Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Post 2nd Debate Aggregate Polls;Despite Media Hysteria Trump 20 Points Ahead

Update 2:

Chris Cillizza's article at Washington Post

 "Trump's act is starting to wear thin"

The act is his constant denigrating of Donald Trump for leftist Washington Post-he even admits he got in wrong in the past and blithely continues on the same path-paymasters must be satisfied I guess.
Cillizza uses the CNN POLL which has Trump still in the lead but down 8 points. What he doesn't say is that the poll has been the subject of many raised eyebrows because of its incredibly low number of people polled and wide margin of error.


He also totally ignores the 5 other polls which have come out since the second debate all of which have Trump in a significant lead at an average of 32%. See the facts below.

Meanwhile Megyn Kelly at Fox continues to use the CNN poll exclusivity to bash Trump whilst dismissing all the others as "computer polls and thus invalid." No less a guru than leftist Nate Silver accepts computer polls and only the most blinkered would say that 5 polls in a row are all wrong

Update1 ; New Morning Consult Poll; Has Fiorina's decline commenced already? Trump 20 points ahead holds above 30% from previous MC poll whilst Fiorina drops from 10% to 6%


Just as after the first debate the Trump hating media-which is 95% and the GOP Establishment went into the dance of frenzy.  "Trump is done", Trump has "peaked" and (insert name) "      " will now overtake him.

Bill Kristol wins the ever hopeful award for stating, for the 10th time! that "Trump has peaked" but Karl Rove is a runner up (on 'Fox on Sunday' 9/10) with 'Trumped peaked 2 weeks ago now is in decline and starting to fade'.  As a matter of fact Trump is now higher in the RCP aggregate then he was two weeks ago

Washington Post's Charles Lane then crowned not Fiorina, but Rubio as the eventual "Establishment" Trump killer.'

All this is very sad as is the current meme that  "although Trump is in the lead it is early days and come (unspecified) date surely the not'outsider' candidates will take over. Politico's Rick Wilson took this to its ultimate in elitist condescension;
"The (Trump) circus is nearly over-don't be the last clown out of the tent"

What is also so very sad about this is the blatant promoting of whomever the establishment and their media lap dogs think will bring Trump down (only to dump them of course if they ever succeeded with this silly plan.) 

Perry and now Walker have bit the dust and the main "weapon" Dr. Carson seems to be in a descent. The Establishment pushed Carson after the first debate, but since his traction has slowed they launched a blatant and sorrowful spectacle of making Carly Fiorina their "Queen for a day'. Has anyone ever had such a massive media push for no discernible reason?

As with the first debate the media seized on a immediate post debate poll which gave Fiorina a ridiculous bump and pretended she was the new anti-Trump major force. A "snap poll" of new Hampshire from a polling outfit nobody has heard of  "Voter Gravity touchtone poll" had "Warrior Princess" Fiorina leading Trump at 22% to 18%.

Then Gravis Marketing had Fiorina tied with Trump on 9/17 nationwide at 22% each with Fiorina going from 2.7% ! 

After the media feasted on this nonsense a degree of sanity returned, much to their chagrin, as the later polls appeared. Viewing aggregate average across these five polls we find

Trump 32%     Carson 13.2%     Fiorina 9.4%

Thus Trump is actually above his highest point in the (much more limited Real Clear Politics aggregate



Morning Consult;        Trump (Blue) 36%   Carson (Yellow) 12%   Fiorina (Blue) 10%        

Zogby at Forbes;

"Real estate mogul Trump has widened his lead to 20 points in a brand new Zogby Analytics poll taken after the second Republican presidential debate. The new poll of 405 likely Republican primary/caucus voters nationwide with a margin of sampling error of +/- 5.0 percentage points, conducted September 18-19, shows Mr. Trump with 33% (up 2 points from his pre-debate 31%). In second place is neurosurgeon Dr. Ben Carson who actually dropped 3 points to 13%. Former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina,  7%"

 Reuters Ipsos 5 day tracking  poll to September 18th