Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Donald Trumps Path To the Nomination Via 1237 Delegates Looks Solid

Donald Trump with his current delegate haul of 752 now needs 485 bound delegates to cross the 1237 required to be nominated on the first ballot out of 757 bound delegates remaining.
Kasich cannot of course be nominated on the first ballot and neither can Senator Cruz who needs 774 Delegates out of 757 bound Delegates remaining to make it to 1237 which is an impossibility. Thus it is clear that both men are in the race to deny Trump his 1237 on the first ballot. It is also clear that Messrs. Romney/Bush/Walker/Rubio and all the other Establishment people who have belatedly endorsed Cruz are doing it only to stop Trump and then dump Cruz at their leisure after the first ballot.
An analysis, based on the most current polling for New York and Wisconsin, most reasonably finds the Trump poll from those two states are 79 delegates from New York 33 from Wisconsin. The upcoming Northeastern Trump friendly states could, very easily supply the following delegates;
Wisconsin 33 New York 79 Connecticut 28 Maryland 38 Delaware 16 Rhode Island 12 Pennsylvania 17=223 +752 he currently has = 975
Then another 265 from the 48o to come including the big one California with 172 so the target is doable. I am pretty confident American Samoa's 9 delegates are in the bag at the convention and Trump will get some of Pennsylvania's unbound 54 delegates
I make the total pool after the above states is 480+54 +9=543 to get 265 from. Thus Trump needs an average of 49% from then on.

The Wisconsin primary on Tuesday April 5th will be the GOP establishments last, realistic chance, to if not halt, then at least to slow down Donald Trump's march to the magic figure of 1237 delegate votes and the Republican nomination.

Wisconsin is, after another hiatus, the gateway to the Northeastern states, commencing with New York on April 19th and then five further on April 26th.

These Trump **friendly, to say the least, states provide a massive haul of 213 delegates. Only Rhode Island is proportional in awarding its 19 delegates whereas Maryland and Delaware are winner take all. 

*** New York (as Connecticut) has most of its delegates awarded by congressional district and if a candidate gets 50% he gets all three in each. Trump is 64% in a recent New York poll (He averages 56% across 3 March polls) and could possibly win all 95 delegates if that holds. 

Pennsylvania is an odd mixture with only 17 of its 71 delegates awarded to the winner and 54 "unaligned" so in effect it gives fewer delegates than tiny Rhode Island.

Thus from Wisconsin on the 5th to Rhode Island on the 26th Trump could quite readily have collected
975 or so delegates with a further 490 or so delegates available in later primaries including Trump friendly New Jersey (51) and California (a massive 172). 

It seems obvious that a Trump win, by no how small 
 (a margin ) in the winner take most state would mark the end of any chance for Cruz to win the nomination on the first ballot


Breakdown of support by congressional district (CD):
CD 1 Milwaukee
Trump: 29.8%
Cruz: 27.6%
Kasich 26.3%
CD 2 Milwaukee suburbs
Kasich: 33.1%
Trump: 26.6%
Cruz: 18.1%
CD3 SW Wisconsin
Trump: 31.8%
Kasich 25.6%
Cruz 22.6%
CD 4 Milwaukee North
Cruz: 30.1%
Kasich 25.5%
Trump 24.2%
CD 5 MidState/Madison
Cruz: 32.2%
Kasich 28.3%
Trump 26.7%
CD 6 West
Trump 36.1%
Kasich 29.0%
Cruz 24.7%
CD 7 North
Trump: 35.5%
Cruz: 23.7%
Kasich 21.3%
CD 8 Green Bay
Trump: 29.4%
Kasich 25.5%
Cruz 21.1%
Trump actually leads in 5 CD's, Cruz in 2 and Kasich in 1. If those results hold, Trump will walk away with 33 D (15 from CD and 18 for winning statewide vote. Earlier today I predicted 30 D.
Trump support in the Mid-Atlantic and New England:
TRUMP 65.0

***New York

Here is a breakdown of the 27 CD's in NY State from the Optimus poll:

CD------------------ 1--------2---------3-------4-------5-------6-------7------8------9
Trump----------- 56.3-----58.6----52.8---50.6----52.0--57.8---40.7--51.8--50,9
Cruz------------- 9.1------8.0-----10.3---13.1----15.0--13.0---17.9
Trump leads in 26 of 27 CD's.

He is polling >50% in 12 CD's; he is between 40% and 50% in 7 CD's.
Anyway Trump would earn 79 delegates:
12 x 3= 36
14 X 2= 28
1 x 1 = 1
PV= 14

Total 79