Saturday, September 17, 2016

Hillary's Crucial Mistake; Not Having Warren or Sanders as VP?


Can Clinton Win the Kids?

Millennials really don't like Hillary Clinton. Many of them say she is a corporate stooge and (almost) as bad as Donald Trump. If they stay home on Election Day, or vote for Jill Stein or Gary Johnson, she has a very big problem. Two recent polls show that 30% of voters under thirty plan to vote for either Johnson or Stein. The ones who love Sanders' proposal for a $15/hr minimum wage would probably be quite surprised to learn that Libertarians want to repeal the minimum wage law and let the free market determine what people are paid, not the government.
So, how is the 68-year-old Clinton trying to win the kids back? She is sending in their favorites, the 67-year-old Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and the 74-year-old Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT). The duo are being sent on a tour of college campuses in Ohio to pitch Clinton's plan of making community college free and providing scholarships for needy students so no one graduates with debt. She doesn't want to have tuition at state schools be zero, because she thinks that Donald Trump's kids ought to be paying their own way.

The nationwide polls have tightened from the Democratic Convention mass hubris (some say hysteria) where the pundits anointed Hillary and assigned Trump to the losers lowest circle of Hell.

Such idiocy seems remarkable as even the most casual follower of presidential election is aware of the "convention bounce effect but the media is incorrigible both in their Clinton support and their disdain for the intelligence of the voting public.

The truth is that, as of this writing Trump is within two points in the head to head polling, and in the ascendancy, but, more importantly, he has passed Clinton in the Electoral College based on the most recent state polls.

All of this polling may have a major distortion the "enthusiasm effect" which most recently manifested itself in the "Brexit" election. In the U.K. referendum the pollsters had "Remain" winning and winning in part through the poll support of young voters. 

One politician commented "anyone who relies on the turnout of young voters is a dead man" and he was correct, not only for Brexit but for the previous U.K. general election.

Young voters, when they are enthused and turn that enthusiasm into showing up at the polling booth can make a huge, winning difference as President Obama's elections proved. 

It seems clear that millennials have little love and even less enthusiasm for Hillary. If the USC/LATimes tracking poll and even worse omen for Clinton is Trump actually leading her at his highest level among the 18-24 age group demographic;

If her polling support is based in any large part on these same people showing up Trump may win in an Electoral College landslide.

There can be little doubt that if the legion of Sanders supporters could have had their enthusiasm for him transferred to Hillary the votes which appear to be going to Johnson and Stein would be, perhaps in near entirely, be hers and consequently an easy run to election. 

Sanders, and probably only slightly less, Senator Warren as her VP running mate would have seen an entirely different campaign with mass meetings, feet on the ground and mass enthusiasm.

Would either Sanders or Warren have accepted the VP slot? there is no way of knowing but if Clinton had pressed the matter hard and rallied Sanders or Warren's supporters to pressure them they may have succumbed. 

Instead Clinton went for a staid "safe pair of hands" with Kaine which appears to have brought her nothing but just may have cost her the election. 

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