Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Palin's Certain Path To Election 2012-Update # 3 ( New Census Analysis)

Politico carries an updated analysis from Election Data Services of new Census data in relation to changes in House seats which allow for further adjustment of my overview: Palin's "Sure And Certain Path To Election 2012". The latest analysis is further possible good news for Palin-should she have the nomination as it edges her even closer to the 270 electoral votes required.

In the original analysis her electoral vote winning path was determined;

McCain/Palin won 22 states with 173 electoral votes of the 270 required to be elected basis for victory.

The following two states were lost by under 1%. North Carolina 15 electoral votes lost by 0.4% and Indiana 11 EV 0.9%. Nebraska 1 EV 1.2% (The GOP won Nebraska's four other EV's). At the next level Florida's 27 EV's were lost by 2.5% and Ohio's 20 by 4.0% and at the highest level for this exercise Virginia's 13 EV's by 6.3% and Colorado's 9 EV's by 8.5%. All these states were won by Bush in 2004

Population shift and the consequent change in electoral votes, have some states gaining EV's and some losing. The projections, for the States under consideration here are:

Florida +1 to 28 Ohio -2 to 18. For states safely in the red column the gains are Texas +3 to 37 Arizona +1 to 11 Georgia +1 to 16 South Carolina +1 to 9. With these population based gains, plus regaining the 5 states from 2004 (and Nebraska's one EV) Palin would have 265 EV's-just 5 EV's short. Winning Colorado's 9 EV's would give her a comfortable victory and a 4 EV cover to allow for any loss of EV's in the 2008 won states e.g. Missouri and Louisiana.


Subsequent to the above analysis the polling research firm Polidata reviewed the data with the following result;

Texas will now gain 4 electoral votes instead of the projected 3 Utah will gain 1 electoral vote instead of none Louisiana will lose 1 Missouri will not lose an electoral vote (this was considered a possibility).

The end result is that, based on my analysis, Palin will gain 2 further electoral votes (1 Texas and 1 Utah) and lose 1 (Louisiana) for a final gain of 1 electoral vote. This takes her projected total to 266 electoral votes-4 short of victory. As before this could come from Colorado's 9 electoral votes or Iowa's 6 electoral votes (Iowa loses 1 electoral vote from 7 but winning it still gives her a 2 electoral vote margin). As before she would have 28 states-well above half which gives added credibility.


The newest data from Politico/EDS gives;

Florida a gain of 2 instead of 1 which takes it to 29 EV's  and Missouri does lose 1 to to 10.
Thus Palin's prospective EV's stay at 266 However Nevada is now considered to gain 1 EV to 6. Bush won this in 2004 and if it is added to Palin's totals that would give her 272 and victory.

The winning structure is as before;

Retain all 22 states electoral votes won in 2008 plus their additional electoral votes from the population shift. Win the states lost by less than 2.5%-North Carolina, Indiana, Florida and Nebraska's 1 lost EV.

Win Ohio,Virginia, and either Colorado or Iowa or Nevada.

Update Florida 29      New York 29   Missouri 10   Texas 38


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