Tuesday, May 3, 2016

Once Again Iowa Decided Who Would NOT Be The GOP Nominee

Charles Hurt at The Washington Times got it exactly right on  February 2, 2016

 Well, that’s settled. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz will not be the 2016 Republican nominee for president.
At least not if recent history is any guide. It has been 16 years since Republican caucus-goers here have accurately picked the eventual GOP nominee for president. In other words, not once in this entire century has Iowa picked the winner for Republicans.
Ted Cruz joins former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and ex-Sen. Rick Santorum, who won the caucuses in 2008 and 2012, respectively.
Neither Mr. Huckabee nor Mr. Santorum were able to convert those Iowa victories into any kind of groundswell of support outside the frozen cornfields of Iowa.
Mr. Cruz carefully followed the same playbook deployed in the caucuses won by his predecessors.
First, he built a massive and highly organized grassroots ground game. It was impressive. Also, Mr. Cruz spent significant money and a huge amount of time and energy courting Iowa voters.
Mr. Cruz was handsomely rewarded with the highest number of caucus votes of any Republican in history. Which means he is really popular — in Iowa.
Similarly, Mr. Huckabee and Mr. Santorum bet their entire presidential campaigns on Iowa, and it paid off for them as well. At least, in terms of winning Iowa. In the end, of course, those victories turned out to be meaningless.
Mr. Cruz also followed in the footsteps of previous Iowa winners in that he shamelessly and overtly deployed his religious faith as a guiding — perhaps overriding — reason for electing him. The man was literally quoting scripture during his campaign events. This preaching culminated in the creepy footage of Mr. Cruz directing his supporters to “awaken the body of Christ.” Ick.
Obviously, it is a strategy that works in Iowa. But I am also pretty sure that God is not so hot about somebody awakening the body of Christ for personal political purposes. Sounds, well, a little self-centered and diabolical.
And, unfortunately for Mr. Cruz, it doesn’t usually work so well going forward. Even in a place like South Carolina where they love their Christian politicians, Mr. Trump is beating Mr. Cruz by 15 points, according to the polls.
The problem for Mr. Cruz is that it is undeniable that Mr. Trump has at least broken through to Christian voters. Many of them trust him and believe that he is serious about fighting for them and protecting religious liberty.
Mr. Cruz’s impressive win Monday night, of course, sparked a wildfire of giddy gloating among the Great Punditocracy who find Donald Trump so vulgar and repellent. It is like the only thing that matters to them is winning.
But Donald Trump had the last laugh when he walked out on the stage to deliver his concession speech.
For weeks and months we have been told that Mr. Trump cannot handle losing. His entire campaign is built around winning every time. And if he loses Iowa, we were told again and again and again, Mr. Trump would fall apart. The first chink in his armor would utterly crumple him to the ground.
Only, instead, Mr. Trump came out with his family and delivered a wonderfully gracious and funny and hopeful concession speech and told his supporters how honored he was to come in second place in Iowa.

Alas, the Great Punditocracy keeps alive their perfect streak of being wrong about everything when it comes to Donald J. Trump.
Nick Sanchez at Newsmax gave the history on February 1st.Ted Cruz can now be added to the list to make 7.
6 Iowa Republican Caucus Winners Who Didn't Become President

By Nick Sanchez   |   Monday, 01 Feb 2016 
The Iowa caucuses have been the first major electoral event in the race for the presidency since 1972, however they are a generally unreliable predictor of who will ultimately win the Republican Party's nomination, much less the general election.

"The winner of the GOP Iowa caucuses usually does not win the second nominating contest, the New Hampshire primaries, and more often than not loses the overall nomination as well," CBS News wrote during the last presidential election cycle.

The Christian Science Monitor added
 that "Iowa might be less about deciding the winner, and more about confirming the losers," and notes that no party nominee has ever finished below the top four in Iowa.

In fact, since 1972, the only Republican candidate to have won both the Iowa caucuses and the presidency is George W. Bush in the 2000 race.

Gathered below are the six men who won Iowa, but ultimately lost their bid for the presidency. Candidates who appear underlined went on to win the Republican nomination.

1. Rick Santorum (2012) — The former senator from Pennsylvania defeated former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, however it was the latter that went on to secure the nomination. Romney eventually lost the general election to sitting President Barack Obama, The Des Moines Register reported.

Rick Santorum 24%
Mitt Romney 24%
Ron Paul 21%
Newt Gingrich 13%

2. Mike Huckabee (2008) — Mike Huckabee handily defeated Romney, Fred Thompson, and John McCain in the Iowa caucus, but it was McCain who went on to secure the nomination. McCain eventually lost to then-Sen. Barack Obama.

Mike Huckabee 34%
Mitt Romney 25%
Fred Thompson 13%
John McCain 13% 

3. Bob Dole (1996) — The senator from Kansas defeated Pat Buchanan to win both the Iowa caucus and the Republican nomination, but lost the general election to sitting President Bill Clinton.

Bob Dole 26% 
Pat Buchanan 23%
Lamar Alexander 17%
Steve Forbes 10% 

4. Bob Dole (1988) — Both Bob Dole and Pat Robertson defeated Vice President George H. W. Bush in the Iowa primary, but it was the latter who would eventually secure the party's nomination, and go on to win the presidency.

Bob Dole 37%
Pat Robertson 24%
George Bush 18%
Jack Kemp 11% 

5. George H. W. Bush (1980) — Bush, the former congressman, ambassador, and Director of Central Intelligence defeated Ronald Reagan in the Iowa caucus, but it was of course the former Gov. of California that won the GOP nomination and presidency.

George Bush 31% 
Ronald Reagan 29%
Howard Baker 15%
John Connally 9% 

6. Gerald Ford (1976) — The only president in modern history who was appointed rather than elected won the Iowa caucus as well as his party's nomination. He famously lost to Jimmy Carter in the general election, however.

(Sample precincts straw poll)
Gerald Ford 264 
Ronald Reagan 248
Undecided 62

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