Tuesday, August 16, 2016

Tale of Two Convention "Bounces" There Was Only A Half Point Difference


Summary; Trump's peak post convention bounce week one was   +4.0 points
                         Hillary's  post convention bounce week one was  +4.6 points



Poll result July 17th one day prior to both convention   Trump 42.9 %  Clinton   42.2%    Trump   +0.7 Points

Poll result August 11th two weeks post conventions
Trump 43.1%    Clinton  44.2%     Clinton +1.1 Points 

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Difference after both conventions


1. Donald Trump's Convention "Bounce"


Using the USC/LATimes daily tracking poll the RNC results were as follows;


Republican National Convention July 18-21
Trump's poll on the last day    43.4%

Seven day post convention July 22nd to July 28th 

Trump's peak poll July 27th     47.4% +4.0 points (8.4%)                                                  
Trump's final week poll day                                     
                   July 28th                  46.7% +3.3 points  (5.8%)

Two weeks 8/4 post convention 
                                                     44.6% +1.2 points  (2.6%)

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2. Hillary Clinton's Convention "Bounce"


Using the USC/LATimes daily tracking poll which is the only poll publishing daily results the DNC results were as follows;


Democratic National Convention July 25th to 28th
Clinton's last day of the convention poll number was 40.6%


Seven days post convention July 29th to August 4th.


Clinton's peak post convention poll was (August 4th) on the final poll day  45.2 %                                                
   
One week post convention bounce was 4.6 points  (10%) 

Two weeks post convention August 11th 
44.2%  +3.6 points  (+8.1%)                 


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