Thursday, March 17, 2016

New Poll; "Trump Trounces Rivals In New York 64% To Cruz 12%"

Latest Emerson College poll for New York sees Donald Trump destroy all rivals in the Empire State;

"Buoyed by a string of decisive primary wins this past Tuesday, both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump hold a commanding lead in New York State, where a victory in the April 19 primary could effectively seal the presidential nomination for both candidates.

With Marco Rubio out of the race, Trump leads his closest rival, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, by 52 points (64% to 12%). Rubio received 4% of the vote before suspending his campaign. Ohio Governor John Kasich earned just 1%, getting no bounce from his recent home-field victory in the Buckeye State. In a hypothetical, two-man matchup between Trump and Cruz, Trump leads 69% to 25%."

Trump has the highest favorable ratings with GOP voters, 71%/23%, followed by Cruz at 52%/44% and Kasich at 54%/34%. Consistent with other primaries, Trump supporters are the most loyal, with 89% of those who see him favorably planning to cast their ballot for him. In contrast, only 21% of Republicans who have a favorable opinion of Cruz say they will vote for him."

In Trump's run-up to crossing the 1237 threshold  Trump Could win all 95 delegates in New York state.

If Trump wins the state-wide vote with more than 50%, he'd get 14 delegates and then 3 delegates for each district if over 50%, otherwise 2 per district.

Hillary leads Trump 55% to 36% in NY State. But in 2012 Obama carried it 63% to 36% and 2008 62.2% to 36.7%

New York seems impenetrable for GOP no matter who is the candidate but possible 8 point drop for Hillary could be very significant nationwide

Also today in Arizona Trump has a healthy lead in that winner take all state