Thursday, June 27, 2013

Pro-Abortion Wendy Davis 2.2% Margin Vulnerable To Pro-Life Opponent With Palin/Cruz Support

Pro-abortion Texas State Senator Democrat Wendy Davis whose filibuster so heartened the leftist mob who helped her succeed in stopping the proposed Texas legislation on restricting abortion may find her new found fame fleeting.

Governor Perry has called the legislature back into session on July 1st and no doubt Davis will have another go and receive leftist media kudos. This time the Republicans will have their act together and there will be plenty of time for Davis to do her spiel for death and give up. Then the pro-life legislation will be enacted immediately, and who knows how many people will subsequently be alive to cast their first ballot and raise their own families over the next couple of decades?

Huffington Post reported  LINK on why Davis may have a brief career given the Supreme Court's ruling on states rights to change electoral boundaries without referring to Congress (Section 5) as they had to previously:

"Texas state Sen. Wendy Davis (D), who captivated the country (SIC) with her attempted 13-hour filibuster of a sweeping anti-abortion bill, likely would have lost her seat in 2012 to redistricting if not for the Voting Rights Act that was gutted Tuesday by the U.S. Supreme Court.

Davis and the U.S. Justice Department won the case in August 2012, a few months before elections, and Texas was forced to drop its redistricting plan. Davis was narrowly reelected to her state Senate seat in November.

The future of Davis' Senate district is unclear now that the Supreme Court has removed the legislature's biggest obstacle to redistricting.

“With today’s decision, the state’s voter ID law will take effect immediately," Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott said in a statement on Tuesday. "Redistricting maps passed by the Legislature may also take effect without approval from the federal government.”
It is not clear at this point if the redistricting map  for 2012which was challenged successfully by Davis under Section 5 can be reinstated now that Section 5 has been ruled unconstitutional. If it can't Davis may be "safe" i.e. within her recurrent favorable boundaries until the next 10 year census allows for redistribution.

What is clear is that the Texas voter ID act which was previously unconstitutional will "go into immediate effect" which may have bearing on Davis's election chances. 

Well, here’s a current condition: the ink was barely dry on the Supreme Court’s decision in Shelby County v. Holder when Attorney General Greg Abbott of Texas announced that his state’s voter-ID law, blocked by a federal court last summer, “will take effect immediately.” LINK
Here is result of Davis's LINK electoral run in 2012. She had the benefit of a strong minority composition in her electorate, and the benefit of the turnout associated with a presidential run, especially given the attraction for Hispanics and Blacks that President Obama represented.
That turnout effect may well be missing in 2014, and if the state chooses to adjust her electorate to make it more equitable in respect of population then Davis may find herself with a major challenge. If the Tea Party (Supporting Koni Burton) and Catholic vote gets behind her opponent, and especially if the Palin/Cruz forces do, the result may not be to Davis and her abortion supporters liking. A margin of 2.2% may be a target for the pro-life forces to aim long and hard at.

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