Monday, November 21, 2016

The Black Community Mayoral Election That Foretold A Trump Presidency

There were two highly significant factors in the election of Donald Trump to the presidency and both relate o the African American community.

Trump increased his share of the Black vote (and the Hispanic vote) over Romney's 2012 performance

Clinton had a marked decrease in Black voter support from President Obama's 2012 total as per Wayne County (Detroit) Michigan which was more than enough to cost her the state.

If Black voters had turned out for Clinton as they did for Obama, while Trump's share of their support decreased from Romney's, then it is highly probable she would have been elected. But they didn't.

Three obvious factors are seen here. Firstly, Black support for President Obama at his massive level (95%) was not transferable, in its entirety, to Clinton. This no doubt was the result of massive pride in the first Black president moving unprecedented numbers to vote for Obama. In 2012 for the first time Black turnout was larger than White turnout.

Secondly Black voters did not see Clinton as an inspiring figure. Clearly her campaign of "I am not Trump" had little resonance for the concerns of the African American community, neither did the opportunity to put the first woman into the White House.

Thirdly, as perhaps the most significant and little remarked on reason, was that despite all the "KKK/David Duke/ "racist" scaremongering the Black community did not see Trump in such a light. 

There can be no doubt that if he had been perceived as a genuinely racist threat then despite Clinton's lack of appeal they would have turned out for her in larger, decisive numbers.

Simply put neither the media nor the Democratic campaign could find a single instance of any racism or racist statement by Trump over his entire long career in the public spotlight. So apparently unconcerned by "Trump racism" were 18-29 year Black voters in Florida that 8% felt they had the luxury of voting for either Stein or Johnson over Clinton

However significant numbers of leading Black churchmen supported Trump, the "Diamond and Silk" ladies supported Trump vociferously from start to finish on social media, and Trump's friendly treatment of Dr. Carson and Carson's subsequent support would not have gone unnoticed.

The clear signals that Black voters were ready to consider not voting for a Democratic candidate, and further for electing a White candidate, were first seen in a major and highly significant way in retrospect was the election of Mike Duggan as Mayor of Detroit in November 2013. Detroit's population is 80% Black yet Duggan won by ten points as the first White mayor in 40 years.

A year later in rock solid Democratic Maryland wit a Black population of around 20%, Republican Larry Hogan, a businessman defeated his Black Democratic rival for the governorship.

In both these elections the mood was for economic and structural change, as the voices in the links make absolutely clear, with no indication of any concerns whatsoever as regards race. 

It would be foolish not to consider Trump's win, which was based absolutely on that structure, as not being in direct descent from these two striking elections. And further to also conclude that Trump's "what do you have to  lose" appeal to the Black community was a perfectly reasoned and reasonable statement which resonated and to which Clinton had no reply.

If Trump succeeds in reinvigorating the African American community economically whilst ensuring their social concerns are met the Democratic Party will be in 
serious trouble. That his will ultimately have been of their own doing will be seen as having been foretold in Detroit and Maryland

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