Saturday, November 26, 2016

Nothing Surer;Green Party Will Be Significant Force/Disaster For Dem's

Update; As inferred in the original post below the Green movement world-wide is on an inexorable rising path. This is further confirmed by the election of a Green candidate as president of Austria;

"Who is Austria's new president, Alexander van der Bellen?" LINK

Original article;

There is absolutely no reason to doubt that Jill Stein's Green Party will be a significant force in American political life at the local, state and presidential level. In point of fact is already is at the national level. Stein's vote totals in Michigan and Wisconsin added to Clinton's would have swung both states to Clinton;

"It is probably a safe bet that none of Jill Stein's voters really care much for Donald Trump. Most likely if we had an 
instant runoff voting so that voters can express their first choice system in which voters can mark a first, second, third, etc. choice, all of them would have put down Hillary Clinton as their second choice. Would it have mattered? Actually, it would have. If the Stein voters had all held their collective noses and voted for Clinton, she would have won Michigan by 0.8% and Wisconsin by 0.1%. That would have changed the Electoral College from Clinton 232 vs. Trump 306 to Clinton 258 vs. Trump 280."

First the statistics;

Presidential election of 2012 Green Party candidate Jill Stein 469,627 votes  0.36% nationwide

Presidential election of 2016  Green Party candidate Jill Stein 1,395,182 votes 1.04%  nationwide
Note; Stein was not even on the ballot in 6 states

Included in Stein's results were (rounded)  246k California/ 100k New York/ 71k Texas 
70k Illinois/ 64k Florida

Stein garnered over 2% of the vote in three states 2.9% Hawaii/ 2.5% Oregon/ 2.0% Vermont

Stein's vote was the party's best by far with the exception of the exceptional year 2000 with an exceptionally high profile candidate in Ralph Nader. 

 As the Democratic Party continues to stick with Pelosi and Schumer in the top leadership positions
and the leftist mood among rank and file gains ascendancy, the leftward swing inside the party will grow.

The fissure could come as early as the 2018 midterm elections. If the Trump administration has even a modicum of economic success the Dem's would be facing possible further senate losses given they have so many vulnerable seats in play.

At that point the choice for the left rank and file will be to try and take over the party with challenges to senior leaders or, more likely, to cast about for an alternative that suits their agenda.

Ron Johnson, the Libertarian leader advised he will not run again and it seems unlikely that anyone else has the profile to build on his 2016 votes. At that point the Greens become the obvious vehicle for Johnson's substantial vote a lot of which must surely have been leftist protest votes which could easily move to the Greens.

Gary Johnson 4,416,589 3.29%  His own state of New Mexico counted for 74,544 votes.

Jill Green offered Bernie Sanders the presidential candidate slot and the message was very clear.
Green doesn't need Sanders now but can use that outreach at what may be a critical time to offer her party as a vehicle for disaffected Dem's. 

Stein has shown her self to be a savvy politician with her quixotic "recount challenge" for the key rust belt states which raised millions of dollars almost overnight while further raising her profile. It was noticeable that the radical leftist Unite Blue faction was vigorously giving their support to Stein's ploy.

If this scenario plays out the danger for the Democratic party is manifest and massive. The Dem's simply can't afford to have a permanent 4%, at a minimum, bled off their support from the left. If the Greens and the Libertarian remnant get anywhere near 10% in 2020 then states like Oregon, Maine and Virginia would be in play for the GOP and New Hampshire/Colorado would be a lock to be added to the rust belt states and Florida.

The Green Party's as a political movement have been, since the 1990's, an unstoppable force as an opposition party or coalition opposition worldwide and in some cases as actual party's of government. 

Even given America's difficult to break two party monopoly the Greens are poised to commence their ascent. They will never have the presidency but they will be a force and initially would pose a near mortal danger to the Democratic Party until some sort of fusion, as happened with William Jennings Bryan and the Dem/Populist merger eventuates. 

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