like Chris McDaniel, T.W. Shannon, and Rob Maness to victory for America. These candidates are also being massively outspent by establishment candidates and they need our help and energy."

*******************************************
Jonathan Tobin 'Commentary' : “ She’s (Palin) yesterday’s news”...

Rebecca Schoenkopf Wonkette: “James Lankford ...I’ve got as little doubt he’ll be Oklahoma’s next senator; the Democrat will lose because she's Black”
                  *******************************

There could be no greater indication of the political power of Sarah Palin than the remarkable polling history which seemingly indicates that, from nowhere, and against tremendous odds, the election of Oklahoma's T W Shannon as the state's new senator is looking more than possible.

Shannon, described as a very conservative former speaker of the Oklahoma house, has overcome a polling deficit that would have made most candidates give up before they started. No doubt his personal reputation, his compelling story of being a Black conservative, and his wife's story of overcoming health problems have assisted his recent rise greatly, but there can be little doubt that the same factor which advised now Senator Ted Cruz to state publicly “ I Wouldn't be here if it were not for Governor Sarah Palin, was at work.

Shannon's first appearance in the polls was the Harper poll of February 1^st;

The long time political commentator Rebecca Schoenkopf, whose family has deep roots in the Oklahoma soil, surveyed the political scene in an in-depth article at the well known site “Wonkette” and came to this conclusion:"James Lankford ...I’ve got as little doubt he’ll be Oklahoma’s next senator.” Oddly, given that Shannon is Black, Schoenkopf adds that Democrat candidate Johnson will lose “because she's Black... which is “all the explanation that’s needed”
Read more at http://wonkette.com/547225/there-will-be-blood-oklahoma-democrats-will-fight-where-they-stand#4RK1XwJL2d2GToAf.99

From this seemingly impossible to win position, something happened on March 12th  to change the picture entirely; "SARAH PALIN ENDORSES T.W. SHANNON FOR OK SENATE”

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/03/12/Sarah-Palin-Endorses-T-W-Shannon-for-OK-Senate

"Tom Coburn leaves large conservative shoes to fill as he retires from the U.S. Senate. At 6’5 feet tall, T.W. Shannon is just the leader to fill them," Palin wrote. "T.W. is the underdog in his race, but that’s not a position he’s unfamiliar with."

Palin wrote that Shannon, the youngest and one of the most conservative Speakers of the House in Oklahoma history, has "had to beat the odds all of his life" to eventually become "the first Republican to ever win his district’s seat in the Oklahoma state legislature even though the naysayers said it couldn't be done. When he sought to be Speaker of the House, the naysayers said he was too young and too conservative to win. But his colleagues chose him anyway, and he became the youngest Speaker in Oklahoma history!"

She said while Shannon's opponent has the "backing of Beltway insiders," Shannon has "the passion and experience We the People need in Washington. As the former Speaker he can stand proud on his record of fighting for conservative legislation that directly benefited the lives of Oklahomans by lowering taxes, cutting government waste, and breaking the cycle of poverty by encouraging entrepreneurial self-reliance as the proven path to prosperity."

"We are suffering from a lack of conservative vision. I believe we desperately need leaders with deep convictions who will fight—and win—the battles for conservative policies," Shannon told Palin, who wrote that "We can also rest assured that T.W. will bring to D.C. the integrity and moral compass he acquired growing up attending Bethlehem Baptist Church and teaching Sunday School."

The on March 18^th an astounding turnaround in the polls commenced :http://atr.rollcall.com/outside-group-poll-shows-tightening-oklahoma-senate-primary/

“A poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies on behalf of Oklahomans for a Conservative Future, an outside group backing Shannon, found the state speaker cutting into the early GOP primary lead of Rep. James Lankford. Lankford, who is the favorite to fill the remaining two years of Coburn’s term, led with 37 percent, followed by Shannon with 28 percent and former state Sen. Randy Brogdon with 7 percent.”

Thus the polls went from the leader James Lankford with a seemingly impregnable lead

to a 27 point turnaround: 

Lankford  54% Shannon 18% Lankford +36 to:

Lankford  37% Shannon 28% Lankford + 9

Then, and prior to Governor Palin appearing at an upcoming and well publicized rally (with Senator's Cruz and Lee ) for Shannon, an (admittedly partisan group's)  poll appeared on April 23^rd; “T.W. SHANNON OPENS UP 10-POINT LEAD IN GOP OK SENATE PRIMARY

Conservative Oklahoma Senate candidate T.W. Shannon has opened up a 10-point lead after trailing Rep. James Lankford (R-OK) by 35 points just two months ago in the race to replace retiring Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK). That represents a net swing of 46 points in Shannon's favor.The poll found that Shannon leads Lankford 42% to 32%, and 63% of Oklahomans view Shannon, arguably the most conservative Speaker in the history of the nation's reddest state, favorably, as opposed to 6% that view him unfavorably. In February, 30% of Oklahomans viewed Shannon favorably while 4% did not."

Thus the polling history stood at:

Lankford 54% Shannon 18% Lankford +36

Lankford 37% Shannon 28% Lankford + 9

Lankford 32% Shannon 42% Shannon +10

Shannon, on current polling is just 8 points behind  the 50% needed to avoid a runoff and to go straight into the November elections as the almost certain next senator from Oklahoma. If he does he too could join Senator Cruz in saying “I would not be where I am today if it were not for Governor Sarah Palin”

Next Polling round of non-partisan pollsters found Shannon and Lankford both in a virtual tie well within the margin of error with the lead swapping back and forth within that MOE. Shannon's consistent 32% in non-partisan polling represents a 14 point increase from his first poll and a nett 34 point turnaround in the race.