Monday, January 14, 2013

Hillary Clinton 2016;The Election America Has To Have Like Obama's And Then Can Move On?

If Hillary Clinton decides to run in 2016 it is likely, as Newt Gingrich advises, that with the current state of the GOP and no major economic shocks, she would be "unbeatable".

It may be that the GOP has to put up with twelve more years of a Democrat being in the white house tempered by having a Republican congress. 

Not only is Clinton a formidable candidate due to her track record of solid service and the wellspring of sympathy for her for her having, unexpectedly, lost to Barack Obama and the burdens of her private life but, as with Obama she represents "an election victory that America has to have".

Barack Obama's election was such a defining event as electing a Black put the seal on the civil rights movement,and purged any vestige of racism in the body politic (think back to only a short time ago to the Wallace campaign). 

Further it has provided the impetus for the republican party to shed its pure white image and to attract/have stand for office culturally conservative Blacks and Hispanics. 

This latter result may in fact be an unintended positive consequence of the Obama elections as it will help widen the appeal of the GOP. 

Now that electing a Black to the highest office is a matter of no consequence, discussion or import once President Obama leaves office the natural election cycle can reassert itself undistorted by the race question and, perhaps, an unusual level of Black voters turning out for presidential elections.

However, the natural cycle will have to wait for one (or perhaps two) out of the historic norm elections to take place. Clearly the next "distortion" will be the election of a woman to the presidency. 

The VP campaigns of Ferraro and Palin were of course harbingers, as was Clinton's 2008 attempt. If she decides to run in 2016 the weight of history, feminism  women being a majority allied to her own persona and accomplishments would make her, as Gingrich implied, beyond formidable.

It may happen that subsequent to her election the administration performs so badly that the GOP may only have to wait four years as the spell would have been broken. Whether four or eight years the historic impetus towards a Black and then a woman in the white house will have passed and the normal cycle can resume unimpeded by these necessities.  

Except of course it may be time in four or eight years for an Hispanic president but because of the widening of the GOP's base because of the Obama presidency that person might be a Republican.

Needless to say, if Hillary Clinton does not run in 2016 then the Republican's have just as much chance of making the historic breakthrough with Sarah Palin or any number of other highly qualified conservative women (or Hispanic men and women)

No comments :