Monday, March 28, 2016

Wisconsin; The Establishments Last, Last Gasp Stop Trump Attempt.

The Wisconsin primary on Tuesday April 5th will be the GOP establishments last, realistic chance, to if not halt, then at least to slow down Donald Trump's march to the magic figure of 1237 delegate votes and the Republican nomination.

Coming after Trump's major delegate haul in Arizona, which put him at 755 delegates  (ignore all the media outlets which have him at  lower figure) Wisconsin with its winner take all further haul of *33 delegates would put Trump at near 788 delegates, massively ahead of Cruz at about 466 and of course Kasich at about 144 (with no mathematical chance of winning).

Wisconsin is, after another hiatus, the gateway to the Northeastern states, commencing with New York on April 19th and then five further on April 26th.

These Trump **friendly, to say the least, states provide a massive haul of 213 delegates. Only Rhode Island is proportional in awarding its 19 delegates whereas Maryland and Delaware are winner take all. 

New York (as Connecticut) has most of its delegates awarded by congressional district and if a candidate gets 50% he gets all three in each. Trump is 64% in the latest New York poll and could possibly win all 95 delegates if that holds. 

Pennsylvania is an odd mixture with only 17 of its 71 delegates awarded to the winner and 54 "unaligned" so in effect it gives fewer delegates than tiny Rhode Island.

Thus from Wisconsin on the 5th to Rhode Island on the 26th Trump could quite readily have collected
990 or so delegates with a further 490 or so delegates available in later primaries including Trump friendly New Jersey (51) and California (a massive 172). 

It seems obvious that a Trump win, by no how small 
 (a margin ) in winner take all would mark the end of any chance for Cruz to win the nomination on the first ballot.

Clearly the only reason Cruz, and especially Kasich, would have for staying in the campaign would be to hope they can take enough delegates from the post Northeastern states to deny Trump getting to 1237 and the hoping for the best from a contested convention. 

The GOP establishment can obviously count the same numbers as I can and have discovered, all of a sudden, that Cruz is now not the"most hated man in the senate" and Kasich has sterling qualities, none of which were apparent when Jeb Bush was running.

It is all so blatantly dishonest and utterly hypocritical. Obviously both Cruz and Kasich are saddle less riders on a horse who is being curried and groomed for another rider who would be saddled and spurred in all his establishment glory once Messrs. Cruz and Kasich were disposed of in a contested convention. That these gentlemen think otherwise is either stubbornness beyond hope or vainglory in extremis and is a sad reflection on them.

That the establishment believes that robbing Trump of the nomination through their two puppets would not cause a massive revolt by the grass roots and the lowest turnout in GOP history is a further example of arrogance and stupidity and a Pyrrhic "victory" which could see the end of the GOP altogether.

But all this cast of establishment misfits and their lackeys will carry on at least till Wisconsin. Watch for massive pressure on Kasich to drop out and the call for his supporters to tactically vote for Cruz. In reality the best bet for Kasich would be for his supporters to tactically vote for Trump to eliminate Cruz after his disaster in Arizona. But, apparently being irreparably dull witted they do the opposite 

"Report: Kasich pulling radio ads in Wisconsin"

Given its importance every media lickspittle, every establishment dollar, every lie no matter how gross, every fake "push poll" every Wisconsin establishment figure will be thrown at Trump without let up or quarter.

Against them are the people's lion and the people. If they prevail in Wisconsin the very demons of Hell will have failed and Trump's victory will be assured.

Breakdown of support by congressional district (CD):
CD 1 Milwaukee
Trump: 29.8%
Cruz: 27.6%
Kasich 26.3%
CD 2 Milwaukee suburbs
Kasich: 33.1%
Trump: 26.6%
Cruz: 18.1%
CD3 SW Wisconsin
Trump: 31.8%
Kasich 25.6%
Cruz 22.6%
CD 4 Milwaukee North
Cruz: 30.1%
Kasich 25.5%
Trump 24.2%
CD 5 MidState/Madison
Cruz: 32.2%
Kasich 28.3%
Trump 26.7%
CD 6 West
Trump 36.1%
Kasich 29.0%
Cruz 24.7%
CD 7 North
Trump: 35.5%
Cruz: 23.7%
Kasich 21.3%
CD 8 Green Bay
Trump: 29.4%
Kasich 25.5%
Cruz 21.1%
Trump actually leads in 5 CD's, Cruz in 2 and Kasich in 1. If those results hold, Trump will walk away with 33 D (15 from CD and 18 for winning statewide vote. Earlier today I predicted 30 D.

Trump support in the Mid-Atlantic and New England:
TRUMP 65.0
Mailbox 19.0