They Love Her; Folks 15 Photo's of Gov.Palin In Michigan Today Campaign Trail For Trump

Accompanying tweet Thank you @SarahPalinUSA for meeting with us in Midland, MI this afternoon! #GoingRogue

Dem Elector "I won't Vote For Hillary" Could That Cost Her The Election? Yes It Could Quite Easily

First the man and his plan;

"A Democratic presidential elector in Washington state says he will not vote for Hillary Clinton.

Former Bernie Sanders delegate Robert Satiacum told ABC News Friday night that theDemocratic presidential candidate's stance on the environment clashed with his Native American heritage. "I will not vote for Hillary Clinton," he told ABC News. "I will not write her name. I will not. I will not."

The member of the Puyallup Tribe in the Evergreen State says he believes Clinton lied about using a private email server, calling it a "heinous act of stupidity."

"She has done nothing remarkable as Secretary of State or as the senator of New York," he continued. "She's bought and paid for ... I just can't get behind her. There's no character there."

He added, "Maybe I'll vote Mickey Mouse. In all seriousness, maybe I should vote for Bozo the Clown."

Satiacum's defection would matter only if Clinton landed at exactly 270 electoral votes on election night -- and Satiacum still went rogue in the face of immense pressure and weeks of unprecedented litigation.

This means Clinton would need to win 271 electoral votes -- not the usual 270-vote threshold -- on election night in order to ensure she would formally win the presidency two months later.

The news was first reported by the Associated Press.This potential defection prompts technical questions about the obscure process of the Electoral College.

When states are projected and electoral votes from each state are assigned on Election Night, the process is not automatic. Actual people called "electors" meet nationwide on Dec. 19 to cast ballots for president. The ballots are counted in the Capitol on Jan. 6 -- thus formally and officially electing the president.

Electors who do not vote for their state's winner -- dubbed "faithless electors" -- are rare, but they do happen. The last faithless elector was in 2004, when an elector voted for John Edwards for president over John Kerry. A faithless elector has never tipped the balance of a U.S. election, and any faithless elector who tried to do so would certainly face immense pressure and litigation

It's unclear whether the Washington State Democratic Party has a way to replace Satiacum or stop him from casting a rogue vote. State law requires electors to sign and "execute" a pledge that they will vote for their nominee and threatens them with a $1,000 civil fine if they don't. Party rules say party leaders have the authority to fill vacancies caused by "disqualification."

Representatives of the Washington State Democratic Party did not respond to requests for comment on Friday night. The electors were chosen at the state party's convention in June. States must settle all disputes over electors by Dec. 13."

Could there be a Clinton 270 Trump 268 result on November 8th? Yes most certainly and quite possibly actually;

In this example if  Mr. Satiacum held to his promise and voted for e.g. Bernie Sanders the result when the votes were counted woudl be Clinton 269 Trump 268 and Sanders 1.

The decision would be then left up to the House where each state would have one vote based on the majority count of each states congressmen (the Senate would choose the vice-president).

Since the Republicans control the majority of such delegations the could and most likely would choose Trump even if Clinton had won the popular vote and the initial Electoral College vote.

What this would do for the settling down of the country after such a divisive election doesn't bear thinking about-but it is a possibility.

The Trump Victory, Dem's Great Fear President Trump Empowering Blacks Economically

In 2012 President Obama was reelected with 93% of the African American vote to Romney's 7%
This massive support and turnout. Blacks turned out at a higher percentage than Whites for the first time, a record turnout 66% so dedicated were they to the ideal of having a Black president while White voting was depressed at 64.1%.

The Black turnout was vital in Obama's victory as Blacks voted en-mass in Ohio (96%) and Obama won Florida (95%) by less than 1%.

Post election statistics indications are Black voters supported Trump by 8% compared to the 6% Romney received while support for Clinton was down from 93% to 88%. The data is not in yet but it seems obvious that Black turnout as a percentage of available Black voters for her was much lower than for Obama


Prior to FDR's depression era landslide victory Blacks had always voted Republican since Emancipation after the Civil War. Economic necessity drove the majority of Black voters into the Democratic party even though Jim Crow, segregation and outright violence were an integral part of the Democratic party.

Democratic welfarism, especially notable with Lyndon Johnson's "Great Society" kept many urban Blacks in dependency to the party's machine, especially in the urban centers while the northern liberal wing, from the likes of Hubert Humphrey, did positive work in assisting with the removal of the disgusting racial laws. This welfare/racial progressive balance in the party ensured solid Black support.

The nomination of Barack Obama as the first Black candidate in 2008 and the ensuing pride for Blacks generated a massive level of Black voting support, at the 90% plus level in  2008 and 2012 (93%) allied to a Black turnout which exceeded White turnout in 2012-a historic first.

With Obama not able to run the question was would this level of support, or anything near it, transfer to Hillary Clinton?  The election day results show if did not. 


"Donald Trump is gaining support among African-American voters — whose enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton is eroding, a tracking poll released Saturday revealed.

Trump saw a 16.5 percentage-point increase in backing from African-American voters in a Los Angeles Times/University of Southern California tracking poll, up from 3.1 percent on Sept. 10 to 19.6 percent through Friday.

Meanwhile, the same poll showed Clinton’s support among that group plummeting from 90.4 percent on Sept. 10 to 71.4 percent."

Harper PA poll: Trump 18+% black voters. This would be highest in 50 years if even 15%.

MICHIGAN ABSENTEE VOTING: Democrats in major trouble. Black support in Michigan climbs to TRUMP 18%; Detroit Black Absentee voting down 46%

The level of high profile Black community leaders endorsing Trump is unprecedented and people like Ben Carson and the wonderful "Diamond and Silk Sisters" must have taken the edge off any Dem charges of "racism" which were preposterous.

And with Black politicians becoming part of  the new face of the party (Senator Scott, Colorado senate candidate Glenn, who narrowly lost, for example) there is clearly an encouragement to make an historic voting change.

With the racial environment as regards direct oppression through segregation a thing of the past, and certainly not discounting Black concerns regarding policing issues it appears that economic necessity has, once again, created a sea change for Black voters.

It would be willful blindness to to agree that the Black community, especially in many urban center such as Detroit and Chicago, has been beset with economic stagnation and ensuing high levels of crime. 

Clinton did not set a clear message of how she would or could address this problem after eight years of her party being in power. Trump in contrast is offering a message of economic renewal especially to those industrial areas where Blacks used to have substantial employment and clearly that has resonated.

This is the Dem"s Greatest Fear this election. A President Trump with Black support in his administration (Carson etc) empowering Blacks economically, ensuring fairer community policing and joined in Congress by a number of high profile Black legislators, permanently tearing off a large number of previously entrenched Black support which would cause a massive rent in the fabric of the Democratic electoral firewall

Trump's message to the Black community 'Vote for me, what do you have to lose" may be a major positive for the Black community and, if the message is taken up in large numbers, an utter disaster politically for the Democrats who will only have themselves to be blame for it.

State Polls/Electoral College 11/05/16 Aggregate Clinton 297 Trump 241

The state polls are catching  the trackers and many key swing states are moving to Trump and what will be key is to see how much further they go until they too stabilize to catch up with the trackers.

Florida on the other hand seems to have picked up the trackers now reversion to a few days post Comey as Clinton has seen some movement back to her. If this continues the election is anyone's guess especially as regards Florida which is the key state.

That said the Florida polls say one thing the actual early voting shows Trump running well ahead of Romney.

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Clinton leads in the Electoral College at 298 to 240 so at this point in time it's all about Florida as on current states results ifTrump wins it he gets to 269 a tie  at which point the GOP House would elect him or Maine's CD2 one EC vote will get him to 270

Aggregate Of Swing State Polls 11/6/16 CHANGE;Nevada/North Carolina/New Hampshire To Trump; Florida to Clinton

Georgia Trump +4.6
Arizona Trump +4.0

Iowa Trump +3.0
Ohio Trump +2.8

Nevada Trump +2.0

New Hampshire Trump +1.6
North Carolina Trump 0.8

Maine CD2 Trump +0.5
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Florida Clinton +1.0

Pennsylvania Clinton +2.4
Colorado Clinton +2.9

Michigan Clinton +4.7 Virginia Clinton +5.2

Final Tracking Polls 11/8. Most Accurate 2012 IBD Trump +2 USC/LATimes Trump +3.2

 To confirm;My analysis of 6 tracking polls; 

HILLARY CLINTON TO WIN THE POPULAR VOTE BY 0.4%

DONALD TRUMP TO WIN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE AND THE PRESIDENCY; (LINK)

FINAL TRACKING POLLS AGGREGATES; 11/4-7 

USC               Trump 46.8.%   Clinton 43.6 %   Trump +3.2

IBD                Trump 45.0%.    Clinton 43.0       Trump +2.0
PPD               Trump 45.8%  Clinton 45.2. %    Trump +0.6
Rasmussen  Trump 43%     Clinton 45%       Clinton +2.0
UPI/C             Trump 46.1%  Clinton 48.7       Clinton+2.6
ABC               Trump 43%     Clinton 47%      Clinton+4.0

Tracking Polls Final Aggregate Clinton +0.4 
MSM "One Off " polls final aggregate Clinton +4.1

In the most accurate polls from 2012 and the only ones of all final polls to predict a Trump win either they are right or the MSM polls are if it is these two there will be a revolution in polling;

IBD Final poll TRUMP +2
USC/LATimes final poll TRUMP +3.2

Pictures via Eric Dondero R

As detailed below Trump's rise with Hispanics, in the USC pool at least is remarkable and is actually growing.
He is now only 3.1 points behind Clinton at Clinton 46.7 Trump 43.6-his highest ever in this poll.

The other surprising result has been the steady rise in support from the college educated which was supposed to be Trump's major weakness yet the graph tells a different story; 

Trump's 39.6 support from this group is also his highest since the poll began;

As detailed below yesterday saw the third consecutive day of a drift to Clinton across the six tracking polls. I speculated that this might actually represent a return to the levels seen prior to the Comey shock as it marked a full week after and all the trackers had worked their way through the voters reactions.

Previous days report

The question was; where to from there? A continued move to Clinton, a tie right through to the election or would it break to Trump like the state polls have been doing.

If the new USC poll is an indication, which we may or may not see in the rest of the trackers, may be the final "Reagan 1980" tipping point.

Trump was only +1.5 in USC yesterday he is now +5.4. What drove this rise in particular was his continuing strength with women which must be a shock to the Clinton campaign. Trump is now at his highest with females since the poll began. He has closed the gap to only 7 points Clinton 46.9 to Trump 42.9 at one point he was 13 points in arrears.

IN USC's Hispanic polling Trump has almost completely closed the gap with Clinton Clinton 45.8 Trump 42.4 only 3.4 points separate them. Whether this accurately reflects the total Hispanic voting population would be surprising but the trend-lines mean something clearly population.

Seniors have shifted remarkably to Trump in the last few days Trump 54.3% Clinton 40.8% Trump +13.5 

 And Trump's new voters among the less educated have opened a massive gap Trump 55.7  Clinton 36.9 Trump +18.8

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