Sunday, September 25, 2016

Outer Limits Of Trump Electoral College Blowout Takes Shape

Head to head polls, which lag the tracking polls are showing the Trump/Clinton race at a near tie while the tracking polls consistently have Trump ahead in the aggregate for 22 straight days.

The state polls which trail both the head to head and the tracking polls have had Trump close an enormous gap in the Electoral college, which is what counts in the end, to the point where he is one state from being above the 270 votes required to be elected. 

If current polling trends continue, where Trump leads in a number of the key contested states in the aggregate i.e Florida, Ohio, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona and one CD district in Maine, and leads in current polls in North Carolina, then the prospect of a Trump blow-out comes into view for the first time. 

Here is the Real Clear Politics analysis of the electoral College situation as of today based on current latest polling which shows a Clinton 272 to Trump 266 split (270 being the winning number) and again it only takes one further state to fall into Trump's column for him to win.

New polling from Pennsylvania puts Trump within two of Clinton and he is within or just outside the margin of error (MOE) in Wisconsin, Colorado (where he leads in one poll) and Michigan in some older polls. 

If these four states move into Trump's column his realistic Electoral College number would be a massive 323 to 215 margin. 

New Hampshire is currently significantly outside the MOE but if Trump's trending accelerates it is conceivable that the states 4 votes as well as two further from Maine (Clinton would win the states 4th vote) would stretch Trump's margin to 327 to 211 almost equal to President Obama's 332 to 206 against Romney in 2012.

No comments :

Post a Comment