Sunday, December 26, 2010

Bristol's House In Arizona Is The Perfect Base For Palin's 2012 Run

Speculation abounds as to why Bristol Palin has bought a 5 bedroom house in Maricopa Arizona. Whether or not Bristol moves to Arizona to go to ASU is a sidelight to the overarching reason i.e. Arizona ia the perfect base for Sarah Palin to conduct her 2012 presidential campaign from.

It is hardly a coincidence that one of her key staffers, her lawyer Thomas Van Flein, is moving to Washington to work for newly elected Arizona Congressman Paul Gosar, whom Palin endorsed. Also, that Todd Palin had a long look-see at the area with the Deputy Mayor of Maricopa before Bristol bought the house (whose 5 bedrooms would seem excessive for Bristol and her baby).

Sarah Palin clearly found that McCain’s 2008 base was ideal as a hub and the electoral map for 2012 clearly dictates the same reasoning would apply. Obviously, given the enormous distances involved, Alaska would be to challenging, time-wise at least, to run a campaign from.

Then why Arizona?

An examination of the electoral map  (below) route to victory for Palin makes everything clear. If on election night Florida goes for Obama, then Republican supporters might as well turn off the television, as there is no combination of states, subsequent to the loss of Florida, which can give the Republicans the 270 electoral votes needed for victory.

This implies that Palin's VP choice should be a Catholic with experience cred's such as Rudy Giuliani, or an Hispanic Catholic from Florida i.e. Marco Rubio. Both would appeal to the Hispanic voting block in Florida (Rubio being the obvious choice based purely on pragmatism) and in the vital southwest states.

Assuming Florida goes for the G.O.P. then North Carolina and Indiana should come back into the fold. Virginia is crucial as 270 EV's can't be reached without it unless the Hispanic vote in Nevada or New Mexico can be won over to some degree. Given this scenario the absolute key states start to unfold.

Ohio, Iowa, are battleground states each with their own peculiarities. Arizona, Colorado, Texas, New Mexico and Nevada are states where the Hispanic/Catholic vote will be crucial. Having a base in Arizona would allow Palin substantial time to make as many visits to these states as would be necessary.
Palin has many allies who can take up the cudgels on her behalf too, which is a legacy of her brilliant endorsement program, such as McCain, Gospar, Brewer, new Governor Terry Branstad in Iowa and of course Governor Perry in Texas.

It is obvious that next to zero time and resources should be spent in the Eastern or Western states or in the safe states of the South and Mid-West. This is an excellent situation as it allows for the maximum spend in time, advertizing and supporters energy where it matters most.

Once again Palin confounds her critics who are dumbfounded as to why Bristol has purchased a house in Arizona. Let them continue to write her off as having no electoral skills, they will be utterly undone in November 2012..

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