Saturday, September 17, 2016

Senate Races; Hidden Harbinger of A Trump Landslide?

Recent state polls in the crucial, for Trump, "Non-Romney states' i.e. those competitive states Trump needs to win to ensure an Electoral College victory give him just enough  to pass the required 270 mark.

However only in some states is Trump ahead of Clinton in the aggregate of polls which is the best guarantee, if there be such a thing, of his winning the state. In the other states where he is ahead it is in a very recent poll and then by a small margin, usually inside the margin of error.

Normally pundits talk about a "coattail" effect" i.e. a popular presidential candidate assisting down ballot candidates to get over the finish line in the polling booth. 2016 appears to be standing that historical truth on its head.

Judging by almost all polls both Trump and Clinton have "unfavorables' of unique and historic proportions.Trump can take some solace perhaps in that this are actually improving whilst Hillary's worsen. 

This and the perhaps unexpected strength of Republican senate candidates and the "enthusiasm gap" may actually improve Trumps chances of winning margins in the key states.

Here is how Republican senate candidates are faring compared to Trump's lead margins (or deficits)

North Carolina Burr +6        Trump + 3
Iowa Grassley + 17              Trump +8
Ohio Portman + 21              Trump +5
Georgia Isakson + 16           Trump +6
Florida Rubio + 11               Trump +3
Nevada Heck +3                  Trump +2
Arizona McCain +19            Trump +4
New Hampshire Ayotte + 8   Trump -2
Pennsylvania Toomey +1      Trump -5

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