Sunday, October 30, 2016

Polling to 10/30 Clinton Down To +1 In Aggregate Four Latest Polls

In the Real Clear Politics polls the four most recent polls listed from 10/26 to 10 29 Clinton's aggregate lead is down to +1

The ABC/Washington Post miracle poll continues apace from Clinton +12, which the media slobbered, over to Clinton +1 in five days.

None of these polls are fully "post Comey" except IBD which has one day of its five composite analysis. IBD has seen Clinton drop 1 point from yesterday's polling so there may be a first indication of some reaction which will be more fully seen over the next few polling days.

In the Tracking polls the best available aggregate is a Trump Clinton an aggregate tie (Clinton + 0.7 on 10/26) because as usual UPI/C lags behind the other tracking polls in reporting and Rasmussen doesn't report on weekends.

What was available was effectively status quo. USC an 0.5 shift to Clinton and PPD an 0.1 shift to Trump. A clearer picture should emerge Monday as "post Comey" data is included but even then it will be early as for example USC/LATimes includes a whole previous weeks data so by Monday it will only include 2 days post Comey.

In sum it is clear that the polling momentum in both the one off MSM polls and the trackng polls is to Trump nationwide.

In Florida the RCP aggregate has moved the state from a
Clinton lead since September 27th to an exact tie on October 30th