Saturday, September 17, 2016

Peak Trump?Tracking Polls Show +4 Aggregate High Top-Where To from Here?

Update September 20th; I asked 'where to from here" after the tracking polls showed a substantial rise for Trump post 9/11 "pneumonia & deplorables" the answer is, so far, a slow decline in Trump's aggregate lead but not the quick return to the norm of Trump and Clinton being 1-2 points apart and changing lead from time to time.

This is positive for Trump as if he can sustain an aggregate lead he will be well placed for the more important state polls to catch up to this "new normal" if that is what it is.

The picture is not entirely clear as UPI/C is lagging even further behind than normal. Give UPI/C's Clinton bent it is reasonable to expect they will have her 1-2 points ahead by their 9/20 poll but that will not drop the aggregate of the three polls below around +3 for Trump.

Although Trump peaked in the aggregate on 9/14 PPD and USC/LATimes are merging into the same at around +5  with his aggregate of the two polls running from +5.2 to +6.1. If Trump holds at that level it looks very good for him


The three tracking polls showed Trump's sharp rise post Hillary's "deplorables/9/11 "pneumonia" terrible media optics commenced on 9/12 as would be expected.

For the first time Trump led Clinton in all three polls, including a sharp jump in the UPI/C poll which has been the friendliest to Clinton. Trump's aggregate (in green) of 3.1 on the 12th was his highest since these polls commenced.

Trump reached +4 in the aggregate on the 14th and may exceed that for the 15th once UPI/C catches up (they run a day behind the other polls) but +4 to say +5 might be Trump's highest aggregate in this current cycle.

These tracking polls always lead the "one off" polls. Real Clear Politics aggregate average also shows a striking shift to Trump in the last week but just not enough to give him a lead-he is behind by 1 point. 

The state polls lag even further behind but there too, where the left was crowing about a "Hillary electoral College landslide" weeks ago Trump can be shown to have actually not only passed Clinton but to have enough Electoral College votes to be elected president.

But where to from here? UPI/C has clearly dropped substantially but not quite yet enough to give Hillary her lead again ( Trump from +3.2 to +1.0) Trump's best pollster USC/LATimes has ticked down  0.2 and Clinton up 0.2 since yesterday. 

These next few day will show, fascinatingly, whether Trump in an aggregate lead of around three points is the new norm, or the race will move back to where it has been since Hillary's post DNC euphoria faded-with both fluctuating within a point or so.

If Trump can sustain this current margin, more or less, then he stands to be considered the front-runner in the popular vote and if the state votes confirm it then he will be heavily favored to be president

No comments :

Post a Comment