Thursday, May 26, 2016

Massive Move To Trump,Huge Hillary Fall In Formerly Safe And Marginal Democratic States

As Donald Trump moves into a virtual tie or lead, well within the margin of error, in head to head polling against Hillary Clinton the state polls, which usually lag the nationwide polls are starting to move to him as well.

North Carolina is a good example;

Trump's 4 point lead is a striking 6 point turnaround from March and the obvious conclusion is that the trendline to Trump points to a substantial improvement in North Carolina for Trump over what Romney got, and if that is translated into the entire country then Florida/Ohio/Virginia and even Pennsylvania are in play for Trump."

North Carolina was a marginal Romney win but what is unique in this polling season is the massive, there is no other word for it, drop in Hillary's vote and/or a concomitant rise in Trump's in Democratic strongholds.

In two polls for California in May (which don't entirely capture the full move to Trump via Republican consolidation) Hillary leads by either 12 or 14 points.

In 2012 President Obama won California by a massive 23 points. Trump is equaling Romney (and again this does nto reflect the full force of the movmeent to him yet) but Hillary has dropped between 8 and 11 points.

This is mirrored in New Jersey where the 2012 result was Obama 58% Romney 40% a 13 point decline for Hillary via Quinnipiac.

A tie in Virginia at 38% each (2012 Obama by 4 points. In crucial Ohio the RCP average is Hillary by 1.4 points (2012 Obama by 3 points)
and in Pennsylvania Clinton by 1 via Qinnipiac (2012 Obama by 5.5 points).

May is not predictive of November necessarily, especially in nationwide head to head polls ask President Dukakis, however such massive drop in Clinton's polling in safe and marginal Dem states must be a concern for the DNC.

Via the current state by state analysis has Trump leading in the Electoral College-which is all that matters in November.