Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Gulf War Didn't Re-elect Bush. Bin Laden No Guarantee For Obama Re-election.

At the end of the “Operation Desert Storm” the First Gulf War in February 1991 President G.H. W. Bush had an approval rating of 89%. Such was high standing with the American people, that leading Democratic Party personalities, who had been widely mentioned as possible presidential candidates in 1992, such as Mario Cuomo and Al Gore, both declined to run.

If we substitute Obama for Bush and Democrat for republican in Barbara Walters statement on “The View” that “I would hate to be a Republican running against Obama” and Joy Behar’s comment that America should “Skip the next election” an approximate feeling can be found of the exhilaration of the moment which destroys common sense-even amongst such an ancient and venerable commentator as Barbara Walters. Behar should of course be disregarded at all times.

From the advantage point of looking at the 2012 election in the immediate aftermath of the successful elimination of Bin Laden Walters comment can be understood, but of course not justified.
If this event had happened say in October of 2012 it very well could have been a determining factor in a close election.

If however we take history as a guide, and further allow for the considerable time period before the next election then there is no justification whatsoever for Walters/Behar’s comments which do nothing except to further place them to the left on the political spectrum and, especially in Behar’s case to show how the format of “The View” scrambles brains.

The national euphoria following President Bush declaring a cease fire on February 28th 1991 following the liberation of Kuwait and the destruction of most of Hussein’s armed forces dwarfs that
subsequent to the elimination of Bin Laden. Those heady days made heroes of “Stormin Norman", Colin Powell and elevated President Bush to the level of the Mount Rushmore pantheon.

Then it was all downhill for President Bush. The economy went into recession, splits appeared in the GOP ranks, a formidable third party candidate ran and a formerly unknown governor of a small southern state caught fire in an explosive campaign.

From President Bush having a small lead in the polls subsequent to the Republican convention the Democratic Party nominee Bill Clinton came out of their convent ion with “the biggest bounce on history” from 25% to 55% support with Bush on 31%. President Bush went on to record a dismal 37.5% of the popular vote in the November election.

As the Clinton campaign said “it’s the economy stupid.” The 75% of polled voters who on election day said that they thought the economy was “bad or fairly bad” agreed with Clinton and determined the outcome-irrespective of the genuine heroics in foreign policy.

Except for the most unusual of circumstances, the Civil War/WW2, it is the voters’ wallets which mostly determine the election outcome. With the death of Bin Laden nothing has changed in that regards and unless the economy picks up substantially by late 2012 there is absolutely no reason why the GOP can’t win.









No comments :