Monday, July 20, 2015

Update:"Hillary 46-30-20 on Bush/Trump":Trump 3rd Party Run Could Give GOP The Presidency

UPDATE:Latest Poll with third party included; If this is even remotely the case in November 2016 the GOP would be doomed 

"Registered Voters poll has Hillary up 50-44 on Bush and 46-30-20 on Bush/Trump."

GOP Chairman Reince Preibus and the GOP establishment are walking on eggshells as regards Donald Trump's candidacy. Trump is impervious to the usual mechanics of reining in a contender, threats to turn off the financial spigot, threats of bad media.

The second of which has been underway from the git-go, to no avail as he vaults into the lead, and of course Trump is self-financing. Neither does the usual carrot of the promise of a plumb congressional or party position carry any weight with the successful billionaire businessman.

The reason for this caution is twofold. The GOP Establishment views Trump as a loose cannon whose statements they consider take away attention from the"serious" i.e. Establishment backed candidates. And, possibly more importantly, they fear Trump will run as a third party candidate, which possibility he has not ruled out on a number of occasions, thus, destroying any hopes the GOP has of defeating Hillary Clinton.

Clearly the Republicans would prefer to have a straight Republican versus Democratic election in 2016 but, if Trump ran, would that necessarily mean the GOP would lose in a three way competition? The answer is, perhaps surprisingly, that under certain, and actually very plausible circumstances, a Trump run could give the election to the GOP!

How plausible is this scenario? If Trump ran and won one state, New Hampshire with its tiny 4 Electoral College votes, that could throw the election into the Republican Party dominated House of Representatives.

In the map above every balance has been considered based on recent Electoral College history. The GOP has to win Florida from the start otherwise the election is over. Since President Obama won it by less than a half of one percent a Republican win is of course a strong possibility. The rest of the map are mostly McCain/Romney won states so, again it is more than plausible to assign them to the GOP. This leaves Virginia/Iowa/Colorado as the determining states.

Since no Republican has been elected without winning Ohio, and it was marginal in 2012, it is plausibly assigned to the GOP. Virginia has been assigned to the Dem's but could easily go Republican. Similarly Iowa and Colorado have been assigned to the GOP but could go Dem (giving the Dem's 268 votes, 2 short). 

The bottom line is that there are a number of very plausible combinations which, if a Trump third party won just New Hampshire, could throw the election into the House of Representatives as none of the candidates would have the 270 votes required to be elected.

Of all potential Trump states New Hampshire, with its record of switching back and forth between GOP and Dem, it's substantial vote for Nader in 2000, its surprise support for Hillary after Obama won Iowa and seemed invincible, and independent reputation seems a very strong possibilty.

 If Trump wins the Republican primary there, then it would clearly signal his chances as an independent. If Trump also won neighboring Vermont which, as Sanders shows can be quirky, then with 7 Electoral College votes the odds on no candidate having enough votes is substantial. A loss in Vermont alone would, even if the Dem's won New Hampshire, deny them them presidency as it would create a  GOP 268/ Dem 267  situation.

The popular vote tally would not come into consideration as it has not on a number of occasions, (Tilden/Cleveland/Gore) thus what would happen next is as follows:

Under the constitution, the GOP standard bearer, the Dem, and the third party candidate would be the candidates the House would decide from. (presuming no other candidate had any electoral college votes. If they did they would be eliminated from the balloting as only the top three go through for consideration)
Every state would have one vote based  on the result of each states party representation. Thus, for example New York’s one vote would go to the Dem, and Wyoming’s one vote would go to the Republican. 
It would be unlikely that the GOP would lose control of the House and the state caucus delegations in the 2016 Congressional elections, thus, on the most recent analysis, the GOP would have a majority of the 50 states votes based on caucus outcomes when balloting.
This scenario played out before. In the election of 1824 Andrew Jackson finished first with more electoral votes than John Quincy Adams, William Crawford came third and Henry Clay fourth. With Clay eliminated he threw the support of his states to Adams, who was duly elected, based on the fact of his having the majority of states.

It would not matter if the state/states Trump won voted for the Democrat as that would be only one or two delegations which would not be enough to overcome the GOP's majority of states delegations and thus the Republican would be chosen as the next president. The Senate, currently with a Republican majority would then choose the vice-president. Interestingly if the 2016 senate elections produced a tie, sitting Vice-President Biden could cast the deciding vote in favor of himself.

The above scenario is predicated on a Trump candidacy not taking so many votes from the GOP that there is a Democratic Party landslide. On the other hand Trump in this scenario might do as Perot did, according to the experts, and take votes evenly from both the Dem and GOP candidates and the above scenario would still play out. The big danger for the Republicans is not so much the Trump candidacy but who the Republican candidate was.

If it were another establishment person like Jeb Bush then the nightmare scenario for the Establishment, of the base deserting Bush for Trump, would indeed come to pass and produce a potential Electoral College disaster with Florida/Virginia/Ohio and all the other marginal states lost.

There is only one way of preventing this disaster and that is to nominate, in the case Trump goes third party, a person who can hold the base, in fact increase its turnout, gain some independent and blue collar ("Perot-ite") Dem's. 

Senator Cruz is a possibility but has limited time in government and may not have appeal to the indies and Perot-ites. It is clear to me that if Trump bolts only Governor Palin can possibly give the party a fighting chance. 

In that scenario it would be up to the GOP establishment to decide, at the convention, if they wish to lose massively (including the senate) or make a solid go of it with Palin. I have set this out in detail at;
LINK; "Trump Problem Reince Preibus? Call Sarah Palin Stat!"