Friday, November 13, 2015

Poll of "Poll of Polls"The Best Snapshot Of The GOP Presidential Race? Trump 26.35% Carson 22.5%

Polling history seems to confirm that aggregating polls. State polls are notorious (see Kentucky governor race polling failure) for a number of reason. the best way to deal with the,history shows,is when they are aggregated which smooths out the distortions/bias (and you need a number not just two)

That Cruz is even tied (if he is) in his own state in a new Texas poll is no big deal.

The only "reliable" polls at this time are the Real Clear Politics and Huffington Post Pollster presidential aggregates both of which show Trump ahead. 

They use different parameters. RCP uses polls from selected organizations who use telephone interviews whereas HuffPost simply includes all polls from all sources in its aggregate averaging.

Some pundits, especially, for what it is worth Nate Silver see online polls as totally valid whereas RCP appears to think otherwise. However, if aggregate smooths out all distortions then it is fait to say an aggregate which includes both RCP and Huffpost would be the most accurate availabel.

If that is the case the case then this is the current situation

Thus the "poll of aggregate pollsters gives these results today;

TRUMP 26.35%

CARSON 22.25%

RUBIO 12.5%

CRUZ 10.35%

BUSH 6,25%

PAUL 3.0%

KASICH 2.85%