Wednesday, September 23, 2015

Updated:Trump's Magnificent Poll Day One In The Eye For Cillizza Rove And Huffington

After the obligatory "after the debate Trump is on the decline"  comments from the likes of variously Karl Rove,  Megyn Kelly Arianna Huffington and the hapless Washington Post's Chris Cillizza, Donald Trump does what he usually does-goes up in the polls.

Five out of six polls which included post debate polling had Trump on an average of 32% which is higher than his Real Clear Politics aggregate. These were all summarily dismissed by Megyn Kelly, who seems Trump obsessed as being"not valid because they have an online component". 

As I discussed in the link above no less than the polling guru Nate Silver of 538dotcom advised in the New York Times that these are absolutely valid in his aggregation analysis.

Non-internet polls have varied between a 3 point drop in Quinnipiac, a rise in Fox, and no change in Bloomberg. These are remarkable results given the massive media hate campaign run against Trump.
New New Hampshire poll

"Trump is now seen as both the candidate most likely to win the New Hampshire primary early next year -- with 40% saying so, up from 25% in July -- and as the one with the best chance to win next November's general election, as 27% say he's best positioned to carry the electoral college."
Trump leads with 26% support among those who say they plan to vote in the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary, about the same as in a July WMUR/UNH poll in the state. Second place now goes to businesswoman Carly Fiorina with 16%, third to Florida Sen. Marco Rubio with 9% and fourth to retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson with 8%. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who held second place in the July poll, stands at 7% now, and the candidate who previously held third place, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, has dropped out of the race entirely.

A newly posted poll for Oklahama gives Trump a massive above 30% result which is in line with so many other state and national polls:

"The latest quarterly poll from  SoonerPoll,Oklahoma’s only non-partisan polling firm, has Donald Trump leading in the state with just under one-third of the Republican primary vote at 30.8 percent."

*********************************************************** Now, subsequent to these previous 6 polls linked above we have  a poll in Florida which shows Trump not only leading but, incredibly having a higher poll number than the former governor and the sitting senator messrs. Bush and Rubio-COMBINED.Trump also leads Hillary Clinton in this vital state which is of major significance.

I'n the Republican sample, which has a 5.2 percent margin of error, Trump leads with 31.5 percent, followed by Rubio at 19.2 percent, Bush at 11.3 percent, Carson at 10.3 percent and Fiorina at 8.3 percent.
Part-time Palm Beacher Donald Trump continues to lead the Republican presidential field in Florida and Sen.Marco Rubio has moved ahead of former Gov. Jeb Bush into second place in a Florida Atlantic University poll conducted after last week’s GOP debate.
Trump gets 45.9 percent to 44.5 percent for Clinton — essentially  a tie given the poll’s 3.4 percent margin of error.
FAU’s Business and Economics Polling Initiative surveyed 801 likely voters Thursday through Sunday — immediately after last Wednesday’s GOP debate. "

Reuters Ipsos  5 day tracking poll post 2nd debate has Trump at 30% amongst GOP voters


Then the new nationwide Fox poll (no lovers of Trump there) have him not only in the lead but actually having increased his standing from before the debate. And he is just outside the margin of error in head to head with Hillary Clinton 46% to 42%.This is not an online poll so Megyn Kelly is in some difficulty

The respected Quinnipiac Poll has Trump at 25%-also above the touted CNN poll

The Bloomberg Poll with it's very high (5%) margin of error has Trump still leading and-unchanged from their previous poll at 21%


From Breitbart

A post-debate poll from Citizens United — provided exclusively to Breitbart News — finds that GOP frontrunner Donald Trump remains the clear favorite in the field, with almost 31 percent of the vote.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)
 gets 18.5 percent, Dr. Ben Carson earns 17.4 percent, and former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina takes 11.3 percent. Combined, that’s 78 percent for the four consummate political outsiders in the race. Washington establishment candidates, including
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)
 and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, trail badly.

“Seventy eight percent of our respondents have with their vote voiced their frustration with the Washington establishment, and have cast their ballot with outsiders,” Citizens United president Dave Bossie told Breitbart News. “For the other dozen candidates to split up the other 20 plus percent is very stunning. Then if you look at the first and second choice, you have Donald Trump and Ted Cruz in a virtual tie.”
The poll of Citizens United members, over several days ending Wednesday, surveyed 4,913 of the group’s members nationwide online.
“I’m pleasantly surprised with over 4,900 respond