Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Moderates Striking Swing To Palin In New Poll

Sarah Palin holds her second place position, three points closer, to Huckabee in the latest PPP poll of Republican voters in North Carolina. If, as seems likely, Huckabee chooses not to run in 2012 there would be little doubt that Palin would garner the bulk of his support and win the state handily. There are minor fluctuations amongst polled Women/Men and a 5% move from Palin to Undecided voters in the conservative category.

The striking result is amongst Moderates. There is a massive swing to Palin of 14%. It appears that 9% of this came from previous Moderates who were Huckabee supporters and 5% from previously undecided moderates. This is highly significant and if a trend is being established it is the first sign of the cut through of the new image of Presidential level gravitas Palin has exhibited in her recent run of speeches, and policy postings.

These, allied with her "humanizing" appearance on Leno, which showed moderates that she is intelligent and self deprecating (and which may have caused some hesitation amongst conservatives) will in due course be reflected in a steady upward climb in more polls. This will be the end result of a fed up country looking for a move to traditional values and the person who most personifies them.

PPP (D) North Carolina 2012 GOP Primary

•Mike Huckabee 30% (33%)
•Sarah Palin 27% (27%)
•Mitt Romney 25% (25%)
•Undecided 17% (14%)

Among Men
•Mitt Romney 30% (24%)
•Mike Huckabee 29% (35%)
•Sarah Palin 25% (27%)
•Undecided 15% (14%)

Among Women
•Mike Huckabee 31% (30%)
•Sarah Palin 30% (29%)
•Mitt Romney 20% (27%)
•Undecided 19% (15%)

Among Conservatives
•Mike Huckabee 33% (34%)
•Sarah Palin 25% (30%)
•Mitt Romney 24% (24%)
•Undecided 18% (13%)

Among Moderates
•Sarah Palin 32% (18%)
•Mitt Romney 30% (30%)
•Mike Huckabee 23% (32%)
•Undecided 15% (20%)

Survey of 311 likely Republican primary voters was conducted March 12-15, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 5.6 percentage points. Political ideology: 74% Conservative; 23% Moderate; 3% Liberal. Results from the poll conducted February 12-15, 2010 are in parentheses.

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