Saturday, November 5, 2016

The Trump Victory, Dem's Great Fear President Trump Empowering Blacks Economically

In 2012 President Obama was reelected with 93% of the African American vote to Romney's 7%
This massive support and turnout. Blacks turned out at a higher percentage than Whites for the first time, a record turnout 66% so dedicated were they to the ideal of having a Black president while White voting was depressed at 64.1%.

The Black turnout was vital in Obama's victory as Blacks voted en-mass in Ohio (96%) and Obama won Florida (95%) by less than 1%.

Post election statistics indications are Black voters supported Trump by 8% compared to the 6% Romney received while support for Clinton was down from 93% to 88%. The data is not in yet but it seems obvious that Black turnout as a percentage of available Black voters for her was much lower than for Obama

Prior to FDR's depression era landslide victory Blacks had always voted Republican since Emancipation after the Civil War. Economic necessity drove the majority of Black voters into the Democratic party even though Jim Crow, segregation and outright violence were an integral part of the Democratic party.

Democratic welfarism, especially notable with Lyndon Johnson's "Great Society" kept many urban Blacks in dependency to the party's machine, especially in the urban centers while the northern liberal wing, from the likes of Hubert Humphrey, did positive work in assisting with the removal of the disgusting racial laws. This welfare/racial progressive balance in the party ensured solid Black support.

The nomination of Barack Obama as the first Black candidate in 2008 and the ensuing pride for Blacks generated a massive level of Black voting support, at the 90% plus level in  2008 and 2012 (93%) allied to a Black turnout which exceeded White turnout in 2012-a historic first.

With Obama not able to run the question was would this level of support, or anything near it, transfer to Hillary Clinton?  The election day results show if did not. 

"Donald Trump is gaining support among African-American voters — whose enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton is eroding, a tracking poll released Saturday revealed.
Trump saw a 16.5 percentage-point increase in backing from African-American voters in a Los Angeles Times/University of Southern California tracking poll, up from 3.1 percent on Sept. 10 to 19.6 percent through Friday.
Meanwhile, the same poll showed Clinton’s support among that group plummeting from 90.4 percent on Sept. 10 to 71.4 percent."

Harper PA poll: Trump 18+% black voters. This would be highest in 50 years if even 15%.

MICHIGAN ABSENTEE VOTING: Democrats in major trouble. Black support in Michigan climbs to TRUMP 18%; Detroit Black Absentee voting down 46%
The level of high profile Black community leaders endorsing Trump is unprecedented and people like Ben Carson and the wonderful "Diamond and Silk Sisters" must have taken the edge off any Dem charges of "racism" which were preposterous.

And with Black politicians becoming part of  the new face of the party (Senator Scott, Colorado senate candidate Glenn, who narrowly lost, for example) there is clearly an encouragement to make an historic voting change.
With the racial environment as regards direct oppression through segregation a thing of the past, and certainly not discounting Black concerns regarding policing issues it appears that economic necessity has, once again, created a sea change for Black voters.
It would be willful blindness to to agree that the Black community, especially in many urban center such as Detroit and Chicago, has been beset with economic stagnation and ensuing high levels of crime. 
Clinton did not set a clear message of how she would or could address this problem after eight years of her party being in power. Trump in contrast is offering a message of economic renewal especially to those industrial areas where Blacks used to have substantial employment and clearly that has resonated.
This is the Dem"s Greatest Fear this election. A President Trump with Black support in his administration (Carson etc) empowering Blacks economically, ensuring fairer community policing and joined in Congress by a number of high profile Black legislators, permanently tearing off a large number of previously entrenched Black support which would cause a massive rent in the fabric of the Democratic electoral firewall
Trump's message to the Black community 'Vote for me, what do you have to lose" may be a major positive for the Black community and, if the message is taken up in large numbers, an utter disaster politically for the Democrats who will only have themselves to be blame for it.