Thursday, June 11, 2015

The M.Joseph Sheppard Post Report 06/11/15;Cruz In Decline-Rubio On Rise? (The Truth)+Much More

Has Senator Cruz reached his support ceiling? Is he in decline?

Senator Ted Cruz is in a serious decline in the New Hampshire GOP primary race dropped from 10% to 4% in, and in Ohio poll today is way back on 5% http://www.realclearpolitics.c..
Interestingly, most of the GOP polled are within 1-3 points of Hillary in Ohio with Rubio tied and Rand and Kasich actually leading her-Kasich by 7 in this vital state. Nationwide he has been in decline since April

As far as the objection that "it's just polls" is concerned, I think it can be accepted that the poll of polls mechanism covers the distortions-certainly that has been proven beyond doubt with the aggregate of polls by state. The Real Clear Politics aggregate has Cruz not moving from what appears to be his bedrock of support of 8%. His highest aggregate poll was 12.3% at the peak of interest in him and his lowest was 4%

It could be accepted that Kasich leads Hillary in Ohio as popular "favorite son" candidate, however It is a tried and true formula to have a Governor of Ohio run for the obvious reason no Republican has won the presidency without the state. Logically a Kasich/Rubio or Kasich/Jeb ticket has a lot to commend itself viewed from a "we want to win no matter who our candidate is" perspective.

If either were the ticket, and Ohio and Florida were won because of it then the GOP still has to win Virginia and Colorado-it is a really challenging task and will be until the next census increases the Electoral College further and reduces the safe Democratic states EC totals.

Speaking of Kasich one has to be a bit worried about his judgement in one aspect at least. He is reported to have hired this man, Fred Davis,  (unkindly called "Phil Spector, with one of his "Tuesday for ECT TREATment" wigs!) for his campaign:

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Davis worked on the Christen O'Donnell and Carly Fiorina campaigns for who he produced, it is advised, respectively "I am not a witch" and "Demon sheep". 

It's a worry.

Mataconis At It Again

This man Doug Mataconis:
Forgetting Sarah Palin #MakeAMovieLessRomantic"

Is a real odd character. He appears to possess a modicum of intelligence, being a lawyer and having a blog that appears to be well known in some circles 'Beyond The Beltway' Any yet for some unfathomable reason he seems to be possesed of Palin Derangement Syndrome in extremis.

He writes her off, yet continues to Tweet about her. He attends CPAC yet writes he will "be at the bar" rather than listen to her address. Mataconis is absolute proof of a genuine affliction in normally sensible people-especially on the left (Mataconis haunts the fringes of the libertarian movement it appears.)

Palin is not running for anything (at least at the moment), has not held office since 2009, is 'irrelevant" according to these sort of people (we can discount the genuinely mad denizens of "Wonkette and "Immoral Minority") and is Mataconis with withering sarcasm delivered at a figure who can do him, nor his cause, any harm whatsoever. It's all so very very strange and terribly sad.

The Execrable Wonkette Must be Destroyed

Speaking of the genuinely bonkers Wonkette and just asking,with question marks, so you can decide if their main attack dog Kaili Joy Gray  is on drugs? Drugs? maybe! We hear the execrable blog is a great place for scoring meth-maybe those drugs have eated (sic) up itsy bits of Kaili's brain?

The sites execrable editor, one Rebecca Schoenkopf, is grifting the sites following of layabouts and perverts© suckers for $22 "we need the money" (booze/cigs?) for this "Sanders 2016 T/s) drek. It's all so very very sad
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Politico, bowing to their masters in J Street Group. 

actually give credence to a poll commissioned by those people. The poll advises that Hillary Clinton is doing outstandingly well with Jewish voters compared to Jeb Bush. But it leaves out entirely the historic context and what that might portend for 2016.

As can be seen by the historic record, Hillary's 68% support from Jewish American voters represents a further, albeit small, decline from President Obama's substantial 9 point decline in support from that same group from 2008 to 2012. It also represents a dramatic decline from President Clinton's
massive 80% support in 1992-a substantial 15%  decline from Bill to Hillary.

I expanded on the historic context and linked to the voting figures in This Post.  One thing is certain, as this illustrates, that the rise of the social media/internet has utterly destroyed the power of the print media to camouflage and distort and get away with it.

Marco Rubio (Once again) 24/7

The word has clearly gone out to Dem operatives/paid Twitter "commentator'/Salon/NYT that Rubio is the one to attack

The New York Times not satisfied with Mrs. Rubio's parking tickets and is now hitting on Marco's personal finances-again this shows who they currently fear.

There's a real LOL comment "It may be said the NYT did not do this with Obama but that doesn't mean it should ignore Rubio-we don't want an inexperienced person as president"

However, the GOP Establishment's Rubio bandwagon continues apace-although any effect on the voters is not yet reflected in the aggregate polls. In contrast to the New York Times utterly pathetic attempt to do "shock horror" hit pieces, which flopped terribly and are a sigh that the left is worried by him We saw this hagiography (Please! Make it stop)

"Marco Rubio Is You, America! - David Harsanyi, The Federalist."

We've seen this all before. Rubio hit the heights of 14.3 aggregate support then the depths of 4.8%% and seems to have settled, over time within that band at around 10% where he is actually in decline. He is however showing strength where it may count most of all initially in the Iowa/New Hampshire and Ohio polls although he doesn't lead in any of them

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