The Gallup poll asked Republicans and conservative independents who they preferred for president in 2012.
Romney scored 19%, Palin 16% and Huckabee 12%. The combined Palin+Huckabee result is 28%
Equally significant is the analysis of the preferences of conservative Republicans/independents who advised who they would choose as the presidential candidate for 2012.
Romney scored 19% Palin 16% and Huckabee 15% so the combined Palin+Huckabee conservative support is 35%.
Presuming the majority of Huckabee's Evangelical/Baptist support would go to Palin;
"Among Republicans who say religion is important in their lives, Huckabee (14%) is essentially tied with Romney (17%) and Palin (16%)."
She would have a significant advantage if this support was translated into caucus support in Iowa and voting support in South Carolina-two key early primary states. At this point the nomination, presuming Huckabee does not run, is hers to lose.
Thursday, September 30, 2010
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Earl Ofari Hutchinson Demeans His Standing As A Journalist With Tabloid Type Article On Palin And Booing
Frankly it is nothing short of amazing that a professional journalist, a noted television and radio commentator, who is credited with a substantial number of books can lower himself to the level of an Hollywood tabloid scribbler.
Hutchinson has produced a five paragraph column in Huffington Post which venue takes his work to an even lower level, which includes analyzing whether or not Sarah Palin was booed whilst she was in the audience to watch her daughter Bristol compete on Dancing with the Stars.
After castigating ABC for basically protecting their "cash cow"and giving his in depth coverage of what has been idiotically called "Boogate" by sections of the well named "Lame Stream Media" Hutchinson concludes that 'Palin almost certainly was booed on Dancing with the Stars. But a fearful ABC is more than happy to dance around that". He also states-weirdly "So why then the rush by ABC to clean up yet another in the telephone-book-thick list of Palin's dismal acts?". This is a clearly an example of PDS-what "dismal act" did Palin perform? All I saw was a proud mother sitting in the audience. Hutchinson has seen something else and perhaps needs to take professional advice.
Hutchinson tries to make what is effectively an E! Online article into something profound by linking ABC's professional presentation, via raw footage, of what is nearly universally accepted proof that the judges scoring was booed, not Palin (not that it mounts to a hill of beans either way). He links what he sees as ABC's act of self preservation, to Palin having seemingly destroyed the entire media "She's cowed the media. Her repeated taunt and jibe at the mainstream "lamestream" media as too liberal, too anti-Republican, too biased, and too sexist has hit home. That's caused many network executives to bunker down and tread carefully on any knock of Palin.." .
Well you could have fooled me!I see an endless flood of media attacks on Palin-her clothes, her daughter, her looks-just read the filthy comments on Huffington Post where people revel in the fact that Palin has had to have a restraining order taken out against a purported stalker-read the sexist garbage on trash site "Wonkette." Perhaps someone could point Mr.Hutchinson in the direction of the Vanity Fair hit piece which was so bad that even embarrassed left wing journalists called foul, unfair and untrue.
These media cowards are apparently hunkering down in fear of Palin's army of Tea Partiers-really, it's all so very very sad to see a representative of the leftist press like Mr. Hutchinson reduced to this level.
Hutchinson has produced a five paragraph column in Huffington Post which venue takes his work to an even lower level, which includes analyzing whether or not Sarah Palin was booed whilst she was in the audience to watch her daughter Bristol compete on Dancing with the Stars.
After castigating ABC for basically protecting their "cash cow"and giving his in depth coverage of what has been idiotically called "Boogate" by sections of the well named "Lame Stream Media" Hutchinson concludes that 'Palin almost certainly was booed on Dancing with the Stars. But a fearful ABC is more than happy to dance around that". He also states-weirdly "So why then the rush by ABC to clean up yet another in the telephone-book-thick list of Palin's dismal acts?". This is a clearly an example of PDS-what "dismal act" did Palin perform? All I saw was a proud mother sitting in the audience. Hutchinson has seen something else and perhaps needs to take professional advice.
Hutchinson tries to make what is effectively an E! Online article into something profound by linking ABC's professional presentation, via raw footage, of what is nearly universally accepted proof that the judges scoring was booed, not Palin (not that it mounts to a hill of beans either way). He links what he sees as ABC's act of self preservation, to Palin having seemingly destroyed the entire media "She's cowed the media. Her repeated taunt and jibe at the mainstream "lamestream" media as too liberal, too anti-Republican, too biased, and too sexist has hit home. That's caused many network executives to bunker down and tread carefully on any knock of Palin.." .
Well you could have fooled me!I see an endless flood of media attacks on Palin-her clothes, her daughter, her looks-just read the filthy comments on Huffington Post where people revel in the fact that Palin has had to have a restraining order taken out against a purported stalker-read the sexist garbage on trash site "Wonkette." Perhaps someone could point Mr.Hutchinson in the direction of the Vanity Fair hit piece which was so bad that even embarrassed left wing journalists called foul, unfair and untrue.
These media cowards are apparently hunkering down in fear of Palin's army of Tea Partiers-really, it's all so very very sad to see a representative of the leftist press like Mr. Hutchinson reduced to this level.
200th Blog Entry-An Appreciation to Passers By And To Sarah Palin For The Inspiration
To give an early start on blog entry # 201 I have edited blog entry #100 to reflect changed circumstances!
I would also very much wish to thank Josh Painter of "Texas4Palin" and Smitty from "The Other McCain" for their kind comments, references to my blog from time to time and appreciated suggestions. I am honored to be in the same blogosphere universe as these two luminaries. MJS September 2010
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I started this blog in November 2009 and in fits and starts have just passed thecentury double century mark of entries. With their being countless bloggers of every imaginable stripe I am honored that not only have some thousands tens of thousands of people from around the world been interested enough to have a look at an entry or two but that seven eight kind souls have gone so far as to bookmark the blog.
Now and then there have been, almost entirely positive, comments about some of my writings which of course are greatly appreciated. I haveone regret a particular pleasure in advising that I have been removed from restored to the list of Palin supporting blogs because, and rightly so in my view, I reflected that Palin, as things stand, is in a position where she would not can certainly advance to the Presidency.
However I felt theargument original position was cogent appropriate at the time and I do not resile from it and it would be putting ourselves in the same position as our political opponents if we are not open enough about our thoughts or a broad enough not to take with us more than just the conservative right which is too narrow a base for electoral success.
I made a deliberate plannot to include adverts for teeth whitening etc (without passing any judgement on any blog which has them-good luck to them fundraising wise) as I wanted to convey that this blog is an attempt at (for the most part) serious commentary with a few excursions in to personal reflections on things metaphysical/personal. I have failed a few times in trying to be witty but in general I trust I have kept to my original aims.
The blog has centred on Sarah Palin in the main, as to me the values (not necessarily policies) she embodies reflects my journey from, as the blog indicates, liberal to conservative. I regret that so many entries have had to focus on combating the negatives that the liberal media/blogs have created about her (created, as they are mostly pure fiction) rather than an analysis/exposition of her policies.
However I think that defense is a valid program as once the field is cleared of all the falsities, innuendos and other memes the left keep coming up with then, with the mind of the public cleansed of that rubbish, the serious work of policy development and explanation can begin.
Perhaps the task is an endless one sadly as the left is like a hydra and when a head is cut off another pops up just as ugly as the previous one. However the end result to be hoped for is worthy of the journey. If on the way I am joined by the occasional viewer/commentator/bookmarker (and who knows Paypal supporter ! Of course, like any dedicated blogger I would wish to do this full time and create a, in this case, thoughtful and hopefully inspiring, magazine of the right) then I will count myself as highly privileged to have the honor of your company.
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I would also very much wish to thank Josh Painter of "Texas4Palin" and Smitty from "The Other McCain" for their kind comments, references to my blog from time to time and appreciated suggestions. I am honored to be in the same blogosphere universe as these two luminaries. MJS September 2010
********************************************************************
I started this blog in November 2009 and in fits and starts have just passed the
Now and then there have been, almost entirely positive, comments about some of my writings which of course are greatly appreciated. I have
However I felt the
I made a deliberate plan
The blog has centred on Sarah Palin in the main, as to me the values (not necessarily policies) she embodies reflects my journey from, as the blog indicates, liberal to conservative. I regret that so many entries have had to focus on combating the negatives that the liberal media/blogs have created about her (created, as they are mostly pure fiction) rather than an analysis/exposition of her policies.
However I think that defense is a valid program as once the field is cleared of all the falsities, innuendos and other memes the left keep coming up with then, with the mind of the public cleansed of that rubbish, the serious work of policy development and explanation can begin.
Perhaps the task is an endless one sadly as the left is like a hydra and when a head is cut off another pops up just as ugly as the previous one. However the end result to be hoped for is worthy of the journey. If on the way I am joined by the occasional viewer/commentator/bookmarker (and who knows Paypal supporter ! Of course, like any dedicated blogger I would wish to do this full time and create a, in this case, thoughtful and hopefully inspiring, magazine of the right) then I will count myself as highly privileged to have the honor of your company.
********************************************************************
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Palin's Certain Path To Election 2012-Update # 3 ( New Census Analysis)
Politico carries an updated analysis from Election Data Services of new Census data in relation to changes in House seats which allow for further adjustment of my overview: Palin's "Sure And Certain Path To Election 2012". The latest analysis is further possible good news for Palin-should she have the nomination as it edges her even closer to the 270 electoral votes required.
In the original analysis her electoral vote winning path was determined;
McCain/Palin won 22 states with 173 electoral votes of the 270 required to be elected basis for victory.
The following two states were lost by under 1%. North Carolina 15 electoral votes lost by 0.4% and Indiana 11 EV 0.9%. Nebraska 1 EV 1.2% (The GOP won Nebraska's four other EV's). At the next level Florida's 27 EV's were lost by 2.5% and Ohio's 20 by 4.0% and at the highest level for this exercise Virginia's 13 EV's by 6.3% and Colorado's 9 EV's by 8.5%. All these states were won by Bush in 2004
Population shift and the consequent change in electoral votes, have some states gaining EV's and some losing. The projections, for the States under consideration here are:
Florida +1 to 28 Ohio -2 to 18. For states safely in the red column the gains are Texas +3 to 37 Arizona +1 to 11 Georgia +1 to 16 South Carolina +1 to 9. With these population based gains, plus regaining the 5 states from 2004 (and Nebraska's one EV) Palin would have 265 EV's-just 5 EV's short. Winning Colorado's 9 EV's would give her a comfortable victory and a 4 EV cover to allow for any loss of EV's in the 2008 won states e.g. Missouri and Louisiana.
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Subsequent to the above analysis the polling research firm Polidata reviewed the data with the following result;
Texas will now gain 4 electoral votes instead of the projected 3 Utah will gain 1 electoral vote instead of none Louisiana will lose 1 Missouri will not lose an electoral vote (this was considered a possibility).
The end result is that, based on my analysis, Palin will gain 2 further electoral votes (1 Texas and 1 Utah) and lose 1 (Louisiana) for a final gain of 1 electoral vote. This takes her projected total to 266 electoral votes-4 short of victory. As before this could come from Colorado's 9 electoral votes or Iowa's 6 electoral votes (Iowa loses 1 electoral vote from 7 but winning it still gives her a 2 electoral vote margin). As before she would have 28 states-well above half which gives added credibility.
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The newest data from Politico/EDS gives;
Florida a gain of 2 instead of 1 which takes it to 29 EV's and Missouri does lose 1 to to 10.
Thus Palin's prospective EV's stay at 266 However Nevada is now considered to gain 1 EV to 6. Bush won this in 2004 and if it is added to Palin's totals that would give her 272 and victory.
The winning structure is as before;
Retain all 22 states electoral votes won in 2008 plus their additional electoral votes from the population shift. Win the states lost by less than 2.5%-North Carolina, Indiana, Florida and Nebraska's 1 lost EV.
Update Florida 29 New York 29 Missouri 10 Texas 38
In the original analysis her electoral vote winning path was determined;
McCain/Palin won 22 states with 173 electoral votes of the 270 required to be elected basis for victory.
The following two states were lost by under 1%. North Carolina 15 electoral votes lost by 0.4% and Indiana 11 EV 0.9%. Nebraska 1 EV 1.2% (The GOP won Nebraska's four other EV's). At the next level Florida's 27 EV's were lost by 2.5% and Ohio's 20 by 4.0% and at the highest level for this exercise Virginia's 13 EV's by 6.3% and Colorado's 9 EV's by 8.5%. All these states were won by Bush in 2004
Population shift and the consequent change in electoral votes, have some states gaining EV's and some losing. The projections, for the States under consideration here are:
Florida +1 to 28 Ohio -2 to 18. For states safely in the red column the gains are Texas +3 to 37 Arizona +1 to 11 Georgia +1 to 16 South Carolina +1 to 9. With these population based gains, plus regaining the 5 states from 2004 (and Nebraska's one EV) Palin would have 265 EV's-just 5 EV's short. Winning Colorado's 9 EV's would give her a comfortable victory and a 4 EV cover to allow for any loss of EV's in the 2008 won states e.g. Missouri and Louisiana.
********************************************************************
Subsequent to the above analysis the polling research firm Polidata reviewed the data with the following result;
Texas will now gain 4 electoral votes instead of the projected 3 Utah will gain 1 electoral vote instead of none Louisiana will lose 1 Missouri will not lose an electoral vote (this was considered a possibility).
The end result is that, based on my analysis, Palin will gain 2 further electoral votes (1 Texas and 1 Utah) and lose 1 (Louisiana) for a final gain of 1 electoral vote. This takes her projected total to 266 electoral votes-4 short of victory. As before this could come from Colorado's 9 electoral votes or Iowa's 6 electoral votes (Iowa loses 1 electoral vote from 7 but winning it still gives her a 2 electoral vote margin). As before she would have 28 states-well above half which gives added credibility.
********************************************************************
The newest data from Politico/EDS gives;
Florida a gain of 2 instead of 1 which takes it to 29 EV's and Missouri does lose 1 to to 10.
Thus Palin's prospective EV's stay at 266 However Nevada is now considered to gain 1 EV to 6. Bush won this in 2004 and if it is added to Palin's totals that would give her 272 and victory.
The winning structure is as before;
Retain all 22 states electoral votes won in 2008 plus their additional electoral votes from the population shift. Win the states lost by less than 2.5%-North Carolina, Indiana, Florida and Nebraska's 1 lost EV.
Win Ohio,Virginia, and either Colorado or Iowa or Nevada.
Update Florida 29 New York 29 Missouri 10 Texas 38
Monday, September 27, 2010
Palin Polling At Upswing Tipping Point.Green Light For 2012 Run Signal
The Beltway "Common Wisdom" has been that as Sarah Palin's unfavorable ratings are consistently above 50% she would have little or no chance of ever succeeding in a presidential run. 50% appears to be the break point in this CW for all candidates. It is a fact that many times, even when a candidate has had a considerable lead in the polls over a rival but has been below the 50% mark in either percentage of the vote or unfavorable rating, then the top polling candidate has lost on election day.
With that as a guide there has been a perhaps significant development in Palin's recent polling, and most importantly the trend lines. The last time Palin's favorable ratings were more positive than her unfavorable was October 2008 reaching a nadir of 35/57 in August 2010. Since then there has been a significant recovery with Rasmussen in September showing a 48/49 result. The most significant thing is the trend line which for the first time since October 2008 has reversed direction as per the Pollster.com aggregate map below.
In fact, if we disregard the ridiculous CBS poll which had Palin at 23/40 with 20% undecided, 3% refused and an idiotic "Not heard enough" of 15% Palin's Favorables are 40.4% and Unfavorables are 50%.
Also significantly, if we look at the two latest September polls, we find that the undecideds have dropped strikingly from earlier polls-it appears that undecided are moving in Palin's favor and the average of the two latest polls is 46/49. If this trend continues it is only a matter of time before her positives are higher than negatives.
Why this move upwards? There are, as usual a number of factors for any polling change of direction. In Palin's case it may be that the negatives associated with her resignation have dissipated, the Vanity Fair hit piece may have been so over the top that it has finally elicited sympathy for Palin as regards the media's continuous negative portrayal of her, her perceived growing gravitas, and most probably her success in having her endorsed candidates-particularly Miller in Alaska, do so well.
In the head to head Obama Palin polling Palin is 8 points behind in the latest Politico poll which is a 9% improvement on her previous polling, and ballpark with the recent PPP poll which had her only 5 points behind.The next big test for Palin will be the result of the November elections. If her endorsed candidates do very well she will most likely have another uptick, probably into positive territory. If O'Donnell can pull off another upset win Palin will be under immense pressure, I believe, to declare a candidacy for the presidency.
***************************************************************************
FAVORABLE/UNFAVORABLE/ UNDECIDED/NOT HEARD ENOUGH
GWU/Politico (Lake/Tarrance) 9/19-22/10 1000 LV 44 49 - 2 5 -
Rasmussen 9/18-19/10 1500 LV 48 49 - 3 - -
Politico / Penn Schoen Berland 9/9-16/10 1668 A 41 50 - 9 - -
PPP (D) 9/10-13/10 590 RV 38 52 - 9 - -
Quinnipiac 8/31-9/7/10 1907 RV 31 50 - - 15 3
CBS News 8/20-24/10 1082 A 23 40 - 20 15 2 (Ridiculous!)
AP-GfK 8/11-16/10 1007 A 41 54 - 5 - 1
Politico / Penn Schoen Berland 8/6-11/10 1668 A 35 57 - 8 - -
PPP (D) 8/6-9/10 606 RV 37 54 - 9 - -
YouGov/Polimetrix 7/17-20/10 1000 A 37 51 - 12 - -
With that as a guide there has been a perhaps significant development in Palin's recent polling, and most importantly the trend lines. The last time Palin's favorable ratings were more positive than her unfavorable was October 2008 reaching a nadir of 35/57 in August 2010. Since then there has been a significant recovery with Rasmussen in September showing a 48/49 result. The most significant thing is the trend line which for the first time since October 2008 has reversed direction as per the Pollster.com aggregate map below.
In fact, if we disregard the ridiculous CBS poll which had Palin at 23/40 with 20% undecided, 3% refused and an idiotic "Not heard enough" of 15% Palin's Favorables are 40.4% and Unfavorables are 50%.
Also significantly, if we look at the two latest September polls, we find that the undecideds have dropped strikingly from earlier polls-it appears that undecided are moving in Palin's favor and the average of the two latest polls is 46/49. If this trend continues it is only a matter of time before her positives are higher than negatives.
Why this move upwards? There are, as usual a number of factors for any polling change of direction. In Palin's case it may be that the negatives associated with her resignation have dissipated, the Vanity Fair hit piece may have been so over the top that it has finally elicited sympathy for Palin as regards the media's continuous negative portrayal of her, her perceived growing gravitas, and most probably her success in having her endorsed candidates-particularly Miller in Alaska, do so well.
In the head to head Obama Palin polling Palin is 8 points behind in the latest Politico poll which is a 9% improvement on her previous polling, and ballpark with the recent PPP poll which had her only 5 points behind.The next big test for Palin will be the result of the November elections. If her endorsed candidates do very well she will most likely have another uptick, probably into positive territory. If O'Donnell can pull off another upset win Palin will be under immense pressure, I believe, to declare a candidacy for the presidency.
***************************************************************************
FAVORABLE/UNFAVORABLE/ UNDECIDED/NOT HEARD ENOUGH
GWU/Politico (Lake/Tarrance) 9/19-22/10 1000 LV 44 49 - 2 5 -
Rasmussen 9/18-19/10 1500 LV 48 49 - 3 - -
Politico / Penn Schoen Berland 9/9-16/10 1668 A 41 50 - 9 - -
PPP (D) 9/10-13/10 590 RV 38 52 - 9 - -
Quinnipiac 8/31-9/7/10 1907 RV 31 50 - - 15 3
CBS News 8/20-24/10 1082 A 23 40 - 20 15 2 (Ridiculous!)
AP-GfK 8/11-16/10 1007 A 41 54 - 5 - 1
Politico / Penn Schoen Berland 8/6-11/10 1668 A 35 57 - 8 - -
PPP (D) 8/6-9/10 606 RV 37 54 - 9 - -
YouGov/Polimetrix 7/17-20/10 1000 A 37 51 - 12 - -
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