Saturday, July 18, 2015

If Palin Endorsed Trump The GOP Primary Season Would Be Over

I wrote this back in July when the media gave Trump no hope. I am pleased to say my analysis stood the test of time. With speculation rampant that Governor palin may endorse Trump Tuesday I thought it opportune to visit the ramifications

With Trump clearly in the ascendancy and every media attack meme failing ("he won't run/register/release tax-income info/has no chance/alienated Hispanics") the very real possibility exists that, even at this early stage, Trump could seal the deal.

Even if Trump reinforces his image of a straight talking successful businessman with concrete ideas when the debates commence it would not necessarily shake off all his rivals-they, especially Bush and Cruz, are too well funded.

But, nearing 20% polling now, and passing Jeb Bush, if Trump received a huge polling spike and the minor players started to pull out with their support going, in the main to him, then there would be 4-5 players. The scene would then be the field trailing far behind and Bush and the rest staying in, in the hope Trump self-destructed.

What would be the power that could propel Trump so far in front that is caused such a radical change in the current candidate placings and numbers? There is only one, and that would be if Sarah Palin endorsed him wholeheartedly and asked her supporters to vote and work for him.

Such a massive change has happened before with a Palin endorsement. Senators Ayotte/Cruz/Fischer/Sasse and many more in offices from governor to attorney general to congressmen owe their primary wins and election in whole or in part to Palin. For example, Cruz's rise from 3% to beating an establishment figure in Texas owed, by his admission, a massive debt to Palin's endorsement.

Trump however is not in the lowly poll position most of Palin's endorsed candidates were, rather he is in a sharp ascendancy in a crowded field.

If Palin made a strong public endorsement it is inconceivable that there would not then be a sudden and strong uptick in Trump's support and campaign workers (money not being in the equation). If Trump's polls lifted to over 30%, whilst Bush stayed in the 12-14% level he currently is in, then momentum would put Trump in an almost unassailable lead.

What point would there be, except vanity or book sales perhaps, for the likes of Graham/Fiorina/Santorum/Huckabee and all the other sub 5% candidates to stay in a hopeless race? As they dropped out if even half of their support also transferred to Trump he would be approaching 40%.

If, at that level of support he won the first primary states, which he should in a situation where a plurality was needed to win, then it would be game over.

Would Palin give such an endorsement? At this point in time there is still a window of opportunity for her to enter the lists herself is she so desired. In my opinion the window is closing and if she has not decided by the end of August it would seem unlikely that she would enter. If she does enter then it is of course a whole different ball game. 

But if she is not in the race, the end of August would appear to be a perfect time for her to endorse. If she does, and it is Trump, then the Republican primary would, for all intents and purposes, be over. 

The leftist media and the "snark" blogs and Dem fronts like "HuffingtonPost" would have a field day attacking a Palin endorsement of Trump. 

But their attacks would fail even more badly then they have done so far as the ordinary base voter would have had a gutful of their elitism and be driven even further to Trump's side-himself a victim of their snobbery.

See: (LINK) "Update;Trump Destroys Bush In Nevada:Trump's First Month In The Polls Has Devastated All Opposition (Graphs)"