Saturday, March 20, 2010

PPP Poll Indicates Palin Can Have The Nomination If She Wants It

The latest PPP poll of Republicans gives the following result
Romney 28%
Huckabee 24%
Palin 23%
Ron Paul 11%
Undecided 9%

It is perfectly logical that if Huckabee does not run-which at this point seems likely-the bulk of his support would go to Palin.He is an evangelical like her and shares many of the same values. Should Huckabee endorse his fellow Fox commentator then it is likely the absolute majority of his support would go to her.

It is well known that there is little love lost between Huckabee and Romney so it is very unlikely that Huckabee would endorse Romney.

It is also unlikely that Ron Paul would be a serious candidate for the G.O.P nomination. Palin’s endorsement of his son Rand Paul for Senator from Kentucky illustrates that Palin and Paul share some degree of similarity of views. As with Huckabee if Paul is going to endorse a candidate it is more likely to be Palin than Romney especially with Palin having supported Rand Paul.

Given that Huckabee and Paul don't seek the nomination and the bulk of their support, especially with an endorsement, goes to Palin and the 9% undecided goes to her to any degree, she would be comfortably over the 50% mark of voter support.

Significantly, Palin polled as most popular with 69% viewing her favorably compared to Romney's 57% and Huckabee's 54% favorability rating.

The primary campaigns come in to play at this point and might negate the level of party members support if things play out for Romney delegate wise. For example if he had a strong run from New Hampshire to Florida (his strong polling there is surprising given the rapturous reception Palin got in the 2008 election and her recent book tour ) to Texas and picked up the bulk of all of the New York and California delegates in winner take all elections.

It is also surprising that Texas should poll so well for Romney given Palin's strong support for Governor Perry, her huge reception at the campaign rally, and Perry doing so well in the recent primary so further polls of that state will be interesting.If Palin can take it then with the bulk of the south, the southwest and midwest she should carry enough delegates to get the nomination.

Palin's address to the upcoming Southern Republican Leadership Conference in New Orleans (April 8-11) and the straw poll might be a vital clue to how she will fare going forwards especially as both Romney and Huckabee are not scheduled to address the conference.

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