"In 2020, Minnesota Could Prove More Friendly to Trump than Blue Wall States Flipped in 2016"
If President Trump holds the non-"blue wall" (sic) states he won in 2016 he needs a ten Electoral College blue wall state minimum victory to get to at least 270 Electoral votes.
On the face of it it would appear Wisconsin, with its 10 EC votes is the best bet for that eventuality as among Pennsylvania, Michigan and the badger state it gave Trump his second largest blue wall margin.
However, Wisconsin swung Dem in the 2018 mid-terms and in the recent state Supreme Court election the Republican backed judge lost his bid for reelection so the state is by no means a certainty with Trump's 2016 win by only 22,738 votes. The current aggregate of Wisconsin polling has Trump trailing by 6.5% and he has never led in any poll of the state
Trump lost Minnesota and its 10 Electoral votes by 44,765 (1.5%) in the most blue of blue wall states which was the only state Walter Mondale carried against Reagan.
Arguably third, or actually forth party candidate Mormon Evan McMullin cost Trump the most unlikely of wins by taking 53,076 votes presumably most, if not all, from Trump. On top of that Libertarian Party candidate Johnson took just shy of 113,000 votes it being well with in the realms of possibility that again more Libertarian voters lean conservative than leftist.
Clearly there is a well of about 166,000 voters in Minnesota who have a majority who lean right rather than left. On present form neither McMullin nor the seemingly defunct Libertarian Party look to have anywhere near the same level of support in 2020 that they had in 2016 and the odds look better for Trump on the face of it without other considerations coming in to play.
And what considerations they are. On top of the ongoing Covid19 virus situation whose outcome and whose effect on the election and the economy in Minnesota specifically and nationwide is completely unknowable at this point in time the massive flare up in race relations which started in Minneapolis and now is being blamed on "out of state rioters"has complicated the picture further.
There has been only two polls of Minnesota too date; The Star Tribune Mason-Dixon in October 2019 which had Biden up 50% to Trump at 38% and more recently Mason-Dixon in Covid time 5/24/20 Biden 49% Trump 44%.
As detailed by Mason-Dixon Trump's polling is less than a point below his 2016 actual with 7% undecided.
The polling after the destructive rioting and looting may be instructive. Will there be a swing to the Dems based on sympathy for the Black Lives Matter movement or will there be a revulsion against the anarchistic rioting and looting which even liberal mayors and governors are condemning as being the actions of "outside agitators."
Will white voters 79% of the population of Minnesota (only 6.1% are Black) view a cause which had justifiable protests now turned into mindless violence as a reason to turnout in even larger numbers for Trump than they did in 2016?
Watch this space.
Note; Minnesota's Dem Governor Walz is doing his best to help Trump win the state too;
"Democratic Governor Tim Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, also a Democrat, have been outright disastrous in how they’ve handled the situation. They’ve allowed the city to be ruled by the mob. They’ve ceded parts of the city for them to destroy. It’s been a disaster.
Walz has been a bumbling clown in this situation and this fake talking point he trotted out only highlighted his failed leadership. It’s a total nightmare in Minneapolis. It’s a catastrophe. Don’t make it worse by making social justice warrior-infused pivots that only lead you to crash into walls. Reality isn’t that easily scaled, circumvented, or flanked, sir."