Trump Moves Into AGGREGATE Lead in Florida In New RCP Analysis

Post Comey;In the new Real Clear Politics aggregate of Florida Polling Trump has moved into the lead for the first time since September 26th

This reflects the latest polls from Remington Trump +4 and NYTImes/Sienna Trump +4 and earlier

Bloomberg;

"Trump Has 2-Point Edge in Bloomberg Politics Poll of Florida"

And;

Tampa Bay Times Dixie Strategies (10/25-10/26):Florida Trump 46 (+4) Clinton 42 Johnson 2 Stein 1 http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/ ...

And FWIW this new "Alliance Poll" (not included in the aggregate) which for all it's possible validity reinforces the trend

This clearly reflects the monumental effort Trump has put in Florida. It also reflects the unusual early voting figures;

Early voting lead holding in Florida GOP 1510018Dem 1500124 with substantial Indie's early voting which must favor Tump Very positive sign LINK TO OFFICIAL RESULTS

Fighting Major ‏

3 hours ago

@MJosephSheppard Wow. Assuming 10% win among Ind's and that is incredible early on compared to past.

In the Electoral College/Battleground states a movement to Trump;

RCP aggregate poll movements to Trump in October

Florida +4 Ohio +4  Nevada +4 
Colorado +4.0 Pennsylvania +4 

Trump very much has an Electoral College path to the presidency. First the obvious qualification. For Trump to get the "one or two states he needs to win" he has to have won Florida/North Carolina/Ohio. Lose any of them, especially Florida and Republicans can turn off their televisions around  10 p.m. on November 8th. 

As well as Florida Trump is in the aggregate lead in Ohio +1.1 At this point he is behind in the aggregate in North Carolina but he is still very much competitive (within the margin of error MOE) at -3 (latest poll Trump +2)


In my opinion, Virginia -7.2 is gone but the Trump team announced a multi-million dollar TV spend and he held a rally there which they obviously wouldn't do if they didn't think there was a reasonable chance. 

Lets look at the best case Electoral College scenario, at this point, for Trump;

Trump needs 269 Electoral College votes, not 270 as a tie is as good as a win. Presuming he carries FLA/NC/OH and the "Kerry states" of 2012, plus Iowa (currently Trump +1.4) and Maine's Congressional District 2 where he leads by 1.5 he is 9 votes short.

Winning Nevada would get him to 266, still 3 votes short or winning Colorado would get him to 269 and the presidency. Alternatively Nevada plus New Hampshire would be 270.

Bearing in mind the aggregate of some of these states polls reflect some of Trump's worst weeks or are well out of date, he is within or well outside of the margin of error (MOE) but it would be foolishly optimistic to say they are certainties.

Nevada -1.5 Latest poll Trump +4
Colorado -4Trump hasn't led in any poll since 9/23 Latest poll Trump -1 (from -11 !)
New Hampshire -5.2 But he has not led in any poll of the state him.The latest poll from Emerson puts him at only-3 so the state bears watching especially as Johnson and Stein are collapsing there

Some consider Pennsylvania 5.6) but only -2 in today's Remington poll Trump's best result since September
Michigan 6.2 or Wisconsin -5.7) within reach but there are no polling indicators which would support Wisconsin but Pennsylvania is now in margin of error territory. A shock win in either (or Virginia) would elect Trump.

Again at this point it is down to Nevada/Colorado/New Hampshire with Nevada/New Hampshire seeming the best chance. If he did win Colorado it would be unique that winning 1 Electoral Vote from Maine's CD2 would give him the presidency.

What would not be unique would Gary Johnson and Stein, currently at 12.7% in the latest New Hampshire aggregates and  6.3% in Nevada, costing the Dem's the presidency, it would be a repeat of Nader's spoiler role in 2000. Clinton is up only +5 in New Mexico, down from Obama's +10 win in 2012 reflecting Johnson's influence there.

Five "Post-Comey" Polls Out And Are Sensational For Trump

Tracking Poll Summary;Trump/Clinton Post Comey; 

                                    USC/LATimes Clinton-4.0  (Down 1.5)
                                    IBD                   Clinton+1.0 (Down 3)
                                     ABC                 Clinton+1.0 (Down 3)
                                     PPD                 Clinton -2.0 (Down 1)
                                 UPI/C                         TIED  (Down 1.5)
The USC/LATimes tracking poll The ABC/Washington Post and IBD trackers are the first poll post-Comey shock announcement that the FBI is having another look at the Clinton email scandal after a reported large number of Hillary related ones were found on Anthony Weiner's computer. 

The USC/LATimes poll ending 10/30 has Trump 45.6 % and Clinton  43.2 % Trump +3.4 This is his highest  since polling October 3rd

What makes this poll so striking is USC's methodology. It is a seven day "average of all the prior week's responses"
thus this poll only includes 2 day's post-Comey polling. Thus for there to be such a large increase based on 2/7 of respondents is significant. 

What the next few days will bring as more post-Comey respondents are included will be interesting to say the least. The ABC/Washington Post  tracker, saw Hillary down to +1 from +2 the previous day, only polled to 1 day after post Comey so indications are yet to come fully for them.

But;
"About a third of likely voters say they’re less likely to support Clinton given FBI Director James Comey’s disclosure Friday that the bureau is investigating more emails related to its probe of Clinton’s use of a private email server while secretary of state. Given other considerations, 63 percent say it makes no difference."

The new IBD tracking poll post Comey
saw Clinton drop 2 points from 10/28 to 10/29
from +4 to +2.  IBD is a 5 day inclusive tracker so it only includes 1 day post Comey;

"Just Like That, Clinton Lead Shrinks By 2 As Email Scandal Blows Up – IBD/TIPP Poll"

In the Real Clear Politics polls the five most recent polls listed from 10/26 to 10/29 Clinton's aggregate lead is down to +1.8 points. In the tracking polls aggregate Trump and Clinton are tied as they are in Florida.
Rasmussen has gone the other way with Clinton gaining
three points ! to lead 45% to 42% but this is just noise and Rasmussen will move to Trump shortly.

 

Polling to 10/30 Clinton Down To +1 In Aggregate Four Latest Polls

In the Real Clear Politics polls the four most recent polls listed from 10/26 to 10 29 Clinton's aggregate lead is down to +1

The ABC/Washington Post miracle poll continues apace from Clinton +12, which the media slobbered, over to Clinton +1 in five days.

None of these polls are fully "post Comey" except IBD which has one day of its five composite analysis. IBD has seen Clinton drop 1 point from yesterday's polling so there may be a first indication of some reaction which will be more fully seen over the next few polling days.

In the Tracking polls the best available aggregate is a Trump Clinton an aggregate tie (Clinton + 0.7 on 10/26) because as usual UPI/C lags behind the other tracking polls in reporting and Rasmussen doesn't report on weekends.

What was available was effectively status quo. USC an 0.5 shift to Clinton and PPD an 0.1 shift to Trump. A clearer picture should emerge Monday as "post Comey" data is included but even then it will be early as for example USC/LATimes includes a whole previous weeks data so by Monday it will only include 2 days post Comey.

In sum it is clear that the polling momentum in both the one off MSM polls and the trackng polls is to Trump nationwide.

In Florida the RCP aggregate has moved the state from a
Clinton lead since September 27th to an exact tie on October 30th

Tracking Polling 10/28; USC/LATimes Trump Highest Since 10/6 Up 2.4 Points Over Clinton at 46.2%

In a striking move upwards for Donald Trump in the latest USC/LATimes tracking Poll Trump leads Clinton 46.2% to 43.8%.

This is a rise of 2.41 points since 10/23 when Trump commenced his upwards run which has coincided with a tightening of the MSM polls from their ridiculous "Clinton +14 levels over the previous weeks. Clinton has dropped by 1.3 points over that period as well

Trump's rise has been driven by a sharp increase in support from middle income middle America which may have been influenced to a degree by the large "ObamaCare premium rises;

And while Trump is steady, a slight uptick in fact with Females, his support among males has rocketed. The Gingrich/Kelly debate may have had some influence on this

The previous polls are all over the place but across the board the MSM polls are tightening as they herd together so no one stands out as looking particularly stupid after the election.

The Times Picayune and ABC trackers went from Clinton  +12 to +3 and +4 respectively in three days.

In summary; USC/LATimes Clinton down a point to Trump leading by 2.4

In the other tracking polls the move to Trump is clear; Rasmussen Clinton down 1 point to a tie

PPD Clinton down 1.5 to minus 1.1  UPI/C down two points to plus 1.8 from plus 5.5 a week ago

Only IBD shows movement in the other direction with Clinton up a point to +4 !! but that is what aggregation is for of course. Her lead in the aggregate has shrunk to only Plus 0.4 Here's why IBD is going the opposite of the other tracking polls

IBD/TIPP poll raw response proportions came from 33.2% Dem; 33.1% Rep; 31.1% Ind (n=973). For some reason, they threw out 27 responses and "weighted" the rest to 37.1% Dem; 30.3% Rep; 32.6% Ind (n=946).

IBD is showing DT with only +10 among men while HC is +16 among women. LAT is +17.7 & +12.1 respectively. With what happened yesterday IBD is smoking crack.And IBD shows DT +12 with whites while LAT shows Trump surging at +22.4.

"Voila! Clinton leads 44-41 with a 3.3% MoE, as IBD/TIPP demands you acknowledge their polling accuracy 

In the non-tracking polls since 10/25 Clinton's lead is down to 3.7 points aggregate


Trump's USC/LATimes rise coincided with his big jump in Florida

Trump Has 2-Point Edge in Bloomberg Politics Poll of Florida

Polling Update 10/27;Clinton Solidifying 5 Tracking Polls Lead at +1 MSM Polls +6

In the tracking polls a consolidation of Clinton's minor lead with a slight shift to her over the last two days;

The aggregate total on the right hand column shows Clinton at +0.7 aggregate across the five tracking polls up from + 0.1 a week ago. It seems, at this point nothing can shift Clinton's lead as even with Gary Johnson collapsing his support is tending slightly to Clinton.

This mirrors the MSM "one off" polls which, having  for the most part gotten rid of the silly "Clinton +14" polls of last week have a slight trend to her with the RCP aggregate at +6.2 (+5.8 including the tracking polls)

In the Electoral College/Battleground states a movement to Trump but not enough to give him the 269 votes he needs at this point.

RCP aggregate poll movements to Trump from 10/14 to 10/24

Florida +2 Ohio +0.5 Nevada +1.2 Colorado +1.0
Pennsylvania +1.2 (-6.2 to -5.5)


First the obvious qualification. For Trump to get the "one or two states to win he has to have won Florida/North Carolina/Ohio. Lose any of them, especially Florida and Republicans can turn off their televisions around 
10 p.m. on November 8th. 

At this point he is behind in the aggregate in two of the three but he is still very much competitive (within the margin of error MOE) in all Florida -3.6 (10/26 -1.6)
North Carolina -2.5 (10/26 -2)
Now back in the aggregate lead in Ohio +0.7 (10/26 +1.1)

In my opinion, Virginia -7.2 is gone but the Trump team announced a multi-million dollar TV spend and he held a rally there which they obviously wouldn't do if they didn't think there was a reasonable chance. 
Lets look at the best case Electoral College scenario, at this point, for Trump;

Trump needs 269 Electoral College votes, not 270 as a tie is as good as a win. Presuming he carries FLA/NC/OH and the "Kerry states" of 2012, plus Iowa (currently Trump +3.7) and Maine's Congressional District 2 where he leads by +7.5 (10/27 +4.2) he is 9 votes short.

Winning Nevada would get him to 266, still 3 votes short. Winning Colorado would get him to 269 and the presidency. Alternatively Nevada plus New Hampshire would be 270. How is he polling in those three states? Nevada promising but the other two, not so good but Pennsylvania a surprise mover.

Bearing in mind the aggregate of some of these states polls reflect some of Trump's worst weeks or are well out of date. He is within or well outside of the margin of error (MOE) but it would be foolishly optimistic to say they are certainties.

Nevada -4.2 (10/27 -2.0) but he hasn't led in any poll since 9/20
Colorado -7.2 (10/27 -6.2) Trump hasn't led in any poll since 9/23
New Hampshire -4.7 (-6.5)  But he has not led in any poll of the state and as of 27/10 aggregate has moved against him.The latest poll from Monmouth puts him at only-4, a five point shift in their poll in four weeks, so the state bears watching especially as Johnson has 9% and may collapse.

Some consider Pennsylvania -6.2 (10/27 -5.0) Michigan -6.0 (10/27-6.0) or Wisconsin -7.0 (10/27 -6.7) within reach but there are no polling indicators which would support Wisconsin but Pennsylvania is now in margin of error territory. A shock win in either (or Virginia) would elect Trump.

Again at this point it is down to Nevada/Colorado/New Hampshire with Nevada/New Hampshire seeming the best chance. If he did win Colorado it would be unique that winning 1 Electoral Vote from Maine's CD2 would give him the presidency.

What would not be unique would Gary Johnson and Stein, currently at 12.7% in the latest New Hampshire aggregates and  6.3% in Nevada, costing the Dem's the presidency, it would be a repeat of Nader's spoiler role in 2000. Clinton is up only +5 in New Mexico, down from Obama's +10 win in 2012 reflecting Johnson's influence there.