Thursday, January 1, 2015

How Might Governor Palin Do In the 2016 Primaries? Here's How

The question was asked how Sarah Palin would do in the early states. Here is the way that I see it.
The first thing is the schedule. The RNC lowered the boom on states that violate timing rules. Any state other than Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada, that schedules their primaries before March 1, 2016 will take a huge hit in delegates. 
Bigger states will see their delegates reduced to 12 and smaller states will go to 7. As a result, Arizona and Missouri have moved their contests from February to March. Michigan will likely move from February to March. North Carolina has said they will move from February.
The states in parentheses are projected while the others are either statutory or written in the rules of the GOP.

Jan 18
*Iowa - Palin is a easy winner. I suspect Bush will largely abandon the state. 
Nearly 50% of voters are very conservative and nearly 60% are evangelical.
Jan 26
*New Hampshire - Worst case scenario is that Palin picks up delegates. Her 
message of reform could push her over the top.
There is some question as to whether SC or Nevada goes next.
Feb 7
*South Carolina - This state has been very good to Palin even though she has 
never run in it. Her endorsement of Haley moved Haley from last to first
in the primary and her semi-endorsement of Gingrich helped push him
over the line in 2012.
Feb 14
*Nevada - I would favor Palin in Nevada as well. Her rally in Stoplight, Nevada,
drew a large number of people. Plus over half of voters in 2012 were 
very conservative.
Mar 1
*Colorado, Florida, *Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, *Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia
I like Sarah Palin in the caucuses in Colorado and Minnesota, Oklahoma, and Tennessee. 
In these states, Santorum and Gingrich got over 50% in Colorado, 60%+ in Georgia, Minnesota, Oklahoma, and Tennessee. Idaho is Palin's birth state. Palin is well in tune with Texas. 
Palin can pick up delegates in Massachusetts and Vermont. Bush likely sweeps Florida. Virginia is a toss-up state. I see her doing well in southern Virginia. Northern Virginia can be a problem because of government workers. Would not surprise me to see Bush go after Palin for her remarks of the wealthiest counties being in Northern Virginia.
Mar 5
Louisiana - I like Palin as a easy winner here.
Mar 8 - 
Alabama, Hawaii, Mississippi, Ohio
Alabama and Mississippi are in the Palin camp. She picks up delegates in Hawaii. Ohio is the interesting state. In 2012, Romney beat Santorum by 1 however Gingrich got 15% of the vote. 
Santorum and Gingrich's share of the vote was 52%. Santorum won 6 congressional districts. Gingrich and Santorum got more votes than Romney in 5 other congressional districts and Ron Paul and Gingrich got more than Romney in 2 other districts. A Ohio win would take a big state from the Ford column into the Reagan column.
Mar 15
Illinois, Missouri, Michigan
I like Palin in Missouri. Michigan is the prize here. It is a big state that Ford won and could be flipped. Michigan is a crossover state which means blue-collar Democrats can vote in either primary. Romney narrowly won in 2012, but came within 700 votes of walking away with more delegates than Santorum. Gingrich and Santorum combined pulled more votes than Romney.
Mar 22
Arizona is generally a conservative state. I like Palin here.

Above is an analysis of how the GOP's primaries might well shake out if Governor Palin decides to run for president in 2016. This well thought out and highly positive overview was presented by "busybee01" at Conservatives4Palin and is reproduced with permission and thanks.

No comments: