Wednesday, June 10, 2015

Politico's Distorted Report On Jewish Support For Hillary-It's In Huge Decline

Politico's Nick Gass has an article up "J Street Poll Jewish American favors Hillary Over Jeb

"American Jewish voters have a clear favorite between Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton and likely Republican candidate Jeb Bush, according to a new national survey.
According to a poll commissioned by the left-leaning J Street Group, Clinton beats Bush in a hypothetical matchup by a count of 68 percent to 30 percent, with 2 percent undecided.

Not only, as Gass admits, is this a special commissioned poll "by left-leaning J Street group" but it leaves out entirely the historic context and what that might portend for 2016.

As can be seen by the historic record Hillary's 68% support from Jewish American voters represents a further, albeit small, decline from President Obama's substantial 9 point decline in support from that same group from 2008 to 2012. It also represents a dramatic decline from President Clinton's massive 80% support in 1992-a substantial 15%  decline from Bill to Hillary.

The Jewish community of voters is, at long last, about 70 years from the start of the Roosevelt coalition where in 1944 90% voted for FDR, moving away from its economic, ultra-liberal and at core emotional attachment to the Democratic Party. 

Whilst still behind in the 2012 election by an obviously substantial 69% to 30% margin this 39 point difference is a huge improvement on the 60 point gap registered just twelve years ago. As can be seen by the analysis from the 2012 election Jewish voters moved by 9 points from President Obama whose 78 % in 2008 to 69% in 2012 was the largest drop of any recorded movement of faith based voters in the election.

Crosstabs of the religious vote in the 2012 presidential election.

There are a number of reason for this of course and the significance in respect of numbers of voters is low compared to movements in e.g. the Hispanic voters choices as the latter make up a much larger and growing volume of potential voters. However, the fact that Jews are included amongst the higher income and educated groups, and especially in the media/Hollywood, any movement to the right is significant

This influence was set out by Caroline Glick, writing in The Jerusalem Post issued a stern warning about the influence of radical Jewish socialists in America in her article "Defeating The Jewish Alinskyites." 

President Obama's perceived lukewarm support of Israel would have some effect on Jewish voting preferences and for people with an understanding of economic mechanisms and the rational approach to economics a conservative program might, especially subsequent to the economic crisis, prove more attractive than a program of massive  spending.

But perhaps the major move towards the right by the Jewish community is one of the passing of a generation I posted an article, "Palin Is The Media Liberal Jew's Mistaken Golem And Primal Scream Therapy"  on why the Jews are, in the main, leftists, and if they can be weaned from "tales learned at granddad's knee."

 Michael Walzer at the Jewish focused magazine 'The Tablet" in his article "The End Of The Jewish Left" seems to think so, but I am not so sanguine. As long as Jews  of influence like Schoenkopf at the far left "Wonkette " site and others of similar ilk pump out their radical leftism into calcified older minds, and underdeveloped young minds, the battle will be challenging.

It would seem that the new generation whose memories of great-grandparents struggles is appreciated but seen as having little or no relevance to their lives today will be a major source of intellectual, financial and spiritual support for the new conservative Republican Party. 

Perhaps too the image of a Star of David wearing Sarah Palin might also be an inspiration and inducement for them to join up to progressive conservatism.

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