Wednesday, August 5, 2015

UPDATE;Sanders Leads In N.H."If Biden Enters the Race Sanders Would Win New Hampshire

Updated; A new Boston Herald poll has Sanders out in front in New Hampshire for the first time and, significantly, outside the polls margin of error at 44/37.

Additionally, as I pointed out in the original item Biden, without being a declared candidate has moved to 9% which is obviously coming from Hillary.

As things stand, even before any further revelations about Hillary's home server I reiterate that it Biden enters Hillary is toast. Most likely in New Hampshire and probably for the nomination.

As Hillary Clinton's  poll ratings, especially her unfavorables head into the deepest south where even president Obama didn't dwell at the worst moments of his presidency, it is obvious that worried Dem's are beating the drums for Joe Biden to enter.

Even Blind Bob could see the orchestrated litany if paeans to Biden that have surfaced in droves in the last week. I won't reference them as they are everywhere, but you know the drill "Uncle Joe's malapropisms are endearing and of no consequence" and etc etc. The important aspect is what effect might his entry have on the Dem's race?

The first place to look in New Hampshire which is always a vital state, it of course was the one that kept Hillary in the 2008 race after the pundits had written her off after her shock defeat in Iowa to Senator Obama. 

The news is not good for Hillary. Senator Sanders is almost at the margin of error behind Hillary at 
-6 points. Without being an official candidate Biden has 5 % and if he entered he would, surely, start to gain support especially with retail campaigning and an acquiescent media.

Where would Biden's support come from? There is limited panning for gold from among O'Malley and Webb's supporters and it would seem unlikely that those currently enamored with Sanders anti-Establishment leftism would rush en-mass, if at all, to Biden. If as seems likely, blatantly obvious in fact, Biden entered he would pull support from Clinton. How much support? It really doesn't have to be much, if Biden took only 10% from Hillary then Sanders woudl be in first place.

Could Biden go from 5% to 37%? that seems highly unlikely as long as Hillary and Bernie are in the race. If this scenario in New Hampshire starts to play out there is no reason it couldn't be repeated across the Dem primaries with Sanders picking up pluralities in state after state.

 If he and Biden get substantial numbers of delegates then that rare beast, a convention where no candidate has the numbers to be nominated would hove into view.

Then if neither Biden of Clinton budge with neither one willing to give his or her delegates to the other then Sanders would be the kingmaker. He could then drive the party to the far left which would give the GOP the greatest ammunition in having to fight against a party, led by an septuagenarian representing the Establishment and Obama's third term, whilst running on a far left platform.

To appease the left even further a Biden/Warren or a Clinton/Warren ticket on a Sanders devised platform if it eventuated would be manna from heaven for the GOP.