Monday, October 31, 2016

Five "Post-Comey" Polls Out And Are Sensational For Trump

Tracking Poll Summary;Trump/Clinton Post Comey; 

                                    USC/LATimes Clinton-4.0  (Down 1.5)
                                    IBD                   Clinton+1.0 (Down 3)
                                     ABC                 Clinton+1.0 (Down 3)
                                     PPD                 Clinton -2.0 (Down 1)
                                 UPI/C                         TIED  (Down 1.5)
The USC/LATimes tracking poll The ABC/Washington Post and IBD trackers are the first poll post-Comey shock announcement that the FBI is having another look at the Clinton email scandal after a reported large number of Hillary related ones were found on Anthony Weiner's computer. 

The USC/LATimes poll ending 10/30 has Trump 45.6 % and Clinton  43.2 % Trump +3.4 This is his highest  since polling October 3rd

What makes this poll so striking is USC's methodology. It is a seven day "average of all the prior week's responses"
thus this poll only includes 2 day's post-Comey polling. Thus for there to be such a large increase based on 2/7 of respondents is significant. 

What the next few days will bring as more post-Comey respondents are included will be interesting to say the least. The ABC/Washington Post  tracker, saw Hillary down to +1 from +2 the previous day, only polled to 1 day after post Comey so indications are yet to come fully for them.

"About a third of likely voters say they’re less likely to support Clinton given FBI Director James Comey’s disclosure Friday that the bureau is investigating more emails related to its probe of Clinton’s use of a private email server while secretary of state. Given other considerations, 63 percent say it makes no difference."

The new IBD tracking poll post Comey
saw Clinton drop 2 points from 10/28 to 10/29
from +4 to +2.  IBD is a 5 day inclusive tracker so it only includes 1 day post Comey;

"Just Like That, Clinton Lead Shrinks By 2 As Email Scandal Blows Up – IBD/TIPP Poll"

In the Real Clear Politics polls the five most recent polls listed from 10/26 to 10/29 Clinton's aggregate lead is down to +1.8 points. In the tracking polls aggregate Trump and Clinton are tied as they are in Florida.
Rasmussen has gone the other way with Clinton gaining
three points ! to lead 45% to 42% but this is just noise and Rasmussen will move to Trump shortly.