Update:"Hillary 46-30-20 on Bush/Trump":Trump 3rd Party Run Could Give GOP The Presidency

UPDATE:Latest Poll with third party included; If this is even remotely the case in November 2016 the GOP would be doomed 

"Registered Voters poll has Hillary up 50-44 on Bush and 46-30-20 on Bush/Trump."

GOP Chairman Reince Preibus and the GOP establishment are walking on eggshells as regards Donald Trump's candidacy. Trump is impervious to the usual mechanics of reining in a contender, threats to turn off the financial spigot, threats of bad media.

The second of which has been underway from the git-go, to no avail as he vaults into the lead, and of course Trump is self-financing. Neither does the usual carrot of the promise of a plumb congressional or party position carry any weight with the successful billionaire businessman.

The reason for this caution is twofold. The GOP Establishment views Trump as a loose cannon whose statements they consider take away attention from the"serious" i.e. Establishment backed candidates. And, possibly more importantly, they fear Trump will run as a third party candidate, which possibility he has not ruled out on a number of occasions, thus, destroying any hopes the GOP has of defeating Hillary Clinton.

Clearly the Republicans would prefer to have a straight Republican versus Democratic election in 2016 but, if Trump ran, would that necessarily mean the GOP would lose in a three way competition? The answer is, perhaps surprisingly, that under certain, and actually very plausible circumstances, a Trump run could give the election to the GOP!

How plausible is this scenario? If Trump ran and won one state, New Hampshire with its tiny 4 Electoral College votes, that could throw the election into the Republican Party dominated House of Representatives.

In the map above every balance has been considered based on recent Electoral College history. The GOP has to win Florida from the start otherwise the election is over. Since President Obama won it by less than a half of one percent a Republican win is of course a strong possibility. The rest of the map are mostly McCain/Romney won states so, again it is more than plausible to assign them to the GOP. This leaves Virginia/Iowa/Colorado as the determining states.

Since no Republican has been elected without winning Ohio, and it was marginal in 2012, it is plausibly assigned to the GOP. Virginia has been assigned to the Dem's but could easily go Republican. Similarly Iowa and Colorado have been assigned to the GOP but could go Dem (giving the Dem's 268 votes, 2 short). 

The bottom line is that there are a number of very plausible combinations which, if a Trump third party won just New Hampshire, could throw the election into the House of Representatives as none of the candidates would have the 270 votes required to be elected.

Of all potential Trump states New Hampshire, with its record of switching back and forth between GOP and Dem, it's substantial vote for Nader in 2000, its surprise support for Hillary after Obama won Iowa and seemed invincible, and independent reputation seems a very strong possibilty.

 If Trump wins the Republican primary there, then it would clearly signal his chances as an independent. If Trump also won neighboring Vermont which, as Sanders shows can be quirky, then with 7 Electoral College votes the odds on no candidate having enough votes is substantial. A loss in Vermont alone would, even if the Dem's won New Hampshire, deny them them presidency as it would create a  GOP 268/ Dem 267  situation.

The popular vote tally would not come into consideration as it has not on a number of occasions, (Tilden/Cleveland/Gore) thus what would happen next is as follows:

Under the constitution, the GOP standard bearer, the Dem, and the third party candidate would be the candidates the House would decide from. (presuming no other candidate had any electoral college votes. If they did they would be eliminated from the balloting as only the top three go through for consideration)

Every state would have one vote based  on the result of each states party representation. Thus, for example New York’s one vote would go to the Dem, and Wyoming’s one vote would go to the Republican. 

It would be unlikely that the GOP would lose control of the House and the state caucus delegations in the 2016 Congressional elections, thus, on the most recent analysis, the GOP would have a majority of the 50 states votes based on caucus outcomes when balloting.

This scenario played out before. In the election of 1824 Andrew Jackson finished first with more electoral votes than John Quincy Adams, William Crawford came third and Henry Clay fourth. With Clay eliminated he threw the support of his states to Adams, who was duly elected, based on the fact of his having the majority of states.

It would not matter if the state/states Trump won voted for the Democrat as that would be only one or two delegations which would not be enough to overcome the GOP's majority of states delegations and thus the Republican would be chosen as the next president. The Senate, currently with a Republican majority would then choose the vice-president. Interestingly if the 2016 senate elections produced a tie, sitting Vice-President Biden could cast the deciding vote in favor of himself.

The above scenario is predicated on a Trump candidacy not taking so many votes from the GOP that there is a Democratic Party landslide. On the other hand Trump in this scenario might do as Perot did, according to the experts, and take votes evenly from both the Dem and GOP candidates and the above scenario would still play out. The big danger for the Republicans is not so much the Trump candidacy but who the Republican candidate was.

If it were another establishment person like Jeb Bush then the nightmare scenario for the Establishment, of the base deserting Bush for Trump, would indeed come to pass and produce a potential Electoral College disaster with Florida/Virginia/Ohio and all the other marginal states lost.

There is only one way of preventing this disaster and that is to nominate, in the case Trump goes third party, a person who can hold the base, in fact increase its turnout, gain some independent and blue collar ("Perot-ite") Dem's. 

Senator Cruz is a possibility but has limited time in government and may not have appeal to the indies and Perot-ites. It is clear to me that if Trump bolts only Governor Palin can possibly give the party a fighting chance. 

In that scenario it would be up to the GOP establishment to decide, at the convention, if they wish to lose massively (including the senate) or make a solid go of it with Palin. I have set this out in detail at;
LINK; "Trump Problem Reince Preibus? Call Sarah Palin Stat!"

If Palin Endorsed Trump The GOP Primary Season Would Be Over

I wrote this back in July when the media gave Trump no hope. I am pleased to say my analysis stood the test of time. With speculation rampant that Governor palin may endorse Trump Tuesday I thought it opportune to visit the ramifications
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With Trump clearly in the ascendancy and every media attack meme failing ("he won't run/register/release tax-income info/has no chance/alienated Hispanics") the very real possibility exists that, even at this early stage, Trump could seal the deal.

Even if Trump reinforces his image of a straight talking successful businessman with concrete ideas when the debates commence it would not necessarily shake off all his rivals-they, especially Bush and Cruz, are too well funded.

But, nearing 20% polling now, and passing Jeb Bush, if Trump received a huge polling spike and the minor players started to pull out with their support going, in the main to him, then there would be 4-5 players. The scene would then be the field trailing far behind and Bush and the rest staying in, in the hope Trump self-destructed.

What would be the power that could propel Trump so far in front that is caused such a radical change in the current candidate placings and numbers? There is only one, and that would be if Sarah Palin endorsed him wholeheartedly and asked her supporters to vote and work for him.

Such a massive change has happened before with a Palin endorsement. Senators Ayotte/Cruz/Fischer/Sasse and many more in offices from governor to attorney general to congressmen owe their primary wins and election in whole or in part to Palin. For example, Cruz's rise from 3% to beating an establishment figure in Texas owed, by his admission, a massive debt to Palin's endorsement.

Trump however is not in the lowly poll position most of Palin's endorsed candidates were, rather he is in a sharp ascendancy in a crowded field.

If Palin made a strong public endorsement it is inconceivable that there would not then be a sudden and strong uptick in Trump's support and campaign workers (money not being in the equation). If Trump's polls lifted to over 30%, whilst Bush stayed in the 12-14% level he currently is in, then momentum would put Trump in an almost unassailable lead.

What point would there be, except vanity or book sales perhaps, for the likes of Graham/Fiorina/Santorum/Huckabee and all the other sub 5% candidates to stay in a hopeless race? As they dropped out if even half of their support also transferred to Trump he would be approaching 40%.

If, at that level of support he won the first primary states, which he should in a situation where a plurality was needed to win, then it would be game over.

Would Palin give such an endorsement? At this point in time there is still a window of opportunity for her to enter the lists herself is she so desired. In my opinion the window is closing and if she has not decided by the end of August it would seem unlikely that she would enter. If she does enter then it is of course a whole different ball game. 

But if she is not in the race, the end of August would appear to be a perfect time for her to endorse. If she does, and it is Trump, then the Republican primary would, for all intents and purposes, be over. 

The leftist media and the "snark" blogs and Dem fronts like "HuffingtonPost" would have a field day attacking a Palin endorsement of Trump. 

But their attacks would fail even more badly then they have done so far as the ordinary base voter would have had a gutful of their elitism and be driven even further to Trump's side-himself a victim of their snobbery.

See: (LINK) "Update;Trump Destroys Bush In Nevada:Trump's First Month In The Polls Has Devastated All Opposition (Graphs)"

Update;Trump Destroys Bush In Nevada:Trump's First Month In The Polls Has Devastated All Opposition (Graphs)

UPDATE:
Since I wrote the article below a new poll has come out in Nevada which reinforces, graphically that Trump is in the ascendancy. It further puts the lie to the "Trump is destroying the GOP's Hispanic vote potential."

Trump Leads Nevada Poll With Overwhelming Hispanic Support

JULY 16, 2015

Trump Has Commanding Overall Lead of 27.7% in Nevada Poll with 31.4% Support by Hispanics

Donald Trump entered the 'Real Clear Politics' "Poll of Polls" aggregate poll chart on June 17th. The aggregate polls are considered to be a realistic snapshot of where a particular candidate is at any given time because it averages out all the available polls. 

This formula worked well for Nate Silver's "Fivethirtyeight.com" website across the last presidential elections when individual polls often got things wrong e.g. the "Romney in the lead" polls in 2012 which, as it so turned out, got the Republican camps spirits up only to be heartbroken at the real result.

Here is the RCP chart for June 17th 2015 (the thin gray vertical line indicates the date on the graph) which has Trump's first entry.

As can be seen this was exactly the moment when Jeb Bush began a sharp ascendancy, Rubio was in the midst of his major descent as were Walker and Cruz. Carson/Huckabee/Paul/Christie were at levels they have all declined, some sharply, from.

Here is the RCP aggregate poll one month later, and the results are striking.

Bush peaked at 17.8% on July 13 and has commenced a steep decline to 15.5% Trump has gone from a first entry at 3.6% to be effectively tied with Bush at 15.0%. The latest Fox poll has Trump at 18% to Bush , in third place, at 14%-if this trend continues Trump will shortly be in first place.

Where has this massive leap for Trump come from? Rubio down from 10% to 6% Carson from 9.4% to 5.8% Huckabee from 8.6% to 5.8% stand out. The total percentage for the, at the time, 9 main candidates excepting Trump but including Perry at 2% was 71.2 today it is 62.4. This will be even lower if, trend continuing, Bush continues to decline as sharply as he has lately in conjunction with Trump's rise.

The facts are that every single candidate from the date of Trump's entry has either declined sharply from peak (Bush), declined or stayed the same (Perry and Santorum at a minuscule 2%). New entries Graham, Kasich, Fiorina, Jindal, Pataki have made no impression or not appeared at all. 

Those considered on the conservative right Cruz, Huckabee, Carson,Walker have lost a combined 10.3 points."Establishment" candidates Rubio and Christie have lost 5.8 points and, from peak, Bush has lost 2.3 points clearly a majority of these 18.4 point total  losses have gone to Trump for him to go from 3.6% to 15% in just one month.

 Interestingly the losses from the conservative and establishment groups are almost even which could show Trump is drawing support from across the board not just the "populist" base that the media has tried to show he only appeals to. That fact may be the most significant point from this analysis as it could well show Trump does have the broad base of support to not only win the nomination but the election. 

Polls showing Trump far behind Hillary Clinton at this point are utterly meaningless as were the polls showing Reagan being clobbered by Carter and Bush Snr. being massively behind Dukakis. Once the nominations are secured the polls will draw closer as they almost always do. 

At the moment Trump is not only clearly on the rise but is doing so at such a rate, and drawing support from all quarters he appears to have moved beyond the "flavor of the month" role that a number of previous high fliers had. 

Whether this will be be sustained to such a point that Trump will be an unstoppable force is to be seen. the fact that Senator Cruz "I'm a big fan of Trump" requested a meeting with Trump and   Dr. Carson indicated a willingness to "run with Trump" may be a strong indicator at which way the wind is blowing for the moment.

 In the meantime though, that Trump has confounded the media and the naysayers is one highly positive aspect that all Republicans, even including the candidates in decline, can enjoy surely.

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If Romney & Gingrich Had Had Half Trump's Moxie USA Would Be Better Place

The media's unrelenting vicious attack on Donald trump continues apace. I detailed  just some of the Left media's attacks and the GOP Establishments fulminations over a twenty four hour period, and nothing has changed except the tempo has increased in its surliness and hate with Karl Rove now joining in.

The wilder fringes of the media are now running with the absurd notion that Trump is either a Democratic Party "plant" or that he is running to secretly destroy the GOP to enhance Hillary's prospects. We have not seen the likes of this since the media and the "progressive" left went totally berserk after Sarah Palin was chosen as VP nominee in 2008

All these 'worthies" are doing is absolutely cementing in place that the media is a tool of the Establishment, both the liberal and GOP country club versions. The attacks are, of course, also rocketing Trump to now, first place in the polls ahead of Jeb Bush, as the base clearly sees who is the enemy and who is speaking to and for them.

Whether Trumps ascendancy continues in the long run is to be seen of course, there might be a brief hiatus as Governor Walker becomes "candidate of the week" and has a brief honeymoon blip upwards after his official announcement of candidacy as has been the case for nearly all previous candidates.

However whatever the eventual result for Trump he has provided a valuable service in exposing the media, warts and all, as utterly biased tools of the Establishment on left and "right,'

He has also brought the campaign out of its somnambulist boring path and made the other candidates have to face the issue of immigration which clearly resonates with a vast swathe of the public as well as, of course, the base. 

But perhaps more than anything else Trump has highlighted that the GOP needs, and responds to a candidate that fights. This Spanish language conservative site has run three articles (translatable) using Lincoln's words about Grant "I can't spare this man-he fights" to promote those virtues in Trump.

There are, no better illustrations of the difference that having  candidate that fights, no matter the elites disdain, is vital to winning than the Gingrich/Romney campaigns in 2012. Gingrich rocketed to mass support in the South Carolina primary after he took to the media, in exactly the same way Trump has, during the candidates debate in that state-winning the subsequent election in a landslide. 

He then completely wimped out in the following primary in  Florida where he let Romney's massive media spend, and the media's attack on his perfectly valid call for further space exploration, destroy him without fighting back hard-he was effectively finished from that point on.

Similarly Romney absolutely caned President Obama in their first debate and then, oddly, let the momentum go by, inexplicably playing Mr.Nice Guy in the subsequent debates instead of doubling down and going for the jugular. 

John McCain could be added to this sorry list of examples of not fighting as hard as possible when he "suspended" his 2008 campaign after leading in the polls-never to recover.

The point is that it is unimaginable that Trump would have wimped out in the manner of Gingrich, Romney and McCain if those same moments had occurred with him as the candidate. It is imaginable that Jeb Bush would play the Romney role though and with so much stake against Hillary there is no room for someone as the nominee who will not fight and fight hard, exactly like Trump (or Palin for example, I could not imagine a scenario where she too would cave in). 

If a "Trump" had run in 2012 (or 2008) America would be a much different, and much better place, it would be tragic if the same will be said in 2017.

Trump Twists Knife Into Arrogant, Dying Breed, Media

Update; here's Washington Post's political creep in chief Dana Milbank completely proving my point :

Donald Trump as a “rotten pig,” a “fraud” (Via Breitbart)
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In his speech in Arizona Donald Trump actually made an error in his reference to the media. He advised that, in my interpretation in essence,  that they were all no good, biased and distorters. He then qualified the statement by advising that "not all journalists" were as I describe them based on my interpretation of his comment.

I am being overly cautions of course in presenting my analysis of what to anyone who was listening was Trump stating the obvious. Where I differ with Mr. Trump is that I don't think a single one of the so called objective media is anything but as I describe them. The only possible qualification I can make to that is that, amongst the genuinely objective journalists there are indeed some who are manifestly fair and honest.

But amongst the so called objective media there has been an unrelenting cascade of utter elitist snobbery, hate, bias and distortion the likes which have not been seen since August 2008 when the rat pack descended en-mass on Governor Palin. Like Palin though, Trump has hit right back at them and is utterly undaunted, unmoved and unmovable by them.

Trump's rise in the polls to now virtual tie in the latest and to second place just behind Bush in the 'Real Clear Politics' average of the two latest nationwide polls clearly indicates the absolute lack of power the traditional media now has.

I have reviewed the most prominent recent media articles about Trump and every single one is full of abject scorn, derision and bias. Actually this level of elitist scorn predates his candidacy, and so sure of their prophetic ability a number printed articles basically stating he would not run (Crow Eating For time for "Trump Won't Run "Michael Scherer/Matt Bai/Kyle Smith/Teagan Goddard et al) and the whole idea was just a publicity stunt. When he did announce they then declared he would not register-which of course he did and of course there has been silence from the arrogant media with no acknowledgement of their errors.

Here are just a few examples-over the last two days alone

Dana Milbank/Noah Rothman/John Fund/Mataconis/Tomasky et al.Proof he's doing something right
The Monster Republicans Created - Dana Milbank, Washington Post
Trump Is Perfectly Willing to Help Clinton Win - John Fund, Natl Review
The Right Way to Condemn Donald Trump - Noah Rothman, Commentary



New York Times "Can’t Fire Him: Republican Party Frets Over What to Do With Trump"


'New Yorker' runs obligatory hate piece in measured East Coast elite viciousness "

The Trump Balloon

BY DAVID REMNICK"

http://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-trump-balloon …

http://recovering-liberal.blogspot.co.nz/2015/06/crow-eating-fortrump-wont-runmichael.html …

(The execrable )David Brooks "Republican party needs to ignore Donald Trump."

Maxwell Tani / Business Insider:

Donald Trump just gave an amazingly surreal speech in Las Vegas  —

Jonah Goldberg at NRO is a classic piece or elitism

"I, on the other hand, find him tedious, tacky, and trite. He’s a bore who overcompensates for his insecurities by talking about how awesome he is, often in the third person."

Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/421045/donald-trump-fraud

Jonah Goldberg

Michael Bender at Bloomberg concludes his article  (which actually commences in the headline "Anti-Trump"-perhaps there is an honest journalist after all?Anti-Trump

Is Donald Trump Helping the Bush Brand?

 with a statement from just somebody " "I don’t want to see Trump," he offered. "That’s a waste of my time."

The media are just too arrogant, or dumb or both in many cases, to understand that such a gross spectacle of piling on only reinforces the base, the ones that actually go out and vote in the primaries, clear understanding that the media hates them. They, not Trump (as Lindsey Graham idiotically stated Trump was) are in a hole digging themselves, not to China, but to Hell.