Monday, March 21, 2016

Donald Trump's Remarkable Polling Day Hits 40% RCP Aggregate For 1st Time

UPDATE; Donald Trump's aggregate average at RCP has now passed the 41% level (44%) his highest ever

By any standards this is a remarkable result for Donald Trump. With Rubio gone the meme that Trump will fail when the field is "winnowed" is exploded as is the "surge" for Rubio and Kasich.

Unheralded, unmentioned by the media, is a major polling event. Donald Trump has reached the 40% mark, his highest point ever, in the Real Clear Politics aggregate poll of polls.

RCP, unlike the Huffington Post Pollster includes a limited number of polling firms with a strong emphasis on pollsters that do live telephone interviews.

There is no getting around this for the media/GOP Establishment-as the graph indicates clearly it is Trump that has surged significantly after Florida/Rubio's exit and there is no sign of a Kasich surge."

The nationwide polls are almost exactly the same. Trump at either 45% 47% or 46% up either 19, 20 points or 16 points.

Arizona, with its 56 winner take all delegates seems more than secure for Trump with a 13 point lead and massive turn out at his rallies.

Th  Utah poll still included Rubio so the final analysis can't be determined but the key for Trump is to be above 15% and for Cruz to be below 50%. If that eventuates Trump will get a proportion of Utah's delegates. 

If the two scenarios play out Trump could end up on Tuesday with north of 750 delegates with the big winner take all northeast states to come