Thursday, September 29, 2016

The Debate;Sound And Fury Signifying-No Change?Two Days Of Polls Show Slight Move To Trump

For all the massive media beat-up the huge viewing audience and the post debate pontification, mostly by the pro-Hillary media who determined, based o one grossly distorted CNN poll, that Hillary "won" the quality polls show just a slight uptick for Trump.

It may well be that people have for the most part determined who they will support and nothing, short of Hillary having keeled over or Trump having blown his top, would have changed things as they stood prior to the debate.

Certainly the partisans voiced their opinions that their manor woman wiped the floor with the other but that has no bearing on the wider reality.

The first USC/LATimes showed about a half point uptick for Trump which put him around +4 where he has been hovering for weeks with his long term average about +2.2. Day two saw Trump stay at his same percentage as day one with Clinton "gaining" 0.3 of a point.

the poll by the Dem leaning firm PPP Polling has Clinton at +4 which i actually one point lower than the +5 she was weeks ago. A couple of post debate state polls from Michigan and Missouri showed small movement to Trump and one from Louisiana showed movement to Clinton but nothing outside the usual poll ups and downs.

There were some larger shifts but they were from polls from obscure outfits or ones that Real Clear Politics doesn't recognize so can be discounted.

Unless subsequent polling from reputable firms shows substantial movement for either candidate over the next few days the debate will have proven to be a wash in respect of any"game changer" drama and things will be as they were before with the battle in the few key marginal states determining who will be elected in November.

This is the Post debate USC/LaTimes graph.

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