Thursday, October 27, 2016

Polling Update 10/27;Clinton Solidifying 5 Tracking Polls Lead at +1 MSM Polls +6

In the tracking polls a consolidation of Clinton's minor lead with a slight shift to her over the last two days;

The aggregate total on the right hand column shows Clinton at +0.7 aggregate across the five tracking polls up from + 0.1 a week ago. It seems, at this point nothing can shift Clinton's lead as even with Gary Johnson collapsing his support is tending slightly to Clinton.

This mirrors the MSM "one off" polls which, having  for the most part gotten rid of the silly "Clinton +14" polls of last week have a slight trend to her with the RCP aggregate at +6.2 (+5.8 including the tracking polls)

In the Electoral College/Battleground states a movement to Trump but not enough to give him the 269 votes he needs at this point.

RCP aggregate poll movements to Trump from 10/14 to 10/24

Florida +2 Ohio +0.5 Nevada +1.2 Colorado +1.0
Pennsylvania +1.2 (-6.2 to -5.5)

First the obvious qualification. For Trump to get the "one or two states to win he has to have won Florida/North Carolina/Ohio. Lose any of them, especially Florida and Republicans can turn off their televisions around 
10 p.m. on November 8th. 

At this point he is behind in the aggregate in two of the three but he is still very much competitive (within the margin of error MOE) in all Florida -3.6 (10/26 -1.6)
North Carolina -2.5 (10/26 -2)
Now back in the aggregate lead in Ohio +0.7 (10/26 +1.1)

In my opinion, Virginia -7.2 is gone but the Trump team announced a multi-million dollar TV spend and he held a rally there which they obviously wouldn't do if they didn't think there was a reasonable chance. 
Lets look at the best case Electoral College scenario, at this point, for Trump;

Trump needs 269 Electoral College votes, not 270 as a tie is as good as a win. Presuming he carries FLA/NC/OH and the "Kerry states" of 2012, plus Iowa (currently Trump +3.7) and Maine's Congressional District 2 where he leads by +7.5 (10/27 +4.2) he is 9 votes short.

Winning Nevada would get him to 266, still 3 votes short. Winning Colorado would get him to 269 and the presidency. Alternatively Nevada plus New Hampshire would be 270. How is he polling in those three states? Nevada promising but the other two, not so good but Pennsylvania a surprise mover.

Bearing in mind the aggregate of some of these states polls reflect some of Trump's worst weeks or are well out of date. He is within or well outside of the margin of error (MOE) but it would be foolishly optimistic to say they are certainties.

Nevada -4.2 (10/27 -2.0) but he hasn't led in any poll since 9/20
Colorado -7.2 (10/27 -6.2) Trump hasn't led in any poll since 9/23
New Hampshire -4.7 (-6.5)  But he has not led in any poll of the state and as of 27/10 aggregate has moved against him.The latest poll from Monmouth puts him at only-4, a five point shift in their poll in four weeks, so the state bears watching especially as Johnson has 9% and may collapse.

Some consider Pennsylvania -6.2 (10/27 -5.0) Michigan -6.0 (10/27-6.0) or Wisconsin -7.0 (10/27 -6.7) within reach but there are no polling indicators which would support Wisconsin but Pennsylvania is now in margin of error territory. A shock win in either (or Virginia) would elect Trump.

Again at this point it is down to Nevada/Colorado/New Hampshire with Nevada/New Hampshire seeming the best chance. If he did win Colorado it would be unique that winning 1 Electoral Vote from Maine's CD2 would give him the presidency.

What would not be unique would Gary Johnson and Stein, currently at 12.7% in the latest New Hampshire aggregates and  6.3% in Nevada, costing the Dem's the presidency, it would be a repeat of Nader's spoiler role in 2000. Clinton is up only +5 in New Mexico, down from Obama's +10 win in 2012 reflecting Johnson's influence there.