Thursday, April 1, 2010

Further Poll Analysis Shows Palin Potentially Way Out In Front For G.O.P. Nomination

In the previous analysis of the most recent PPP polling looking at the Republican frontrunners nationwide, which had Romney at 28% Huckabee at 24% and Palin at 23% , I made the point that the reality is that Palin is far out in front. Given that Huckabee is unlikely to run (the Intrade betting mark of his getting the nomination is 6.3-Palin is at 24 and Romney 23.1 ) and if you add the bulk of his supporters to Palin's result ( especially given there is little love lost between Romney and Huckabee) and the undecideds split fairly evenly,  Palin would be around the 50% mark.

At the "Republican Rankings" blog they have done an analysis of the PPP polling by state with the following caveat

"The news isn't all bad for Palin, though. A February Magellan Strategies survey had her winning Kentucky. "  They forgot to add that the poll they published for  Arizona showed, in that substantially Mormon state, Palin led Romney by 28% to 27% with Huckabee at 13%-following the same principle of Huckabee's supporters supporting Palin she would  have a substantial lead.

If we extend this principle to the PPP state polling, my computations  are the P+H (Palin + Huckabee) percentages on the right, the true strength of Palin's support is apparent . Of course 100% of Huckabee's support won't transfer but enough will to give her a winner take all plurality where applicable.

Colorado and (surprisingly) Florida are a problem for Palin, Ohio is a pleasant surprise as is Wisconsin. There are no percentage figures for Georgia but there is little to suspect it would not be much different for Palin than Alabama. Another challenge for Palin is California where the Magellan poll had Romney,not surprisngly, at 31% to Palin's 18 % and Huckabee's 13%. However this vital state is viable if we allow for the bulk of Huckabee's support to go to Palin and the majority of the 8% Ron Paul polled. The decider at this point would be the 12% that Gingrich polled, presuming that he too is not a candidate.

The state-by-state polling PPP has done, thus far.

Alabama: Huck 41%, Palin 27%, Romney 20%            ( P+H   68%)
Colorado: Romney 44%, Palin 25%, Huck 17%           ( P+H   42%)
Florida: Romney 52% Huck 21% Palin 18%                ( P+H   39%)
Georgia: 1) Huck 2) Romney 3) Palin                         ( P+H  3+1 Positioning)
Missouri: Huck 32% Palin 28% Romney 22%              ( P+H   60%)
New Mexico: Romney 33% Palin 32% Huck 18%        ( P+H  50%)
North Carolina: Huck 30% Palin 27% Romney 25%     ( P+H  57%)
Ohio: Romney 32% Huck 28% Palin 26%                    ( P+H  54%)
Texas: Romney 32% Huck 29% Palin 23%                  ( P+H  52%)
Wisconsin: Romney 32% Palin 27% Huck 23%            ( P+H  50%)

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