"Hidden Primary" On Twitter Points To Not Only A Trump Win But A Revolution

I linked to an article at the inestimable "Conservative Treehouse The Last Refuge" which in my, and clearly a substantial number of others, mind is one of the "go to" sites for outstanding on the ball conservative thinking. 

A number of, unprecedented for me, things eventuated. My followers number went up by the largest number over a few days period than ever before and the views of two of
my articles (both linked by "Conservative Treehouse" ) will be around 8000 which is a lot for my site. But over and beyond this appreciated increase in traffic a fascinating to me, and upon conclusion of this post hopefully not only fascinating but encouraging to others, insight came into view.

My Twitter Tweet  linking to an article at "The Conservative Treehouse" was re-Tweeted 59 times. This of itself is not so dramatic as I have had a number of re-Tweets exceeding that amount (especially a Re-tweet from Donald Trump). What was of great interest was the Tweeters themselves.

I am not going to image the individual Tweeters profiles and comments, although they are more or less by their very nature in the public domain, as I respect their privacy. Rather it is the facts of who they are, where they are from and, most significantly I believe, how many followers they have.

Usually when I look at the bio's of the people who re-Tweet my Tweets or link to my articles, they have what I consider a substantial number of followers at least 1000 plus. And in general they are politically active with often tens of thousands of tweets of their own and their own blogs.

However, the great majority of the 59 who re-Tweeted me presented a striking and, I firmly believe, to Donald Trump, a greatly encouraging profile. Person after person had followers well below 100. In many cases follower numbers were in the 20's, and their Tweet  numbers were very low. Their personal profiles ranges from "Grandma" "Retiree" "Christian Mom" and the like across middle America from small to medium towns to small cities.

But what bound these good people together was a fierce loyalty to Donald Trump. Many had fashioned Trump signage on their profiles, and others had his photo with messages about "taking America back" and the like.

I have been on Twitter for some time now and I have never experienced so many people clearly new to politics being so enthused about a politician. It is these Mom and Pop flyover country folks energized for Trump who have confounded pundits/Establishment.

One of the many pundits memes about Trump is "his supporters, especially those who have been non-voters in the past, will not show up to vote." It seems very clear to me that the pundits are utterly disconnected with the massive earthquake that is coming their way, and to the Establishment as these average Americans, who have felt left behind by the Beltway system and the run of the mill politicians, enter the polling booths for Trump.

The revolution is here and is hidden from the media, but if they had access to the depth of feeling as illustrated in these Tweets the shock that is coming to them would not be so dramatic. 

But coming it is and it will be delivered by "Grandma in Pensacola for Trump" and millions like her.

NB; I was asked the following question in respect of this article (which is totally valid)

"Hi Mr Sheppard are not these pages of 20 or so followers Fake ? Ie set up by the same person"

7 minutes ago

The bio's are clearly of real people. Not all have Trump imagery, more of their cats/dogs grandkids etc and the words are clearly non-professional.Thanks

If I had published the Tweets (which I will not do for privacy reasons as stated) I believe the kind question would not have arisen as the sincerity and validity would be obvious. I would be confident that anyone on twitter who has received similarTweets would be satisfied in their own mind that they were genuine.
MJ

Carson Is The Biggest Danger To Trump-By Not Running

Given Dr.Carson dramatic and seemingly unstoppable decline in the polls it would seem odd to suggest that in reality Dr. Carson currently poses the biggest threat to Donald Trump's so far unstoppable poll rise to the nomination.

The graph at the 'Real Clear Politics" poll of polls aggregator tells a story even the most partisan would find impossible to deny. 

On November 4th Carson became the only candidate to pass Trump (albeit by less than 1 point and for three days) since his rise to first place on July 20th. It is a sorry story for Carson since then.

On January 2nd 2016 Dr.Carson is on 8.8% 16 points behind Trump

As things stand there is clearly no further direct threat to Trump from Carson in the polls or as an opposition candidate. The danger is that should Carson drop out in the near future it could present a very difficult hazard for Trump. If he did so before Iowa and frankly with Dr.Carson anything is possible, it would, almost certainly, give Cruz the win in this first up state.

There is no need to dwell on why Dr.Carson's campaign imploded. The basic facts of his life story coming unstuck, and his inability to deal with foreign policy questions in the debates are well known, and the graph above tells the tale. Going forwards this is the real area of concern for the Trump campaign and a possible bonanza for the Cruz team;

"Chaos in Carson campaign as top aides resign

Campaign manager Barry Bennett and communications director Doug Watts both resigned, as Carson's operation struggles to regain momentum."

This chaos was brought into being in no small part by Carson's going back and forth on whether or not he would reorganize his team "I won't shuffle/I will shuffle"

If Carson's campaign implodes before Iowa the risk to Trump is manifest;

Carson's decline is even more dramatic in Iowa than nationwide. He lead the field at 29.2% to Trump's 20.6% and Cruz 9.6 as recently as October 26th. Since then Trump has risen 7 points and Cruz a massive 21 points. Clearly the bulk of Carson's support has gone to Cruz who has made a major appeal to Iowa's strong Evangelical voters. 

If Carson left the field (and there is still a month to go so again, anything is possible) even if he didn't endorse Cruz it would seem logical that the bulk of his residual support would go to Cruz. If Cruz picked up 6 points from Carson that would put him about 37% and the most likely winner of the Iowa caucuses.

The resulting publicity (not to say the media hate Trump frenzy which would continue like an avalanche for the next week) and the possible endorsement of Cruz by Huckabee who said he would leave the fray if he didn't do well in Iowa (and possibly Santorum as well) could have a significant impact on next up New Hampshire. Actually even if Huckabee and Santorum didn't endorse Cruz it would seem logical that some of their support ( as small as it is ) would go to him.

On the face of it, even with a tailwind from Iowa Cruz would seem unlikely to win New Hampshire. But with Carson's voters and anything gleaned from Huckabee/Santorum, Cruz would be a solid second in a state where such a position would be called a "win" by the media and no doubt by his team as well.

Which takes us to Nevada and the danger to Trump from a Carson collapse is obvious;

After that South Carolina; And then a further run of the Southern states including Texas where Cruz is well placed. 

All Trump supporters should wish Dr.Carson well, the very best for the new year, and that he sorts out his team problems and continues in the race, at at least his current level of support, right up to Florida. Trump supporters can keep their collective fingers crossed as each state goes by and if Carson stays in the Iowa running then a collective sigh of relief will be in order.

But.....it's Dr. Carson so tenterhooks for the next month.

Forget "A Black/Woman/Hispanic"As Trump's VP; Must Be Palin On Merit

A few days ago I examined some of the current thinking about Donald Trump's campaign. One aspect of this was the possibility (and why) of Mike Huckabee being chosen as Trump's VP;

["Mike Huckabee would be the best choice for Trump's VP"
"Huckabee is angling to be Trump's VP and would be the best choice as he will not only shore up Trump's conservative bona fides but ensure that evangelicals don't sit out the election as they did in 2012. This team might deliver Iowa's 6 Electoral College votes which could be vital in a close election. It also adds the experience of a governor to Trump's campaign team."

I have to admit the thought of Huckabee as Trump's VP never occurred to me, being caught up in the "It has to be a woman and if a Hispanic woman even better" concept. But with Susana Martinez in strife that may have come to a conclusion. Certainly Sandoval, Ayotte, Carson and Cruz of course remain front and center in media/Blog thinking, but Huckabee...hmmmm.]


Since then Senator Cruz has gone a seeming televangelist bent

"Sen.Ted Cruz Tells Volunteers:We Can Win ‘If We Awaken And Energize The Body Of Christ”

Look, this is a political campaign for president, Cruz isn't running for Pope. I appreciate that he his pulling out all the stops in Iowa and is making a direct appeal to Evangelicals but frankly, and I am far from alone in thinking this is a bit too much. And anyway, for any Cruz enraged supporters by what I think, the VP slot is off the table as reported in his own words "Cruz stated in an interview a couple weeks ago that he will not be a veep candidate on a Trump ticket."

I would rather see a VP choice chosen purely on the merits of the person. If part of the Trump appeal is a break with the old politics then surely too, as part of that, the old VP choice paradigm has to go.

It shouldn't be of any import for the ticket that the running mate is from a state with x number of Electoral College votes or is from the north or the south. It shouldn't matter if the slot is taken by someone who is not a Hispanic or a Black or a man or a women. What should matter above all with the new politics is that the person is steadfast, honest, a team player and, yes, has Christian principles (but is not a televangelist or a panderer.)

Speaking of the latter Marco Rubio doesn't even enter the equation as far as a VP choice is concerned. So far Rubio will; amend the constitution via article five, a Convention of States, invoke Nato's Article 5, pack the Supreme Court with conservatives to overturn same-sex marriage (Overturning Roe vs Wade is surely next.) It's all too much.

And;"Donald Trump says he still wouldn't consider the Florida senator as the Republican vice presidential nominee.

"Most likely not," Trump, the Republican presidential front-runner, said Monday when asked on "The Herd," a sports radio show hosted by Colin Cowherd, whether he'd consider Rubio as his running mate.

"I don't think, frankly, Rubio is going to make it. I think, to me, he's a lightweight," Trump said."

No, the ticket doesn't need Ayotte or Haley, just because they are a woman, it doesn't need Kasich to win Ohio, or Martinez/Cruz/Rubio because they are Hispanic or Carson because he's a Black Christian. The new honesty needs someone with experience in governing, whose personal life is impeccably honest, who has the admiration of millions and can give the ticket added dynamism to Trump's. The only person who has those qualities/qualifications in respect of the job is Sarah Palin.

The fact that Palin is a woman is important but secondary. The fact that she is an experienced honest deeply Christian (without preaching from a pulpit on the campaign trail) person is. The fact that she could take over in the case of a tragedy and bring the country together because of her experience and ability to reach across the aisle is also vital.

I admit I was taken up with the old political game of "balance" but that is just wrong if we are to make a real break with the past. I admit too I was concerned that if Palin was chosen the media and the haters would ridicule the choice-but, you know what, to hell with them all. In the end the VP choice has no effect on the ticket winning so values above all should be the decider in the choice of running mate.

I appreciate that when asked if he would consider Palin as his running mate Trump replied "The Donald sparked rumors last month by saying he would ‘love’ to have Palin as a running mate. "She really is somebody who knows what's happening and she's a special person.’ I don't think she would put herself through that again." But that sentence doesn't contain the word "no." As For Palin herself;

"Asked about potentially joining Trump even sooner as his running mate, Palin told “Extra” there were “so many good potential female running mates out there and male running mates,” but left the door open to the possibility."

All that matters is Trump wins and if he wins with Palin by his side then all the media and the haters will be tossed in the dustbin of history.

The GOP's 2016 team should run on its merits and the team with the greatest merit is Trump and Palin.

UPDATE;Primary Win Confirms Premise;Trump And Only "Jobs" Trump Can Win Michigan And With It The Presidency

UPDATE;
Donald Trump won the Michigan primary by over 153,000 votes and a huge 11.7 points

He beat off a challenge from John Kasich who was, according to some polls, leading him in the state;Both the Democratic and Republican Michigan primaries were open and Independents and Democrats could vote in the GOP Primary.

"Kasich, the two-term governor of Ohio who viewed Michigan as home turf, vied with Ted Cruz for a distant second to Trump but slipped to a disappointing third-place finish. Kasich had spent more time in Michigan than any other candidate—so much so that he joked at various events in recent days that he might have to start paying taxes in the state."

The Democratic turnout was  1,193,169

The Republican Turnout was 1,332,742 up 30% from the 2012 primary.

Thus the GOP saw 139,573 more voters than in the Democratic primary. The fact that the exit polls overwhelmingly advised that voters were looking for someone outside the traditional establishment;

"What are your feelings about the federal government?
Michigan:

• Angry: 32 percent.
• Dissatisfied: 55 percent.
• Satisfied: 8 percent.
• Enthusiastic: 2 percent"

This indicates strongly that Trump not only lifted the GOP turnout but attracted a solid tranche of Democrat's and Independents.

"Trump won a plurality of the 31 percent of self-described independents in Michigan’s GOP primary
Perhaps the most notable statistic of the night came from Macomb County, ground zero for the “Reagan Democrats” of yore. In the 1980s, these white, working-class voters defected from a Democratic party they felt had abandoned their economic interests with progressive stances on issues such as affirmative action and immigration. Macomb County’s politics have fluctuated in years since, but it remains a bellwether for Michigan and a symbol of the state’s blue-collar electorate. Trump blew away the competition there, taking 48 percent in a four-way contest"

The premise of the original article below, that Trump, by attracting a higher GOP turnout and exactly the independents and "blue collar Democrats" in hard hit Michigan, can put the state and its 16 electoral votes in play (see maps below) has been solidly reinforced by the actual voting.

Trump leads Hillary head to head in Florida and if that was the outcome in the general election Michigan and Ohio, plus the "Romney states" would ensure Trump's election.

Trump is the only logical candidate choice as he is the only one who could carry those three crucial states and give the GOP the win
*********************************************************
Original article

Firstly some media coverage of Donald Trump's most recent public meeting in Michigan;

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump greets guests at a campaign rally on December 21, 2015 in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

'Detroit News'

"Donald Trump vowed Monday (12/22) to pressure Ford Motor Co. to reverse its $2.5 billion expansion of manufacturing operations in Mexico if he’s elected president.

The Republican presidential front-runner continued his months-long campaign trail criticism of the Dearborn automaker during a speech Monday night before a raucous crowd of 8,100 supporters who packed a suburban Grand Rapids basketball arena."A consistent crowd draw

Outside of the arena, long lines snaked through the parking lot of the events center, resembling the huge crowds then-Sen. Barack Obama attracted in 2008 during his history-making campaign for the White House. Dozens donned the “Make America Great Again” hats the Trump campaign has used to market the billionaire’s unorthodox candidacy.

WOMEN DEFY MEDIA NARRATIVE, LOVE TRUMP AT PACKED MICHIGAN RALLY

Thousands of women — the very people the mainstream media says shouldn’t like Donald Trump — turned out to see the Republican frontrunner at a packed Michigan rally in Grand Rapids Monday night.

Multiple sources tell The American Mirror over 30,000 tickets were distributed for a venue that held less than 10,000 people.

We were on hand and talked to several women — including one sporting a “Hillary for Prison” t-shirt — about why they support Trump.

Faces in the crowd: See who was at Donald Trump's rally in Michigan (more at LINK)

A Trump  Conservative/Populist "Reagan Democrat" Candidacy Could Win In The Electoral College

Here is an analysis of the Electoral College victory possibilities for Donald Trump as the Republican nominee.

With a truly conservative/populist candidate such as Trump, there appears the ability to add to core base of Electoral College support which the Romney election of 2012 represents (Map 2). 

Should the current economic, military (possible terrorist) and political situation continue as it is now President Obama, as did President Carter in 1980, will own the prevailing climate in November 2016 as will "Obama's third term" Clinton.The Republican base will be determined to vote in strength, whilst all those areas of support that Obama put together in 2008 with such enthusiasm-youth, anti-war proponents, Blacks, may not be so enthused next time.

Thus, as map 3 shows, if Michigan which has traditionally been Democratic is added to the 2012 base, plus marginal Florida and Ohio, then Trump has every chance to win. The GOP establishment has no credible argument for a middle of the road candidate as there are clear indications that the base would sit on their hands come November 2016, and in that case, there is a very strong possibility of significant down ticket losses.


Thus the GOP has everything to gain with a Trump candidacy, especially with a Republican congress, as he would ensure that genuinely conservative "Reagan Democrat” policies would be implemented without a veto and the country would be back on its traditional center-right path.

Trump's trump card is that alone amongst the other GOP candidates he has significant appeal to "blue collar Democrats" and "Perot voters" as well as bringing to the polls the Evangelicals who stayed home in 2012. His message of "jobs for Americans" has potential game changing ramifications in the Electoral college. (Map 3)

This "rust belt" appeal in Ohio (and Pennsylvania) is potentially so dramatic that Trump could even lose Florida and still win-an unprecedented situation.

Using our best current guide, the state by state polling, Trump is well placed. If this map #1 holds and Trump wins just Ohio and Michigan that would give him 278 Electoral College votes 9 more than required. As per map#3 he could even lose Colorado and the 269/269 tie would be decided, in his favor, by the Republican House.
                     
Map #1

Map#2                                   ROMNEY 2012

                                                           

          Map#3            TRUMP 2016

      

Are relatively large swing possible in Michigan? Recent gubernatorial elections show they most certainly are; 

Michigan1 2006 Governor  Dem 56.3% GOP 42.3%

Michigan2 2010 Governor  Dem 39.9% GOP 58.1%

And does recent presidential elections give any hope for Trump in 2016? Here are Michigan's last four presidential election results.

G.W. Bush finished only 2.2 points behind in 2004. Given the Dem's vote decline from 2008 to 2012 and the massive economic dislocation in the state Trump clearly has the opportunity of winning if he is the nominee. A lot will be riding on Trump's message of "Jobs" that reform can win the Black vote is strikingly apparent from the history of Detroit.

Fifty straight years of Black Mayors in Detroit was overturned when a White Democratic candidate won against a Black Democrat on the issue of an end to the status quo. This is Trump's message and something Hillary can't answer with any credibility whatsoever ("Obama's third term.") If Trump (and no other Republican can do it with authority) hits that message hard he can win Michigan and, almost certainly, the presidency.

Nostradamus Predicts GOP Establishment Stops Trump At Convention.Delegate Revolt Chooses Palin

With Donald trump so far ahead in the polls and seemingly unstoppable on his way to the Republican nomination it may see odd to suggest that Sarah Palin, who is not running, will be the nominee. But Nostradamus has never been known to be wrong, so we have to contemplate what might happen this election year to see his prophesy fulfilled.

It might be, and heaven forbid such a thing came to pass, that the "Kennedy solution" talking point may happen. Let's dismiss such a dismal thought and consider a more likely scenario. It may be that Trump arrives at the convention with a majority of delegates but not enough to win. At that point the Establishment, by hook or by crook (probably the latter) uses their rule book power to somehow dismiss Trump's delegates or some other nefarious mechanism.

A "brokered" convention, which the Establishment would try and use to get Jeb Bush (or Rubio or some other of their choice) the nomination may, at that point, backfire and the delegates will revolt and choose Palin, who has no major enemies, as the nominee.

One way or the other at the convention Palin, with the support of Trump and Cruz at least, will be chosen-according to the incredibly accurate prophet as is set out below or, for the first time in history, the great Nostradamus will be wrong-possible, but unlikely.

Also-don't miss what William Shakespeare also predicted about
Palin 2016 at this link;
*********************************************
By guest Editor A. Eritas

The Seer Nostradamus, credited with amazing predictive abilities over the centuries apparently looked to our time and seeing a confluence of forces made a prophesy which can only point to the forthcoming election of Sarah Palin as the first female president in 2016. In the light of this any Democrat candidate is helpless in the face of an overarching destiny which no one, certainly no man can overcome. It would appear that the only possible chance of retaining The White House the Democratic Party have would be to nominate Hillary Clinton.

As a fore-note to the prophesy of Nostradamus it is of value to take notice of the commentary of Sri Mataji Nirmali Devi on the forthcoming rise of positive feminine power.

"And I have to specially make a very important request to the women that in these Modern Times they are the ones who are going to save the world, not the men. They have done their job before. Now it is for you to save with your understanding, with your compassion, with your sacrifices, with your wisdom, and innate love not only your children, your husband, your family, but the whole world. It is a very great opportunity for all of you to do your bit. . . . The whole Cosmos, just in complete respectful attendance, is waiting for their arrival."

"Nostradamus also prophesied what will probably become one of the most important third millennium issue for Humankind: The rise and empowerment of women who will heal the world with Love, Compassion, Cooperation and Harmony. The debilitating patriarchal world of aggression, destruction, rape and pillage will have to step aside and let them nurse humanity back to sanity. Women will rise in strength and power for they have been abused for just too long—just like Mother Earth."

If we examine the specific female related prophesy of Nostradamus as set out by Manuela Dunn Mascetti and Peter Lorie in their book "Nostradamus: Prophecies for Women" (Labyrinth Publishing [UK] 1995) we can see they have interpreted Nostradamus prophecies that predict the decline of patriarchy. However, they explain certain prophecies in the light of existing knowledge and this has to be put in proper perspective.
"New law to occupy the new land
Towards Syria, Judeau and Palestine:
The great barbarian empire of men decay,
Before the moon completes its cycle."
Century 3:97

Which they interpret as;

"A new law will emerge in the new world of America,
At a time when Syria, Judeau and Palestine are significant:
The great barbarian empire of patriarchy that men have created will decay
During the time that the feminine spirit is completing its cycle." This completion is specifically taking place now.

Adi Shakti comments on this analysis "They have correctly interpreted this verse, adding that "Throughout his verses Nostradamus frequently refers to "the new land" to mean America." This is an established interpretation, and in this case the "new law" which will arise there is related, in the last two lines, to two factors—the existence of a "barbarian" male empire, which is in decay, which is in turn is related to the Moon and its cycles—a common metaphorical association with woman. Put simply, the great virgin territories of the New World will be the source of a rising "lunar" consciousness as a time when the Judeo-Christian is at its peak."

The great empire of patriarchy that men have created will decay during the time that the feminine spirit is completing its cycle Women are destined for far greater glory in this millennium as they are the very source of feminine spiritual power, who will raise all humankind to a new level of consciousness".

Now given the irresistible power of the transforming, coming feminine power for healing and good, Mascetti and Lorie present the key to the specific relation of Palin to Nostradamus "the rising femine power in economic, social judicial, religious and political terms". Shakti cautions that this assumption of the former male role in society will fail 'without self realization, (which) will only make them succumb to the aggressiveness necessary for success".

Given the terrible state of society on all levels, political, economic, moral, spiritual it is beyond questioning that there is the need for a transforming, transcending element capable of healing all these intractable difficulties. Patriarchy, the Dionysian element as described by Camille Paglia, has taken us so far and apparently is incapable of taking the world to the next level. There is only one other force capable of this and that is the feminizing element.

For this to be effective it needs to be in a position of political authority, mere persuasion, no matter how sanctified,  is not enough. Thus America stands in desperate need of a female leader. At this point in time, this crucial point in time, there is only one on the horizon, and that is Sarah Palin.

All the prerequisites, the strong female nature, the high degree of self-realization, the transforming capabilities based on inherent love of mankind, the deep spirituality, are forces strong in Palin who is the one seemingly prophesied, so long ago to "bring the new law"  by a far seeing seer.