Friday, July 22, 2016

New Poll;Hillary 35.7% Trump 34.9% Trump 12% Black Support

Spoiler alert it's Reuters. They rejigged their voter screen which was +10 Dem so for the first time this year they are coming into balance with most other polls. 

But they still have distortions as they show Hillary  winning white males which is just silly (as is Trump with their 12% Black support)

This poll concluded on the 21st while the RNC convention was still on and does not take full allowance for Trump's closing address so a Trump lead might be expected from their next poll.

As always, a single poll means little and the aggregate is what counts but once in a while it is OK to have fun especially when a poll gives ones side the advantage.

The trend is, after allowing for the polling adjustment, probably correct. 

How the Dem's convention goes will determine Clinton's "bounce" and after a further two weeks a clearer picture will emerge.

NB;The Reuters "likely voters" result, which polling is considered 'most accurate" has Hillary 40.8% and Trump 37.8% with a similar ascending trendline for Trump as the 'all voters" graph below.

The only other likely voters polls at RCP have Trump in the lead (slightly in the USC poll) and those are before the end of the RNC convention.